Analyzing Cascading Indicators using QUBO

At the core of climate change and biodiversity loss lies human overconsumption, a phenomenon accelerated by the Industrial Revolution. Climate change, while impactful, is just one of 30 interrelated indicators of overconsumption identified in this study, all contributing to the crisis of biodiversity loss. Addressing this issue requires more than a binary approach like "stopping carbon emissions," as the interactions among these indicators amplify their collective impact, making the problem both urgent and multifaceted.

Quantum computing, through Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) graphs, offers a powerful framework for modeling these complex interdependencies. By mapping relationships, prioritizing impacts, and identifying optimal mitigation strategies, QUBO-based solutions can guide resource allocation effectively, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to tackle biodiversity loss holistically.

Expected Sustainability Impact

Our approach seeks to stabilize global resource use to prevent cascading indicator risks due to overconsumption. By rebalancing resource allocation, fostering sustainable behaviors, and promoting equity, we aim to reduce pressure on critical systems and avoid simultaneous crises.

30 Key Indicators (baseline starter graph):

1. Global Pandemics (2025)
2. Famine (2030)
3. Earthquakes (2040)
4. Fires & Heatwaves (2030)
5. Environmental Stalling (Collapse) (2040)
6. Ocean Acidification (2040)
7. Collapse of Marine Life (2050)
8. Freshwater Contamination (2040)
9. Plastic Pollution (2040)
10. Deforestation & Land Devastation (2030)
11. Resource Depletion (2050)
12. Soil Degradation & Desertification (2035)
13. Overpopulation Leading to Chaos (2030)
14. Economic Collapse (2040)
15. Biodiversity Collapse (2040)
16. Water Scarcity (2040)
17. Hailstorms & Extreme Weather (2035)
18. Permafrost Thawing (2035)
19. Collapse of Ocean Currents (2050)
20. Kessler Syndrome (2050)
21. Race for AI Dominance (2040)
22. Catastrophic Human & Environmental Impact (2040)
23. Wars and Conflicts (2035)
24. Large-Scale Volcanic Eruption (Unpredictable)
25. Human-AI Integration Disparity (2035)
26. Earth’s Wobble (2029)
27. Wind Cessation (2050)
28. Sea Level Rise (2050)
29. Climate-Induced Global Migration (2030)
30. Intensification of Hurricanes & Storms (2040)

This segments into three distinct time periods: the Era of Escalation (2025–2035), the Era of Intensification (2035–2040), and the Era of Collapse (2040–2050). These eras should, of course, adjust as we run the simulation.

Keep in mind, this is just a theoretical study as part of the PASQAL Quantum compute hackathon.

1. Era of Escalation (2025–2035)

This period marks the initial phase of accelerating crises. Climate change, resource strain, and societal pressures grow more evident, transitioning localized challenges into global disruptions.

Key Events:

• Global Pandemics (2025)
• Famine (2030)
• Fires & Heatwaves (2030)
• Deforestation & Land Devastation (2030)
• Climate-Induced Global Migration (2030)
• Overpopulation Leading to Chaos (2030)
• Hailstorms & Extreme Weather (2035)
• Soil Degradation & Desertification (2035)
• Permafrost Thawing (2035)
• Human-AI Integration Disparity (2035)
• Wars and Conflicts (2035)

Characteristics:

• Increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
• Early signs of societal strain from migration, food insecurity, and overpopulation.
• Human-driven disruptions (e.g., AI tensions) begin affecting global stability.

2. Era of Intensification (2035–2040)

Crises deepen during this transitional period, with escalating environmental, societal, and technological challenges. Systems begin to approach breaking points.

