On another COP-out: commemorating ineptness, subduing haplessness

‘Tis the perfect recipe to catch a cold, one mutters under their breath, wincing at a decently warm sun, weaving across air-conditioned halls… climate change is serious business, and the gathering here is supposed to mean business, and the long and the short of it, is infact, business… promulgating business with responsibility yet almost always ending up with business as usual… the UN Climate Conference, the climate COP, is akin to professional wrestling in so many ways, there’s intense drama, high flying manoeuvres, babyfaces and heels… one knows it’s all scripted, but goes along with it anyway.

COP28 began and ended with (supposedly) landmark decisions. The start of the conference saw parties agreeing to operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund building on its announcement at the end of COP27 last year. A long-standing demand from developing countries, developed nations have committed around US$ 800 million to the fund so far, with the World Bank to act as an interim trustee and host of the?fund for?a?four-year?period.?

Negotiations over the final agreement on the Global Stocktake stretched beyond the stipulated timeline, as is the fashionable norm with these conventions, with countries engaging in fierce discussions over the language to include ‘fossil fuel’. After over 20 hours of intense discussions, the ‘UAE Consensus’ became the first ever UN climate deal to mention ‘fossil fuels’ in its final language. While the agreement calls for a ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ as opposed to the demand of mentioning ‘phase out of fossil fuels’ by many countries, it was nevertheless broadcast as a watershed moment for the agreement which had failed to secure any language on fossil fuels thus far.

As the curtains are drawn over another edition of diplomatic theatrics, one looks back in exasperation at yet one more year gone by with no end to the trepidation.

Taking stock, then passing the buck

The Global Stocktake was one of defining outcomes of the 2015 Paris Agreement, a two-year process scheduled to be held every five years to assess progress made by countries on their climate commitments. The first stocktake began last year and concluded at COP28. Massive amounts of data collected and analyzed is perhaps the only positive to have come out of the process, as the results only corroborated what is rather obvious. We are nowhere near to achieving the target of limiting global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, let alone 1.5. Climate actions today are at best a mirage, and there isn’t any silver lining in sight.

Achieving 1.5 would require reduction in GHG emissions by 43, 60, and 84 percent from 2019 levels by 2030, 2035, and 2050 respectively, and there is no scientific evidence that shows we’re anywhere close to these targets. Changes to energy systems could help meet 74 percent of the global GHG mitigation requirements, but we’re loath to do that, and hence turn to wordplay, proclaiming ‘low per capita emissions’ and ‘emissions intensity reduction’ as our coup d'état, and occasionally, question the science to create temporary distractions. If ceasing use of oil and coal would send us back to the caves, as the COP28 President asserted, then so be it, for these fossil fuels are bound to fossilize us anyway. The next stocktake would now happen in 2028, and despite a well justified scepticism, one hopes for something more than lip service to the oil barons, for the dark gloomy canvasses of those post-apocalyptic movies seem frighteningly true at times these days.

Loss and damage fund: hurrah for our broken home

This was one of the headlines at COP28, announced in the opening phases of the conference to let the PR machinery mask the stasis of the core negotiations. US$ 700 million and counting… the big boys finally coming to the party, putting their money where the exhaust pipe is. Take a step back, and there’s your drop in the ocean.

US$ 100 billion annually was supposed to be needed every year by developing countries at the very least, we’d crawled up to around US$ 90 billion by 202. International adaptation finance flows to developing countries are 5-10 times lower than estimated needs and the gap is widening, for potential threats are already manifesting into extreme events. UNEP estimates annual adaptation needs to reach US$ 160-340 billion by 2030 and US$ 315-565 billion by 2050.

The final text on Global Goal on Adaptation at COP28 retained calls for a doubling in adaptation finance and plans for assessments and monitoring of adaptation needs in the coming years. Notably, specific 2030 deadlines have been incorporated into the text concerning targets related to water security, ecosystem restoration, and health. Nevertheless, the commitment to bridging the adaptation finance gap saw a weakened language. Much of the financing language was pushed from the adaptation section into the implementation section of the COP text.

700 million, then? Seems like running hundred metre sprints to train for a marathon.

Climate finance: that stale party joke

At Paris, we gave ourselves plenty of time, almost a decade, agreeing to set a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) from a floor of US$100 billion per year prior to 2025, considering the needs and priorities of developing countries.

