Antifragile vs Resilience - the opportunity to gain from disruption

Antifragile – the word that has shaped my studies for the past two years, hit the news today courtesy of the Treasurer Jim Chalmers? Some journalists were rather quick to denounce this as a fad, without pausing to consider what being Antifragility actually entails and why it is time to stop calling for resilience in 2024. Simply put: Resilience - is no longer enough!

Antifragile might have been coined by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, but it is not just a fad – Dear Spectator.? Unlike fragile systems that break under stress, Antifragile systems become stronger and more resilient when exposed to chaos. ??Antifragility – far from being a #TREND - draws upon established theory, such as Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety (that a well founded system has an internal complexity able to match that of its environment and thus confront and exploit adversity) and in a world where resilience has been overused to an extent, it has become almost meaningless, being able to withstand shocks and come out ahead of the enemy (whether another Prime or nation) is essential.

These potential threats and the major disruptions we have experienced in the past 5 years (lets make a list: Bushfires, Covid, Everclear, Ukraine…) with an Antifragile mindset, have particular value in their ability to provide fresh instruction to future decision-makers. ?If ?(and herein lies the rub) we can seize upon the opportunity to consider the gains and benefits created through times of disorder and disarray rather than seek to be resilient and return to that we knew before.?

Antifragility, as a driving concept, is particularly relevant in the Global supply Chain and Defence contexts, where a situation is dynamic and unpredictable, requiring agility and innovation to stay ahead of the future threat. Businesses label themselves "Disruptors" as badges of honour - how do they seize the day (Carpe Diem!) in the face of external, global disorders?

Another associated term worth knowing is Eustress – the condition of being subjected to beneficial stresses in a manner that allows for gains. An athlete understands Eustress – undergoing challenge in order to come out stronger. It’s a little bit Nietzsche, if you’re that way inclined..

In the Defence environment, being Antifragile means more than just being able to recover from disruptions—it's about businesses and operations thriving in uncertain and changing environments. Defence technology and the companies that deliver the next generation systems should not just be robust; they actively seek out challenges and use them as opportunities for growth and improvement. This may involve constantly evolving strategies, technologies, and organizational structures at all levels – the Defence customer, the Prime and supply chains, all able to adapt to new threats and challenges and deliver capability ready to meet the issues of the day. Taking an Antifragile approach to the choices made around the decision not to deploy a warship to the Red Sea is an interesting study in itself… however the evolving use of UAVs by Ukrainian forces in response to the ongoing conflict is most definitely an example of the Antifragile mindset in action.

Antifragility encourages constant innovation and learning from disadavantage (e.g. supply chain failures), leading to the development of dynamic systems able to withstand unexpected shocks and disruptions. In contrast, a purely Resilient system may become complacent and fail to adapt to new threats, leaving it vulnerable in the long run. Whereas Antifragility fosters a culture of continuous improvement and agility, essential qualities for maintaining a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving environment.

The Primes, SMEs and complex supply chains delivering and sustaining key capabilities – whether a warship, fighter aircraft or armoured vehicle - are critical in ensuring the ongoing readiness of the ADF. More importantly, these Disruptors are called upon to rapidly develop technology to provide superiority against the threat. The organisations and their operations must transcend resilience – despite the word being used 42 times in the DIDS…, as was seen in across Industry during WWII. The growth in technology, the flow on to the civilian, commercial and early Space seeking world illustrates the value of Antifragility, as exhorted by Churchill, in not wasting a good crisis!

Adopting Antifragility as a strategy across the Defence sector offers opportunities to step forwards – faster than threats and competitors, ?due to its proactive and adaptive nature. While Resilience focuses on bouncing back from disruptions, Antifragility goes a step further by gaining strength and improving from dealing with adversity. It may mean saying goodbye to products that a company has made its fortune upon (Kodak serves as an example here) or pivoting in times of stress.

In the Australian Defence Industry, where the landscape is characterized by rapid technological advancements and geopolitical uncertainties, to be Antifragile is to encourage a mindset that embraces experimentation, learns from failures, and seeks new pathways to find benefit and gain in times of disorder for industry, Defence and Australia.