The Analytical Abyss

Twice during the Packers- Cowboys game Fox announcer Kevin Burkhardt used the word million to describe how many statistical categories the Cowboys were near the top of in the NFL. While the veteran voice may have been exaggerating, it may not have been by much.

?Every stat geek and Vegas bookie gave the Green Bay Packers absolutely no chance to win last Sunday in Dallas. Finding an analyst, broadcaster or beat writer that thought Green Bay would win was like finding an optimistic Bear fan. Doom and gloom awaited the NFL’s youngest team.

?From the coin flip, Jordan Love and the Packers shredded those statistical spreadsheets just like they did the Cowboys defense. The million statistical advantages Burkhardt described disappeared along with the Cowboys #1 ranked offense. Another paper victory went up in flames as the Packers torched the boys in blue, 48-32.

?If you dare to jump into that black hole that is NFL statistics and analytics you will encounter a mind-numbing list of categories attached to an endless string of acronyms and calculated by formulas that I thought were reserved for bringing rockets back from space. There isn’t much that goes on during a game that isn’t being tracked, compiled, calculated and over analyzed.

?All of this is done in a desperate attempt to predict the unpredictable.

?As the analysts and statisticians dissect game video as if it were security camera footage from January 6th, they will always come up short of finding that one factor they cannot measure.? The one variable that can render all their work meaningless, the one that can turn certain victory into defeat—the athlete’s heart and soul.

?When it comes to predicting the heart and mindset of a team and each of its individual parts there is no objective data to crunch and no physiological tests or psychological algorithms to accurately predict an athlete’s performance. We are well aware of the heart’s physical role, but its psychological impact is a matter of faith.

?Because we are all wired so wonderfully different, predicting how players will react to pressure or overconfidence is reduced to the success rate of fortune tellers. And of course, there is that magnificently powerful underdog affect! There is just something so inspiring about being told you can’t win. Even if coaches are able to muzzle their players from providing bulletin board material, the media is all too willing to throw gasoline on that innocent flame.

?The laser-like line that separates confidence from overconfidence is often difficult to discern even for the most experienced coaches. It is our innate urge to judge and to want to be right. The new world of analytics provides us with a smorgasbord of tasty numbers and percentages to feed our confidence appetite. At the high school level, it doesn’t take more than a list of game scores to convince players all they need to do is show up.

?It is highly unlikely the 49ers will overlook the Packers after watching the Dallas debacle. However, overconfidence doesn’t just affect the pre-game outlook. Quickly falling behind often trips the pressure switch that was under control before the game started.? I recall playing a winless team late in the season and falling behind after the first period. My assistant coach unloaded between periods about how embarrassing it was and we squeezed our sticks even harder and lost by a goal.?

Most of these paper mismatches go as expected, but when they don’t, it can be catastrophic. In the frying pan of college and professional sports it leads to worldly knee-jerk reactions. Most recently It unfairly ended the great tenure of Badger football coach Paul Chryst. Invariably when time allows us to look back calmly, it is obviously and often painfully viewed as a poor decision.

Jerry Jones, with his remarkably elastic knees for a man in his eighties, has suppressed the knee-jerk and wisely decided to hang on to Mike McCarthy, one of only seven active coaches to win a Super Bowl.?

?I love statistics and analyzing film. I think during the season I spent more time breaking down film on Hudl than I did sleeping. It is a comfortable and inviting rabbit hole for many coaches to escape into. If you dig deep enough, you can find statistics to support just about anything you desire.

?The analytical abyss can give you a comprehensive look into any team, but it won’t give you a look into the minds of those whose attitudes, efforts and decisions will determine the outcome of the game. When the talent levels are similar as they are in the NFL, every statistical advantage or disadvantage is susceptible to the limitless power of the heart and mind.

That combination will forever remain the unsolved mystery of sports.? Underestimate me, tell me I can’t do it, then sit back and watch your promising numbers disappear.

With the speed of lightning and the roar of thunder, there is no need to fear, Underdog is here!