Anti-Qatar Embargo Grinds Toward Strategic Failure

Centuries of history reveal a simple strategic truth: embargoes and blockades frequently fail to coerce states into making policy changes sought by the embargoing countries and often create unintended consequences.

Embargoing Qatar was a risky decision without a clear endgame that does not appear to have taken into account the ample—and easily accessible— historical records of the many campaigns that have failed, as well as those that succeeded. The reality is that when the target of an embargo or blockade (1) has a small population, (2) is exquisitely well-resourced, (3) is not substantially dependent on the embargoing countries as trade partners for goods that cannot be obtained from other sources, (4) has access to seaborne commerce, and (5) has had significant time and warning to prepare for exactly such a contingency, the action against it will very likely fail to coerce it into making the concessions sought by the embargoers. Full Brief here