Another Risk Reasoning Case with Blast Simulation and Statistical Sampling-Need of the Right Tools

A recent project with large infrastructure has demonstrate the complexity and subjectivity of risk reasoning-to choose the rational level of conservativeness and to manage from there on. At least as first step, should let the risk taker see the whole distribution pattern first and after that, let's 'gamble' the best return together as partners..

a side discussion for risk distribution has shown the importance to treat probability distribution density function as multi-modal rather than single one to appreciate the true picture of risk..

As for structure dynamic numerical simulation tools, there must be a philosophical term to describe how valuable for the right tool to solve the right problem and never stop searching for the right , new path, instead of perfecting your 'glorious' old tools. I have very much been fascinated by the FEM (finite element method 有限元分析)'s beautiful discretization treatment of continuous materials equations with Hermite interpolation functions, Gaussian numerical integrations, linearization of the equations by Taylor expansions with clarity in error analysis.. However, the FEM can only answer "Will the structure fail or not?" Unfortunately, it is very difficult to use the FEM for the second important question, which is "How does the structure fail?" Although displacement of structural elements at failure may become tens of meters, analysis using the FEM could be performed till the start of failure, which means tens of centimeters at most[1]... The AEM (Applied Element Method) instead are very smartly using connecting springs around a rigid element in forming the stiffness matrix while keeping the degree of freedom at center of elements, thus nicely avoided using the shape functions and say 'bye' to all the 'completeness and compatibility conditions'.. It's like suddenly you wear your clothing inside-out and fits (but you never thought you could do that previously)..

The risk reasoning process continuous as long as we need to help them to have peace in mind..

[1]Kimiro MEGURO and Hatem TAGEL-DIN: APPLIED ELEMENT METHOD FOR STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS: THEORY AND APPLICATION FOR LINEAR MATERIALS, Structural Eng./Earthquake Eng., JSCE, Vol. 17, No. 1, 21s-35s, 2000 April