Another El Nino Year to Plan!

Between 2001 and 2020, India saw seven El Nino years. Of these, four resulted in droughts (2003, 2005, 2009-10, 2015-16). These years also saw kharif or summer-sown farm output decline by 16%, 8%, 10% and 3%, stoking inflation. Kharif harvests account for nearly half of the country's annual food supply.

El Nino has a significant impact on Indian agriculture, which is heavily dependent on the monsoon season for irrigation and water supply. During El Nino years, the amount of rainfall over India is reduced, leading to droughts and water scarcity in many parts of the country. This has a direct impact on crop production, with many crops failing or experiencing reduced yields.?

India is a major producer and exporter of spices, with the spice industry playing an important role in the country's economy. However, the cultivation of spices in India can be affected by El Nino, which can lead to changes in weather patterns and rainfall.

During El Nino years, there is often a reduction in monsoon rainfall over India, which can lead to droughts and water scarcity in many parts of the country. This can have a direct impact on the cultivation of spices, which require adequate moisture levels for proper growth and development.

Some of the spices that are affected by El Nino in India include black pepper, cardamom, and turmeric. Black pepper is one of the most important spices produced in India, and is grown mainly in the southern states of Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. During El Nino years, black pepper production can be affected by water scarcity and high temperatures, leading to lower yields and poor quality of the pepper.

Overall, the impact of El Nino on the cultivation of spices in India can be significant, leading to lower yields, poor quality, and higher production costs for farmers. This can have a ripple effect throughout the economy, as the spice industry is an important sector in India, and many people rely on it for their livelihoods. The impacts of El Nino on spice production can also lead to higher prices and reduced availability of these important commodities. Everyone is predicting 2023 is another El Nino year, could end the run of good rainfall years since 2019. The statistical probability of that is high, whether or not there is an El Ni?o. Moreover, El Ni?o itself can turn out to be “weak”. Let us plan and make it positive season ahead!