We now wait to give ourselves even more time to arrive on a consensus, and once that is done, take some more time to fine tune a multi-layered, complicated framework that would put Finnegans Wake to shame. And then there’s the whole matter of operationalizing it. There’s hardly anything more poignantly adorable than a collective, collaborative state of torpor being passed off as frantic activity, which is where we’re at when it comes to climate finance. A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step, and we seem quite content on taking just that one step, for it’s a start, isn’t it?

Carbon markets: are we there yet?

This is like trying to start a car in the dead of Arctic winter. When Article 6 came out in Paris to govern international carbon credits, it seemed some reconciliation was in sight to do away with all that greenwashing. Eight years since, we’re still chiselling and chiding.

At COP28, the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) released a statement expressing disapproval over the politicization of carbon markets, calling out the European Union and other entities for attempting to shift policy discussions, including those related to the role of REDD+ in Article 6.4, to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA).?

So we’ll continue ‘piloting’, ‘testing new approaches’, advocating ‘voluntary’ efforts, with no clarity over whether or when international carbon credits transferred between governments will be recognized under the Paris Agreement.?

Just transition: for they are suffering, just not sure of what affliction

There is a clear recognition of the magnitude of socio-economic impacts of climate change that vulnerable populations face. That also though, is the calling card to continue using fossil fuels till we reach a point where we don’t need to use them, the curse of Sisyphus one would say.

There are myriad, often systemic inequalities – economic, gender, racial, social digital, health, education to name a few that afflict us today, all of which are being exacerbated by climate change. They intersect, interweave, and layer themselves such that people may experience many of them simultaneously.

The Sustainable Development Goals mirror this complexity, and perhaps provide the best template to prepare a holistic response. For now, it remains an agenda of the table that shows intent but when it comes to implementation, resources remain scarcer than ever.

Carbon sinks: no roads diverge into the woods

There was the Green Credits Initiative announced by India to boost voluntary environmental activities like tree plantation, water conservation, sustainable agriculture, and waste management by incentivizing it for individuals, organizations and businesses. But how? That’s a work in progress for all we know.

And then there’s that dangerous infatuation with greening spaces. We risk seeing ecosystems like deserts, grasslands and wetlands being turned into forests, carbon credits being peddled with little due diligence, and communities left high and dry. Trying to rise up to the challenge, we may sink even further.

Who gives a shit about nature?

Not many in this forum, one can safely surmise. It’s ironical, how nature is such a potent solution, and the best we can come up with is trying to shove carbon back into the ground as if it carbon capture and storage was the answer all this time.

The Global Biodiversity Framework found a mention, and so did the call to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030 in the Global Stocktake. Nothing about fauna though, fuelling the myopia of our distinct existence from other life forms. Nearly US$ 7 trillion is annually invested worldwide in activities directly harming nature, constituting about 7% of global GDP. In 2022, investments in nature-based solutions reached approximately US$ 200 billion, but grossly overshadowed by over 30-fold larger financial flows towards environmentally harmful activities.

Let’s talk, business

COPs are a barometer guiding businesses on positioning themselves over the climate agenda, and this narrative has continued to follow a positive trajectory for some time now. Investors and organizations are now fully cognizant of the enormous economic opportunity presented by efforts to tackle climate change, especially energy transition.

The hosts UAE announced ALTéRRA, a US$ 30 billion fund to catalyse private sector climate investments for Energy Transition, Industrial Decarbonisation, Sustainable Living and Climate Technologies. New capital commitments were announced to the Emerging Market Climate Action Fund (EMCAF), a blended finance instrument initiated by the European Investment Bank and AllianzGI.

A sliver of silver lining?

Laying off the cynicism aside for a while, there were some positive signs. There is language on fossil fuels now, and subsequent editions of the conference can expect fiercer debates on tightening it. Expansion of renewable energy capacities continues at a decent pace. Adaptation has a permanent seat at the table now. The first stocktake underscores the vital role of science in shaping future climate policies.

On the official rest day, I went on a little excursion to a flamingo sanctuary, a dried creek stranded between skyscrapers. A few hundred birds were milling about the water puddles, oblivious to the hubris of humanity unfolding a few miles away.

Most of the planet that does not carry the weight of climate change on its shoulders but may end up crumbling under it anyway. Yet it does not need our protection, for nature has a higher order that transcends our conscience (or lack thereof). All it needs is an honest acknowledgment of our follies, for repentance seems out of reach for now.