Key Events:

• Hailstorms & Extreme Weather (2035)
• Permafrost Thawing (2035)
• Human-AI Integration Disparity (2035)
• Wars and Conflicts (2035)
• Earthquakes (2040)
• Environmental Stalling (Collapse) (2040)
• Ocean Acidification (2040)
• Freshwater Contamination (2040)
• Plastic Pollution (2040)
• Economic Collapse (2040)
• Biodiversity Collapse (2040)
• Intensification of Hurricanes & Storms (2040)
• Catastrophic Human & Environmental Impact (2040)

Characteristics:

• Environmental systems approach tipping points (e.g., permafrost thaw and ocean acidification).
• Economic and biodiversity collapses begin to manifest.
• Extreme weather, natural disasters, and resource-driven conflicts escalate.
• Human-AI tensions and governance challenges amplify societal disruptions.

3. Era of Collapse (2040–2050)

This period sees the breakdown of critical systems, with cascading impacts across ecosystems, economies, and societies. The effects of earlier crises become irreversible in many cases.

Key Events:

• Earthquakes (2040)
• Environmental Stalling (Collapse) (2040)
• Ocean Acidification (2040)
• Freshwater Contamination (2040)
• Plastic Pollution (2040)
• Economic Collapse (2040)
• Biodiversity Collapse (2040)
• Intensification of Hurricanes & Storms (2040)
• Collapse of Marine Life (2050)
• Resource Depletion (2050)
• Collapse of Ocean Currents (2050)
• Kessler Syndrome (2050)
• Wind Cessation (2050)
• Sea Level Rise (2050)

Characteristics:

• Major ecological systems fail, leading to food shortages and mass extinctions.
• Resource depletion sparks geopolitical conflicts.
• Technological and societal disruptions compound the challenges of global instability.
• Environmental feedback loops create long-term, irreversible impacts on the planet.

Summary:

• Era of Escalation (2025–2035): Warnings emerge, and crises accelerate.
• Era of Intensification (2035–2040): Systems near tipping points, and global instability rises sharply.
• Era of Collapse (2040–2050): Critical systems break down, causing widespread and irreversible consequences.

AI Contribution

AI plays a critical role in our solution by establishing baseline resource consumption metrics, analyzing cascading risks, and optimizing mitigation strategies to prevent global crises. Using advanced techniques such as machine learning, genetic algorithms, neural networks, and reinforcement learning, AI processes complex, interdependent data from 30 overconsumption indicators.

AI is integrated through predictive modeling, which forecasts future resource usage and biodiversity trends; optimization algorithms, which identify the most effective interventions to stabilize critical systems; and decision-support tools, which guide policymakers by prioritizing actions with the greatest impact.

AI is essential because the problem involves multi-dimensional, interdependent systems that require rapid and precise analysis beyond human capacity. By leveraging AI, we can effectively simulate scenarios, allocate resources, and implement solutions that minimize cascading effects.

Quantum Computing Integration

The solution is implemented using Pasqal's neutral atom quantum processors, which excel in solving optimization problems like QUBO by taking advantage of their highly parallel, scalable quantum capabilities.

Why Quantum Computing:

Quantum computing, specifically Pasqal's neutral atom technology, is essential due to the exponential complexity of the interconnected problem. The cascading dependencies create a non-linear optimization landscape, which is challenging for classical solvers. Pasqal's technology efficiently explores solution spaces, leveraging quantum parallelism to achieve faster convergence.

Key Contributions:

Efficiency: Accelerates solving complex optimization problems.

Scalability: Easily adapts to additional constraints or areas.

Feasibility: Solves problems classical methods struggle with efficiently.

By leveraging quantum computing, the solution is both computationally efficient and capable of scaling to larger, more complex sustainability challenges.

Mathematics

Step 1: Define the Variables

Step 2: Define the Objective Function

Incorporate Overconsumption Factor:

Balance Resource Allocation:

Step 3: Combine Into a QUBO Objective

The complete QUBO objective is:

• First Term: Reduces cascading risk.
• Second Term: Accounts for interconnections between areas.
• Third Term: Penalizes overconsumption in non-mitigated areas.
• Fourth Term: Enforces resource constraints.

