APLMA Annual Conference 年度会议

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Key Takeaways from Shipping and Aviation Finance Panel

Long-distance transport is a resilient asset class

Demand for air and maritime transport is robust and the long-term trends are positive. It is notable that almost all aircraft leasing companies came through the pandemic with their business models intact. These two segments, however, face very different dynamics in the short term. Having suffered from travel restrictions and grounded planes, the aviation sector is now ramping up rapidly. Shipping companies, meanwhile, saw unprecedented profits during the pandemic due to e-commerce growth and inventory restocking, but now face margin pressure and a potential slowdown in 2025.

Diversification is a priority for borrowers

The stresses of the pandemic era underlined the value of diversification when it comes to funding sources – especially for the aviation sector. Post-pandemic, both industries have been rethinking their fundraising strategies. Container shipping companies begin to de-lever amidst the high interest environment and continue to reinvest their profits in new vessels. Aviation leasing companies have benefited from access to long-term capital markets and sale-and-leaseback strategies, and very recently aircraft securitization has returned as an alternative to bank finance.

Banks aren’t the only game in town

International banks remain major lenders to the transport sector, but the bank lending market has consolidated dramatically, and margins are now being eroded as lenders compete for a small group of top-tier borrowers. Since the pandemic, Chinese leasing companies have embraced transport assets, and the ample liquidity available in Asia is now attracting global borrowers. Smaller shipping companies, meanwhile, find it much harder to access bank liquidity, and may need to look to specialist institutions. Credit funds have found some very attractive opportunities in the sector as they can lend against the cycle.

Sustainability is a long-term focus

Both industries are under pressure to improve energy efficiency and transition to cleaner technologies, with aviation focusing on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and container shipping investing in vessels capable of running on cleaner fuels in the future as well as Energy Efficiency Technologies. Some companies have used sustainability-linked loans to support their transition, but concerns around greenwashing are limiting their appeal for borrowers and lenders in the aviation sector. Europe is leading the way in green shipping initiatives, offering a variety of government programmes, subsidies, and grants that present new financing opportunities for environmentally focused projects.

Expect the unexpected

Aviation and shipping are affected by any disruption to international trade flows, which makes geopolitical risks a major concern. The US presidential election is being closely watched: panellists worry that a Trump win would bring more tariffs and reduce US engagement in the world, which would be a negative for shipping. Tariffs could also trigger inflation and force another round of interest rate hikes, which would add to borrowing costs for aircraft leasing companies. Regulatory scrutiny at Boeing has made it harder for aircraft owners to expand their fleets, and additional supply chain delays could be another source of disruption for the aviation sector.

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航运和航空融资小组讨论摘要

长途运输是具韧性的资产类别

讲者们认为空运和海运的需求强劲，长期发展趋势相当正面。值得注意的是，几乎所有的飞机租赁公司都在无需改变业务模式的情况下成功克服了新冠疫情。但在短期内，这两个细分市场仍面临着截然不同的状况。在遭受旅游限制和飞机停飞的困境后，航空业现已回复迅速发展。而另一方面，受益于电子商务的增长和库存补货，航运公司在疫情期间的利润水平创出新高，但现在需要面对盈利压力和 2025 年可能出现的增长放缓。

对借款人而言，多元化属重中之重

对于尤其航空等行业，疫情时期的压力突显了资金源多元化的重要性。疫情后，海运及航空两个行业均在重新考虑他们的融资策略。在高利率环境下，集装箱航运公司开始去杠杆，并持续再投资利润于新船。而航空租赁公司则受益于长期资本的参与和售后回租战略，近日飞机租赁资产证券化作为银行融资的替代方案再次回归。

银行不再是唯一的选择

国际银行仍然是运输业的主要贷款来源，但随着银行贷款市场大幅整合，贷款人为争取为数不多的优质借款人展开剧烈竞争，盈利也因此正被侵蚀。自疫情以来，中国租赁公司开始投资运输资产，而现在亚洲充裕的流动性正在吸引全球借款人。与此同时，小型的航运公司较难获得银行资金，因此可能需要寻求其他专门机构的帮助。由于信贷基金能够逆周期放贷，它们在运输业也发掘了一些极具吸引力的机会。

可持续发展是长期重点

航运及空运两个行业都面临着提高能源效率和过渡至清洁能源的压力。航空业聚焦于可持续航空燃料（SAF），而集装箱航运企业则投资能够在未来使用更清洁燃料的船舶，以及能源效率技术。一些企业已经透过可持续发展挂钩贷款来支持它们的转型，但对漂绿的担忧限制了它们对航空业借款人和贷款人的吸引力。欧洲在绿色航运倡议方面处于领先地位，并提供各种政府计划、补贴和资助，为以环境为重点的项目提供新的融资机会。

其他可能出现的意外风险

航空和航运会直接被任何干扰国际贸易流动的事件所影响，这使得地缘政治风险成为一个主要忧虑。即将举行的美国总统大选受到密切关注，讲者担忧特朗普获选会引入更多关税，美国减少参与世界贸易将对航运业产生负面影响。关税还可能引发通胀并迫使展开新一轮加息，这将增加飞机租赁公司的借贷成本。此外，对波音的监管审查使飞机机主更难扩大机队，而额外的供应链延误可能成为干扰航空业的另一个因素。

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