Annus Horribilus

2020 will certainly be remembered as an ‘Annus Horribilus’ for most of the globe, one way or another. For many of the people working in the oil patch I suspect it might be their last working in the industry because the inevitable cutbacks mean a lot of people will lose their jobs and almost certainly many companies will struggle to survive.

We are all aware of the oil industry being a cyclical one but, in the past, most people figured they would ride it out and pick up again where it left off. But the oil price crash a few years ago and now the SARS-CoV2 virus is a double whammy that has left a lot of people thinking, ‘Is it worth it?’

There are other factors as well. The globalisation process has brought to market many people who can or will work for far less than people living in high cost countries. One can argue about standards, professionalism and any other issue, real or perceived, but the one fact that wins every time is that money counts most of all and cheapness is best when it comes to employing someone for many companies.

Those who work in the global market are well aware of that fact and as an ex-British seafarer I am one of the group of people who were hit by that tidal wave of low cost labour that deluged the entire shipping industry back in the late 1980’s. Shipping was – and still is – a bit of a litmus test of that because as an industry it is hidden and no longer in the mind of the public at large. It is an industry where less savoury practices can be carried out in complete impunity and often that is most certainly the case.

To an extent one cannot blame privately owned companies. They must turn a profit and if their competitors are cutting running costs then they must as well. No, the blame firmly lies in the actions, laws and short termism of national governments who simply do not care. If the ongoing trade of cheaply manufactured disposable goods can continue then they are willing to turn a blind eye. And like seafarers being invisible, the manufacture of goods in some far-flung region of the world is also an invisible one to most of the purchasing public.

And let us not forget the public as well. We are all guilty of living in a disposable world where goods are so cheap, they are thrown away well before their usefulness has ended.

This trade has made a few people very wealthy indeed. It has made places in the world where labour costs are low, the go to places to make just about everything. And a few powerful people in those countries are staggeringly rich.

And nothing corrupts the soul of a person more than the triangle of wealth, fame and power. Few people once they experience it would ever be able to let it go and a quick glance through the more lurid tabloids is proof of that.

So, those who can make a difference keep turning a blind eye following the Adam Smith form of liberalised trade which has clearly many things to recommend it but comes with caveats that we have ignored too long.

Naturally Covid-19 is high on everyone’s mind but in many respects, this is a relatively small thing in the epochal timeline which, we will survive and, following a period of chaotic stock markets the world will return to normal. Humans always revert to the mean – and I’ve talked about that before – and this will almost certainly be the case.

This is both good and bad. Mostly good because it enables us to get over many difficult times both personally and globally with sanity intact for the majority. It is a self defence mechanism which is vital. However, it also means the very issues that can cause a problem are often ignored too once the pain has gone away. It’s like a recurring alcoholic. The get sober, swear off the drink and as soon as the misery goes away, the booze is back. It is very hard to break that cycle.

The biggest problem is that we have forgotten value. We have forgotten the value of the things we own, the material things. We have forgotten the value of people. Your family, your friends, the next-door neighbour and the poor benighted somewhere in the world living in squalor.

The environment suffers as well which, we are all aware or should be aware cannot be allowed to fail. I do believe that the ball is rolling on that one and human ingenuity will prevail.

Many people who work in the oil industry are facing a second blow almost before the last one has been ‘fixed,’ and I know of quite a few people who are seriously questioning their continued participation in this workplace even if they hang onto their jobs. My own son left the industry after the price crash because he felt that the little enjoyment left was not compensated by the wages which, had been slashed to such an extent it was no longer worth the effort and wrench of going away and leaving his family and now wife behind.

There must be people who are now thinking the same thing I am sure. My son has his own business which is doing okay and hopefully will grow – once the virus has abated. When I spoke to him about his choice over a couple of beers, I was struck by one thing.

He had his life vision worked out and it was a better one than the one I followed.

He was at the time just about covering his costs but, he had discovered something quite a few people will also discover over the next few months and maybe year or so. There is more than a flash motor in the drive. He works for himself that means he is his own boss. That does not mean he does not work hard. Quite the reverse. That work is however his own choice, and it directly makes a difference to him. It is, to use the overused modern term, ‘empowering.’ As he has also pointedly said to me that when he has children – and that I’m happy to report is a growing reality – he can take the time off when required to participate in all the things I did not.

 Ouch!

And when I look in the mirror, I see a bloke who has done his bit and tried hard, but I acknowledge the very real fact that he is entirely correct. As a father it is rather nice to understand your child has it worked out better than you do even if it is by not repeating your mistakes…

So, I’m betting this current crisis is making a few people think long and hard about what they want for their future and quite a number will in one way or another leave and not return to the life of an itinerant worker either on a ship or in the oil and gas industry.