Step 4: Construct the QUBO Matrix

Step 5: Solve Using Quantum Compute

Summary

Human overconsumption drives biodiversity loss through 30 interconnected indicators. Quantum computing and AI model these complexities, optimize resource use, and prioritize interventions, aiming to stabilize systems and mitigate cascading risks.

Appendix

This is the second iteration of the Cascading Indicators for the PASQAL Quantum Challenge. Keep in mind that we are building a theoretical framework for a QUBO quantum calculation. While all of this is speculative, it allows for the construction of the quantum framework.

Projected Timeline for Cascading Events

1. Global Pandemics: Ongoing (e.g., COVID-19), increasingly disruptive by 2025 due to urbanization and habitat destruction.
2. Famine: Noticeable and widespread in regions by 2030, as food insecurity rises from soil degradation and water scarcity.
3. Earthquakes: Already disruptive in certain regions, but increased human-induced seismicity becomes globally alarming by 2040.
4. Fires and Heatwaves: Increasingly severe and frequent, globally disruptive by 2030 as temperatures and wildfires escalate.
5. Environmental Collapse: Noticeable in ecosystems globally by 2040, driven by pollution and biodiversity loss.
6. Ocean Acidification: Disrupting marine ecosystems significantly by 2040, with coral reef collapses noticeable by 2035.
7. Collapse of Marine Life: Globally significant and disruptive to fisheries and food supplies by 2050.
8. Freshwater Contamination: Recognizable in critical regions like South Asia and Africa by 2030, escalating globally by 2040.
9. Plastic Pollution: Noticeable in marine and terrestrial ecosystems now, but globally critical by 2040.
10. Deforestation and Land Devastation: Recognizable and disruptive by 2030, with increasing loss of biodiversity hotspots.
11. Resource Depletion: Noticeable by 2030 (e.g., peak oil), critical shortages expected globally by 2050.
12. Soil Degradation and Desertification: Recognizable and disruptive to food supplies by 2035.
13. Overpopulation Leading to Chaos: Noticeable societal strains globally by 2030, worsening through 2050.
14. Economic Collapse: Driven by cascading factors, noticeable by 2040, with key regional collapses by 2035.
15. Biodiversity Collapse (Sixth Mass Extinction): Disruption noticeable in key ecosystems by 2040, accelerating after 2050.
16. Water Scarcity: Recognizable and disruptive in critical regions (e.g., Middle East) by 2030, globally by 2040.
17. Hailstorms and Extreme Weather: Disruptive and noticeable globally by 2035, with increasing frequency and severity.
18. Permafrost Thawing: Noticeable methane release and global warming feedback loops by 2035, disruptive by 2050.
19. Collapse of Ocean Currents: Recognizable disruptions by 2050, with severe consequences noticeable by 2070.
20. Kessler Syndrome: Potentially noticeable by 2050 as space debris accumulation reaches critical levels.
21. Race for AI Dominance: Noticeable societal and geopolitical tensions by 2030, disruptive by 2040.
22. Catastrophic Human and Environmental Impact: Noticeable globally as cascading effects intensify by 2040.
23. Wars and Conflicts: Resource-driven conflicts noticeable and disruptive by 2035, increasing by 2050.
24. Large-Scale Volcanic Eruption: Not predictable, but with potential disruption anytime within this century.
25. Human-AI Integration Disparity (Iron-Clay Paradox): Noticeable societal impacts by 2035, escalating by 2050.
26. Earth’s Wobble (Polar Motion): Noticeable impacts to navigation and technology by 2029, disruptive by 2050.
27. Wind Cessation (Atmospheric Stagnation): Noticeable regional stagnation events by 2050, globally critical by 2070.
28. Sea Level Rise: Noticeable flooding and displacement by 2035, disruptive globally by 2050.
29. Climate-Induced Global Migration: Noticeable in critical regions by 2030, escalating globally by 2050.
30. Intensification of Hurricanes and Extreme Storms: Noticeable increases in strength and frequency by 2030, globally disruptive by 2040.