The Anti-Guide to Predictable Marketing

Picture this: You’re in the control tower of an airport, the room is filled with the steady hum of machinery and the faint buzz of chatter. Outside, an airplane is approaching, and the tension is palpable. One of the controllers suggests turning on the search lights to guide the plane in. It’s the logical thing to do. But then, another voice interjects, saying, “No, that’s just what they’ll be expecting us to do.”

This scenario, lifted from the classic comedy Airplane! (1980), highlights a fundamental truth about business and, more specifically, marketing. While most aspects of a business, like finance, operations, and logistics, thrive on conventional logic and best practices, marketing is a different beast altogether. In marketing, playing it safe and following the crowd can lead to your brand blending in rather than standing out.

Now, imagine the world of a marketer. It can feel like a lonely battlefield, surrounded by colleagues who, much like the air traffic controller, prefer the safety of the predictable. In contrast, a marketer needs to think like Kramer, the character who fears the obvious. This mindset often puts marketers at odds with the rest of the company, making their journey both challenging and isolating.

In most companies, predictability is comfort. Predictability means lower risk, easier forecasting, and a sense of control. But in marketing, predictability is the enemy. It’s what makes your ads look like everyone else’s, your message sound like a whisper in a crowded room. To truly captivate your audience, you need to be a little unpredictable.

Think about it. When was the last time you were genuinely surprised by an ad or a campaign? Probably not often, because so much of what we see is predictable. It’s like walking through a forest where every tree looks the same. But imagine stumbling upon a treehouse in that forest. It would catch your attention, right? That’s what unpredictability does in marketing. It’s the treehouse in the forest.

Consider the case of a small, underdog brand taking on industry giants. Conventional logic would suggest sticking to tried-and-true methods to avoid risks. But an underdog can’t afford to blend in. They need to disrupt, surprise, and engage in ways that the giants can’t or won’t. It’s not about reckless abandon but about calculated unpredictability. It’s about looking at the same data everyone else has and seeing something different.

The real challenge for marketers is to convince the rest of the company that unpredictability isn’t recklessness. It’s strategic. It’s thoughtful. And most importantly, it’s necessary. In a world where brands are constantly vying for attention, the predictable path leads to invisibility.

Real-World Examples of Strategic Unpredictability

Let’s look at some brands that have taken the road less traveled and reaped the benefits. These examples show that unpredictability, when done right, can create a lasting impact.

1. Old Spice: The Man Your Man Could Smell Like

Remember when Old Spice was considered your grandfather’s cologne? That all changed with the “The Man Your Man Could Smell Like” campaign. Old Spice took a massive risk by stepping away from the traditional, boring ads that dominated the men’s grooming market. Instead, they created a campaign that was quirky, humorous, and completely unexpected. The result? The ad went viral, rejuvenated the brand, and significantly increased sales. By being unpredictable, Old Spice didn’t just sell a product; they reinvented their brand image.

2. Airbnb: Breaking the Hospitality Mold

Airbnb started as a simple idea of renting out an air mattress in a living room. The founders could have tried to fit into the traditional hospitality industry, focusing on conventional marketing tactics. Instead, they embraced the unique nature of their offering and marketed it as a community experience. Their campaigns highlighted personal stories and local experiences, something completely different from the sterile, impersonal ads of big hotel chains. This unpredictability helped them carve out a new niche in the market, transforming from a quirky startup into a global phenomenon.

3. Tesla: Marketing Without Marketing

Tesla, under the leadership of Elon Musk, has taken an unconventional approach to marketing. Rather than investing heavily in traditional advertising, Tesla relies on word-of-mouth, social media, and the bold vision of its CEO to drive its marketing. Elon Musk’s unpredictable and often controversial presence on platforms like Twitter (X - now) keeps Tesla in the public eye without spending a dime on ads. This approach has created a cult-like following and positioned Tesla as a cutting-edge, innovative brand in the crowded automotive market.

4. Dove: Real Beauty Campaign

Dove’s “Real Beauty” campaign broke the mold of traditional beauty advertising. Instead of showcasing flawless supermodels, Dove featured real women of all shapes, sizes, and ages. This unexpected move resonated deeply with consumers who were tired of unrealistic beauty standards. The campaign sparked conversations about self-esteem and body positivity, making Dove not just a beauty brand but a champion of a social cause. This unpredictability not only boosted Dove’s sales but also significantly enhanced brand loyalty.

Conclusion: The Value of Unpredictability

The success stories of brands like Old Spice, Airbnb, Tesla, and Dove demonstrate that stepping outside conventional boundaries can yield significant rewards. These companies didn’t succeed by playing it safe; they dared to be different and thought creatively.

As marketers, we often find ourselves surrounded by colleagues who favor the safe and predictable. Yet, it’s our role to challenge the status quo and introduce innovative ideas. It’s about finding the balance between risk and reward and recognising that the greatest gains often come from the boldest moves.

In essence, unpredictability in marketing isn’t about being random or reckless; it’s about being strategic and thoughtful. It’s about understanding your audience, anticipating their needs, and surprising them in ways that create lasting connections.

So, next time you’re crafting a campaign or planning a strategy, remember the value of the unexpected. Embrace it thoughtfully, and your brand can achieve remarkable differentiation and success.