ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE GOVERNANCE ENVIRONMENT

Thank you to APEX (Carl Trottier, James Kendrick, and Deputy Minister Jean-Francois Tremblay) for inviting me back to share my ideas on the techno-demographic future of Canada and public governance with nearly a thousand executives of the federal public service. Thank you also to these many participants. Nobel Laureate Maria Ressa preceded my talk and explored the important topic of disinformation and freedom of expression.

APEX is a dynamic community of 8,000 executives who manage the largest organization and the largest operating budget in the country (more than 300,000 employees, the program expenses of the federal budget 2023-2024 are $446B, or 15.9% of GDP). The professional success of these managers is essential to the proper execution of our public services, in terms of the delivery of services to citizens, innovation, public safety, law enforcement, budget control and of the continuous improvement and motivation of our civil service workers. We cannot stress enough the importance of these managers and the support that the private sector, associations, and academia must offer them.

WHAT DID I TALK ABOUT? Well, this might interest you.

- THINK LONG TERM, IT'S GOOD FOR YOU (and for us)

We must get out of the reactive hyperactivity of elected officials faced with change, and better reflect, anticipate, and plan for the world of tomorrow. (1) Long-term thinking is possible, (2) necessary and (3) good for government success and its own moral, as well as the mental health of its personnel.

- THE FUTURE IS ACCELERATING: PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

My June 2015 “Canada Towards 2030” presentation at APEX outlined a series of phenomena and changes between 2013 and 2030, or over 17 years. Happy with my foresight but not with the predicted events (pandemic, inflation, end of BRICS, rise of AI and automation, problems with China, return of populism and divergences, etc.), many of my forecasts happened in seven years (2020) rather than in 17 years. Proof that the future is accelerating -- medium-term planning (more palatable to many) becomes the “new” long-term planning. After years of short-term and reactive thinking in Ottawa and elsewhere, we must restore strong pro-active functions in terms of both public policy planning and foresight within each of our departments and agencies.

- “THE GREAT TRANSITION” IS A GREAT CHALLENGE – REQUIRES MORE LONG-TERM THINKING, MORE INNOVATION, MORE POLICY PLANNING AND MORE PARTICIPANTS.

We leave the Great Integration era (1990-2020, global village, The World is Flat) for the Great Transition: a period between geopolitical, economic, climatic, techno-industrial, informational, and socio-demographic orders-disorders-orders. Governance challenges will be great at the macro level (megatrends) and micro level (wars, new pandemics, cyber-attacks, potential American instability, immigration, technologies, competitiveness, etc.) Thinking further, anticipating and planning are essential steps in structuring our next actions, in implementing change management, in motivating employees and engaging them on long-term goals, and in stimulating innovation. It is time to demonstrate our vocation to the State and for the well-being of future generations. The Great Transition will be better lived if civil society participates constructively as well and if the efforts of our public service are open-minded and “open-doors”.

- THE TECHNO-REVOLUTION IS YOUR LIFETIME CHANCE TO CHANGE

The productivity and quality gains available to the public sector if it uses new technologies (virtual and personal government agent for each citizen, ChatGPT, big data, automation of digital services, etc.) and new sources of data (economic, material, environmental, health and spatial) create a historic opportunity to change, to modernize our institutions and to maximize our public resources. Don’t miss it.

- GET OUT OF YOUR OFFICE – OPEN YOUR DOORS AND YOUR MINDS.

To do this, end the silos, the apathic and bureaucratic nonsense as well as the isolation. Managers need to go out of their offices more often to gain new external contacts and know-how, themselves capable of helping public agencies change leaders. When the speed of change outside your organization accelerates faster than the one inside, it's time to get outside, find out why and how to adapt.

- WITH YOUR UP-TO-DATE SCENARIOS, YOU CAN ANTICIPATE, ADAPT AND ACT.

In times of (1) great uncertainty (when we lack the imagination to draft the “possible” and its consequences) and (2) great resignation (what could be more reinvigorating and unifying than coming together to explore the future?), scenarios of the future with governance implications are essential. It is necessary to develop four to eight future narratives and find their impacts, keep them up to date, empower employees around the comprehension of their significance, demonstrate creativity and plan Bs, and exchange with “foresight fans” from other departments and the private sector. A long-term ministerial strategy should not follow an electoral cycle.

- THINK LONG TERM, BE GOOD ANCESTORS!

As I see it from my telescope, civil servants have two duties. That of thinking about and providing for the needs of young and future Canadians (those who are not born yet). The vocation and goodwill that animate our public servants encompass this desire to leave behind a better world to the next generations – a message regularly neglected, but essential. Wouldn't you be proud to hear in heaven "I had good ancestors, they were civil servants/politicians, they made the right decisions". Good long-term decisions are of course based on good ideas, but also on avoiding bad ideas. The second duty of public service executives is to be good guardians of the “bottomless well of bad ideas” so that none escape, even those favorite ones with politicians.

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FIVE PERSONAL SUGGESTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM TO EXPLORE- these are my opinions only, not of my audience!

1. Rebuild in each ministry a community of employees, teams and experts dedicated to the long-term, to future scenarios and to the planning of long-term government policies, investments, and actions. Establish a permanent monitoring system, with a calendar of reviews and simulations.

2. In order to increase the innovation required to meet long-term challenges, equip yourselves with more program experimentation and innovative practices (pilot projects, case studies, PPP grants), take risks and tolerate failure.

3. Let's build bridges and brainstorm ideas with “the Rendez-Vous of Public Service and Civil Society” which could be open-doors days for each department, two Saturdays a year, from coast to coast. This would be the opportunity to show what you are doing, what are your mission and plans, your current problems and, importantly, your needs (external help and solutions). Would add a noble and profitable transparency too.

4. Greater collaboration and social innovation would be more easily organized in the context of competitions, prizes or challenges organized with the private sector and civil society. The objective is to promote “crowd-based social outsourcing”, itself providing solutions from outside to inside the government. A digital platform dedicated to this seems possible to me. (The “Facebook” of experienced enthusiastic citizens willing to help the public service.) This would bring citizens and the community sector closer to the federal government.

5. Create a "Civic Service Year", a one-year paid internship in government for young Canadian adults and make it easy to apply and stimulating to participate in. It will broaden the appeal and sensibility to public service and policy issues. Maybe universities and colleges will look into crediting some of that experience towards a diploma.

6. Somewhat inspired by the European Council, set up a permanent Council of Canada or Federal Council of the Provinces bringing together federal and provincial leaders on a mandatory basis for one full day every month (=better national agenda, real constructive and on-going/regular dialogue). This would allow for better long-term planning, better communication, and for both (1) thinking and preparing for issues such as future challenges and (2) sharing best practices. A national long-term vision would emerge; more socio-economic cohesion and more adaptability in the face of long-term risks/opportunities as well. I bet it would create more common projects addressing the long-term (Federal/Province(s) or Province(s)/Province(s)) and reduce the cynicism of those disenchanted with federal-provincial relations.