Antisemitic Violence in Canada

Introduction

For nearly two decades, data from B’nai Brith Canada reveal that reported antisemitic violence across Canada followed an exponential decay, dropping at a steadily accelerating rate until 2020. However, beginning in 2021, this downward trajectory no longer holds. In this #LinkedIn article, I present my analytical approach—centered on a Poisson regression model—to show how antisemitic incidents declined exponentially through 2020, and why recent data appear to deviate from that expected path. My hope is that this independent research proves useful to Jewish communities seeking to deepen their understanding of contemporary antisemitic violence.

Data Source

The foundation for this research comes from publicly available data provided by B’nai Brith Canada. These records include yearly counts of reported antisemitic violence from 2002 to 2023. With nearly two decades of data, it is possible to observe long-term patterns and detect any departures from them over time.

Analytical Approach

To model the annual counts of antisemitic violence, I used a Poisson regression approach. Poisson regression is often used for count data, such as the number of reported incidents.

Modeling Historic Trends (2002–2020):

• I fit a Poisson regression model to data from 2002 through 2020, capturing the gradual decline in antisemitic incidents reported during those years.

Prediction Intervals via Bootstrapping:

• To assess how recent data (2021–2023) compare to expectations, I adopted a bootstrap approach.
• By resampling the 2002–2020 data multiple times, I estimated how much uncertainty exists in the model’s predictions.
• This generated prediction intervals for 2021–2023 that help us see whether the latest counts fit within expected bounds or diverge significantly.

You can find the R code used in this analysis here: GitHub Repository.

Results

My findings are displayed in a visual comparison of observed data vs. model forecasts. The model’s predictions (2021-2023), which extend the earlier downward trajectory (2002-2020), show a clear confidence band indicating where we would expect future data to lie if the previous trend of reduction in antisemitic violence had continued. The actual 2021–2023 counts lie above that band, suggesting a meaningful shift away from the earlier decline.

Interpretation

Until 2020, antisemitic incidents seemed on track to keep decreasing—potentially disappearing if the trend had held. However, the data from 2021 onward break from this pattern. What might explain this change? Some possibilities include:

• Shifts in Social Attitudes or Demographics: Canada’s population is dynamic, and new groups with varying attitudes toward Jewish communities may influence reported incidents.
• Impact of Global Events: From the social and economic strain of the COVID-19 pandemic to intensified Middle East conflicts, global developments can reverberate locally.

Pinpointing the exact causes requires deeper investigation, including demographic studies, media analyses, and examinations of local and global political climates.

Conclusion

While historical data suggested a steady decline in antisemitic violence across Canada, recent observations point to a renewed and worrying rise. As a community, it is crucial that we continue monitoring these trends and delve into the social, political, and demographic factors that might be driving them. Heightened awareness, robust data collection, and ongoing research are vital for developing effective responses—and ultimately, for fostering a safer and more inclusive environment for everyone.

References

1. Efron B, Tibshirani R (1993). An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
2. Geisser, Seymour (1993), Predictive Inference, CRC Press.
3. Hilbe, J. M. (2007). Negative Binomial Regression. Cambridge University Press.

Learn more about contemporary antisemitism

Here are some non-mathematical materials that I personally enjoy, even if they do not constitute references for this research.

Henry Abramson's Analysis of Post-October 7h Antisemitism

Israellycool vs Free Palestine Printing

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this article are my own and do not represent the positions of any institution.

Contact

I am available to take on select statistical consulting projects alongside my current research. To learn more or discuss your specific needs, please visit my website: Homepage