This is especially possible given the age of many in the industry from the ‘old world’ where quite a number are in their fifties and considering the best way to make the best of the healthy years left. I’ve had shooting-the-shit talks with various blokes around their late 40’s and early 50’s and many have got one eye on spending more time at home. Some have simply woken up in the morning, looked in the mirror and had a sudden change of world view. That’s probably quite common I suspect.

From my time at sea and offshore I’ve only known two blokes ever have a planned retirement. All the others have usually reached a point where the scales of bullshit have judged the financial means on one side against the continued pain of continued day to day work and then bailed out. I know of one old Chief Engineer – well, I say old, he was probably just a bit older than me right now – who was doing a drydock and up to his arse in alligators. One morning the Superintendent dumped another load on him, and he simply packed his bag and went home. The look on the face of the Super was something that I’ll cherish. My only regret was at the time mobile phones were not a thing and certainly not ones with cameras to capture the stunned look on the face of the superintendent. My mate’s golf handicap was much improved, and he never regretted his decision once.

His wife did - but not him.

And naturally many of these people will be taking with them vast amounts of experience to be lost from industry. Of course, things will continue but the natural progression of changing of the old guard will be accelerated much faster than normal.

This global plague has many other effects and few if any are entirely immune from them.

Firstly, it should be obvious that social media has had a huge impact at every level and on every person. And most of it is bad.

The SARS-CoV2 virus is a blight but the hysteria generated by the ease of information transfer has probably caused huge distress to people, companies and countries far in excess of the reality.

The news media has generally behaved badly. In fact, very badly and in many ways worse than the social media platforms at generating distress and misinformation. This is possible because the various outlets have a mandate to generate numbers of click bait and TV time combined with an educated and clever workforce and run by people or corporations that have an agenda and the moral compass of a stoat. I doubt much of this is a surprise.

It is a human condition that we seek confirmation of our bias and naturally the media are incredibly happy to accommodate that want. It will depend upon your political bias, your tendency to focus on conspiracy theories, your religious beliefs or your level of cynicism.

What I can see is a deluge of truths, partial truths, lies by omission and outright nonsense being peddled by the various media outlets even the so-called better-quality ones. Naturally, they want viewers and readers. This leads to click-baiting in order to generate numbers - and numbers mean advertising revenue or the ability to shape the argument in the direction somebody wants.

They all do it, even the so-called neutral broadcasters such as the BBC which, might be better than some but is just more devious in the way it presents what it wants to present. It is a damn sight easier dodging the truck heading your way if you see it than the one that comes out the side of a hidden junction. The better or rather cleverer news outlets know this and even the most cynical after a while can find themselves watching or reading something and finding themselves agreeing even if the reality is utterly different.

And whilst it’s obviously not the exactly the same, the Nazi’s in Germany during the 1930’s – especially Goebbels the head of the propaganda unit – understood the power of the media. The National Socialists made it their mission to ensure that a radio was in every household in Germany. They started off softly-softly, but as time and the snake like whisperings had their effect, the message became more and more strident with the consequences that we all know about and which shaped the world and still does.

This is the power of media. It can be a force for good and equally a force for bad. Today the media send mixed messages based upon where the parent company stands in the political landscape, the amount of revenue it wants to generate and the inevitable inherent honesty of the writers and journalists working within it. Some are dedicated and honest individuals, but I suspect most are simply after a bit if limelight and fame combining a willingness to sell their children if it meant a few more readers or TV viewers with a wilful disregard to open and honest reporting. 

 In the UK we had three years of media hyperventilating over Brexit. It was mana from heaven for the newspapers, Facebook warriors and TV outlets. When it was resolved post last election, they must have shed a collective tear in news editors’ offices across the land, because much of the massive output was around maintaining the fucked-up status quo.

Then came Covid-19. Hell, and damnation for the world’s economies, death to thousands and a bonus boom time for the various news people. They must have collectively prayed to whichever particular God they believed in – if one could have a soul being a reporter – for thanks. More easy news and massive amounts of click-bait. I would imagine quite a few gathered around their blood soaked pentagrams on a full Moon and gave a cheery wave to the sacrifice on the altar.

