This commentary builds upon LinkedIn's Global State Of The Labour Market newsletter, with additional details on APAC-specific data and commentary.
Hiring recovery continues gradually; outlook diverges across different countries.
- Australia: The LinkedIn Hiring Rate had a 15.5% decline year-over-year, slightly below the 6-month average of 15.8% and 12-month average of 18.1%. Continued inflation in Australia makes interest rate hikes possible but challenging given sluggish economic growth.
- India: The LinkedIn Hiring Rate had a 3.6% decline year-over-year, below the 6-month average of 7.9% and 12-month average of 15.0%. After falling for several months, inflation in India increased this month. It remains to see whether this is a one-off aberration or the beginning of another series of inflation. However, given that economic growth remains strong in India, there are more fiscal and monetary policy options available right now.
- Singapore: The LinkedIn Hiring Rate had a 14.2% decline year-over-year, below the 6-month average of 18.4% and 12-month average of 23.0%. Inflation remains stable, and the GDP outlook is positive for 2024.
Differences in hiring trends and job search intensity rates also signal divergence in outlook across countries.?
- Australia: There is a 5.9% increase in job search intensity for July 2024 compared to January 2024. When we compare the YOY trend of job search intensity against hiring rate, we find that hiring is relatively flat while job search intensity is up slightly since the beginning of the year. This signals a slowing economy, with search intensity rising due to increased competition between job seekers.
- India: There is a 5.3% increase in job search intensity for July 2024 compared to January 2024. When we compare the YOY trend of job search intensity against hiring rate, we find that both are trending upwards since the beginning of the year. This signals that the economy is growing, with hiring activity being driven by workers changing jobs.
- Singapore: There is a 7.8% increase in job search intensity for July 2024 compared to January 2024. When we compare the YOY trend of job search intensity against hiring rate, we find that both are trending upwards slightly since the beginning of the year. This signals that the economy is potentially starting to grow, as companies pick up the pace of hiring and workers start looking for new job opportunities.
LinkedIn Hiring Rate (LHR) looks at the year-over-year % change in hiring rate, which is a measure of hires in a given time period divided by LinkedIn membership. The 3-month rolling average is plotted in the charts.?
Job Search Intensity (JSI) is the average number of job applications per applicant monthly, based on job applications submitted by members in the same country as the job posting. The analysis is performed using paid jobs on LinkedIn. The 3-month rolling average is plotted in the charts.
