APLMA Annual Conference 年度会议

（请在本页下半部查看中文翻译。)

Key Takeaways from Heads of Syndication Roundtable Panel

Lower rates are a positive…

Higher US dollar base rates over the past two years have dampened demand for syndicated loans in Asia Pacific, driving many borrowers to pivot to local currency alternatives. Speaking ahead of the September 18 US rate decision, the panel expressed confidence that lower rates will boost US dollar borrowing, seeing a brighter outlook for 2025. The big deals currently in the market are a sign of things to come. Banks and credit funds will both benefit from a pickup in activity, though credit funds with fixed all-in return targets may have to get more creative in order to meet their investors’ expectations.

…but there are still hurdles to overcome

Syndicated loan volumes in APAC are not just a function of US interest rates, and bankers stress that borrowers have a range of options, including local currencies, bilaterals and bond markets. Some caution around credit quality is also warranted, especially in sectors where structural problems cannot be solved by rate cuts alone. Commercial real estate remains a troubled area in many Asian markets – notably Hong Kong.

M&A is showing real signs of life

M&A financing accounted for only 4.3% of the APAC syndicated loan market in 1H24, according to LPC, down from double digits pre-Covid. That figure is set to rise, with a mammoth sponsor-backed financing for Blackstone’s acquisition of data centre business AirTrunk on the horizon. Lower rates should narrow the valuation gap between buyers and sellers, and bankers see a lot of activity already going on behind the scenes that will hopefully result in more deals coming to market. Banks are open to refinancings of existing private equity assets, but remain wary of dividend recaps that simply increase leverage on the underlying business.

Lenders are wary of looser terms

In a slow market, banks have noted increased competition among lenders. One recent private equity-backed deal closed with 19 MLAs. Data centre financings remain extremely competitive, despite a deluge of supply. There is some concern that the strong liquidity is leading to looser terms and lower pricing, and bankers have found it hard to push back on borrowers’ requests in the current environment. That said, the panel is hopeful that higher volumes in 2025 will reduce pressure on fees and margins.

Are market participants still too pessimistic?

The syndication heads all expect volumes in 2025 to be up on 2024, with the consensus view calling for at least a 10% increase and some predicting closer to 30%. Southeast Asia, India and Australia are all seen as bright spots. There are risks to the outlook, including the looming US presidential elections and a sharp slowdown in the US economy. But the panel was surprised by an audience poll that showed a majority expect volumes in 2025 to grow by less than 10%. Market participants are understandably wary of predicting a recovery after a disappointing couple of years – but it may be telling that the heads of syndication have a more optimistic outlook.

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银团贷款圆桌会议小组讨论摘要

较低的利率对市场正面

过去两年美元基准利率的上升抑压了亚太地区对银团贷款的需求，促使许多借款人转向至本币贷款。本会议当时正值9 月 18 日美联储公布利率决定前，小组讲者相信较低的利率将提振美元借贷，并认为 2025 年的市场前景更为明朗。目前市场上正进行的大型交易项目已预示了未来走势，银行和信贷基金都将有望从活动回升中受益，但其中具有固定总回报目标的信贷基金仍需要更创新的方案才能满足投资者的期望。

市场仍需克服各种障碍

美国利率水平并非影响亚太区银团贷款量的单一因素，讲者强调借款人有多种融资选择，包括本币贷款、双边贷款和债券市场。市场对信贷质量也维持谨慎，尤其是针对存在结构性问题的行业，非单靠降息问题就能迎刃而解。在许多亚洲市场，尤其是香港，商业房地产仍然是一个棘手的领域。

并购市场表现活跃

根据 LPC数据，2024年上半年并购融资仅占亚太地区银团贷款市场的 4.3%，仍低于新冠疫情之前的两位数份额。讲者认为这一数字势将上升，黑石收购数据中心公司 AirTrunk的巨额融资项目会是一大支持。较低的利率应该会缩小买卖双方之间的估值差距，讲者表示已经留意到市场行动活跃，有望迎来更多的交易项目。银行对私募股权资产的再融资持开放态度，但对会增加相关业务杠杆率的股息重估维持谨慎。

贷方担心条款趋向宽松

在市场放缓的情况下，银行注意到贷方之间的竞争加剧，最近一笔私募股权交易项目总共有19 家牵头行（MLAs）参与。尽管项目量供应充足，但数据中心融资项目的竞争仍然剧烈。有讲者担心市场充裕的流动性会导致贷款条款趋向宽松和定价更低，而银行已发现在当前环境下很难拒绝借款人的要求。尽管如此，讲者期望 2025 年更高的项目流量将有助减轻费用和盈利方面的压力。

市场参与者是否仍然过于悲观？

一众银团贷款主管均预计 2025 年的交易量将比 2024 年有所增加，同时一致预期市场增长至少达10%，部分甚至预测接近 30%。东南亚、印度和澳大利亚都被视为重点关注市场。虽然如此，市场前景仍存在风险，包括即将举行的美国总统大选和急剧放缓的美国经济增长。令讲者们感到惊讶的是，会议现场实时投票的结果显示大多数与会人士预计 2025 年的交易量增长将低于10%。可以理解的是，市场参与者在经历了令人失望的几年后对复苏的预期保持谨慎态度。这也意味着银团贷款主管们对市场前景相较之下更为乐观。

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