And the one thing that this Covid-19 outbreak has done is make us all amateur statisticians. I’m not immune to that and of course have posted plenty of bollocks to prove my point. Which, of course it does not because those who hold the opposite view won’t be persuaded by my pontifications no matter how half baked…

Then about a week ago I started to think that I needed to think a bit too. We are all part of the problem in some ways, spreading the misinformation based upon our own prejudices which, we all have. I doubt that many people could honestly say they don’t hold views on some subjects that would not hold up to close reasonable scrutiny if challenged. The cleverer ones hold their tongues whilst the more IQ negative blurt stuff out thus proving the old adage that its better to stay quiet and let people think you are stupid than open your mouth and prove it. It’s taken me fifty-two years to realise that I only partially manage to stick to it…

Anyway, because I was sick of reading the filtered stats punted out by the various TV news programs and the newspapers, I went instead to the Office of National Statistics which is a UK government department. The UK has many failings as do all countries, but it is exceptionally good at organising and recording statistics which, they have been doing for a thousand years in some detail. And the ONS is reliable because it puts out the raw data in Excel format which, anyone can download and use.

Of course, the other truism holds fast. ‘Lies, damned lies and statistics.’ Even I as a complete nonce can work that out and given the deluge of data it is fairly easy to pick out the bits that support one’s argument which, of course the media does.

But here are my observations on the various charts and numbers chucked about based upon the crap the TV, internet and newspapers punt out.

There are only two facts – in the UK – that are real. The total number of deaths and the legally registered population. The second number – population – will inevitably be higher than the stated amount but for the sake of calculation stick to the accepted true number. What I found is that about 90K more people died year to date in 2020 than in 2015. Looks dramatic but then the other thing has to be included which is the increase in UK population which is 3 million over the same period. When you look at the deaths per population year to date the actual amount is the same. In fact, exactly the same. In between the ratio has reduced a bit but overall the ratio is quite stable regardless of various outside influences. For instance, the 2014-15 winter saw an additional 44,000 deaths across the UK due to flu. And yes, I know Covid-19 is not the same but the numbers still hold statistical value.

Does this mean Covid-19 has not caused deaths? Of course not, because it has. Mostly, though it has accelerated deaths among the most seriously ill. There are some apparently fit and healthy deaths so it’s not a given that just being young and in the prime of health you are immune but by and large that is the case.

Mostly though what the media has done is use these numbers to incredible effect playing on the minds of those who see a raw number – which is most people – and of course the fears that death brings with it. Being able to show a graph with a massive spike of people who have carked it inevitably gets a reaction and these graphs are shared instantly across the internet with suitable panic inducing effects.

And that is the other thing I’ve noticed which is the way in which a graph is used to change the mood of the audience. I am sure that many people versed in political science and real science know this but once you start to look at the hard data you start to feel somewhat cheated. The classic cheat I’ve noticed media do is to concentrate on the simple death statistic per nation and graph that out. What is often done is to show ‘Country X’ recorded deaths against ‘Country Y’ recorded deaths. This is used to show how one country is dramatically failing against another one or how well one is doing. What you do not see of course is the population which often changes things.

Other factors naturally make comparisons almost impossible. Ethic living for instance. Some countries have multigenerational living which, is often cited as a wonderful example of how to treat the older people in society. Which, it is. Unfortunately, it is quite the reverse in a pandemic.

Population density, healthcare service, type of government and of course how a death is recorded. In the UK if you fell off a roof 30m to your death and had covid-19 even if asymptomatic there is a better than even chance this would be a death recorded against the virus.. In Germany it seems as if they look at the underlying cause of death and make a reasoned call. That naturally drives down the numbers associated with Covid-19 which, might be more truthful or maybe it hides the fact? Who knows?

What I do genuinely think is that the public have been surprisingly easy to manipulate into various camps based upon distortion of the facts by omission for the most part. This terrible virus has exposed several failings but there are a couple that need to be looked at more carefully.

Firstly, the public need to be made to think for themselves in a clearer way with the actual data not filtered through the distorted lens of government or media. This education should be started at school because the modern world is one in which big data has become king. Internet companies thrive on it to sell you shit you don’t need whilst the media sell you stuff to turn your brain into mush. The people need to be able to delve into the outpouring of effluent and find the nuggets of truth whilst disregarding the rank bilge that makes up the mass of information. And an educated and cynical public will help force the news media into becoming more truthful which, would be a very good thing.

Secondly, the news media needs to be tackled. One certainly should not instigate censorship because there lie dictatorships. No, news outlets should, like food packaging have to place some form of warning on their output so that it’s immediately obvious to those who are less cynical in which way the truck full of shit is coming. I suggest a traffic light system where any article should have ‘Fully truthful,’ ‘Partially truthful,’ ‘Speculation,’ ‘Untrue by omission.’

It would be a fine thing indeed to have a TV presenter try and read out a report with a red warning sign displayed above their head stating, ‘Bullshit.’ 

So, this virus has been a blight but maybe when it’s gone people will remember that some things need more care and attention than others. Your family, your friends and the truth.