Analysis of risks in #Europe & #world Prof. Arch. GEORGE ONSY (EGYPT)

ARTICLE by Prof. Arch. George Onsy (EGYPT)

#Society #Europe #Ukraine #War #Analysis

#HISTORY & #REALITY -- How Does #History Repeat Itself?

An RRM3’s Historical-political-Economical-Social Analysis of Our Today World Realities - 1

A Study on WW I

* Lasted 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days.

* 15 million people died

* 135 countries were involved

What were its causes and whose responsibility?

Give your comment to find the COMMON Causes and responsibilities between the PAST (WW I) and the PRESENT (RUSSIAN USA-NATO War), as well as any World War to come:

- War is GENERATED BY GREAT POWER POLITICS

- MUTUAL DISTRUST between main parties.

- ARMAMENT RACE/RIVALRY OF THE GREAT POWERS

- DIFFICULTIES OF THE MULTI-NATIONAL REGIONS & the STRIVE FOR AUTONOMY - THE IDEA OF A NATIONAL STATE

- LOSING THE DEFENSIVE CHARACTER of the EUROPEAN ALLIANCES

- The BALKAN POLICY between RUSSIA and the other parties. Fearing another FAILURE OF DOMINANCE OVER THE BALKAN POLICY

- HASTY MOBILIZATION AND ULTIMATUMS

- Some Countries’ REVENGE POLICY

- Some Countries’ NATIONALISM and PAN-NATIONAL AMBITION – the Concept of SUPRA-NATIONAL EMPIRE

- GAINING PRESTIGE, standing by some states' alliance

- The NEED for a quick SUBJUGATION OF A RIVAL GREAT POWER

WAVERING BETWEEN NEUTRALITY AND PARTISANSHIP CABINETS’ - INDECISIVENESS, FEAR from Russia’s possible Expansion Policy

- FEARING FROM POLITICAL ISOLATION

- FAILING TO EXERT ANY MODERATING INFLUENCE ON either side of the ALLIANCE PARTNERS

- Inter-state TRADE RIVALRY

Now, let’s display in more depth the Cause and Responsibilities in the Case of WW I! Notice that the common Causes, Factors, and Responsibilities are in Capital Letters as shown above:

Causes of #World #War I

1- Conflicts were GENERATED BY POWER POLITICS within the European State System (Germany/Britain, Germany/France)

2- ARMAMENT RACE OF THE GREAT POWERS (German and France army budgets of 1913, pp. 105, 110); Anglo-German naval rivalry (Franco-Britain naval agreement of 1912)

3- DIFFICULTIES OF THE MULTI-NATIONAL REGIONS, Austro-Hungarian state (STRIVING FOR AUTONOMY by the Czechs, the Slavic problem);

4- The European ALLIANCES LOST THEIR DEFENSIVE CHARACTER;

5- Russia’s BALKAN POLICY (p 121);

6- HASTY MOBILIZATION AND ULTIMATUMS (caused by preconceived plans of military operations).

And of less importance were:

7- France’s (REVENGE POLICY) and German nationalism (THE PAN-NATIONAL AMBITION, in WWI, was the Pan-German League) and Anglo-German TRADE RIVALRY.

The Question of Responsibility:

World War I was unleashed because of MUTUAL DISTRUST:

Because of THE BELIEF that a limited EUROPEAN WAR COULD NOT BE AVOIDED (a belief especially fateful on the German side)

Because of the LIMITED FREEDOM OF THE DECISION on the part of the leading statesmen

Because of the peoples’ WILLINGNESS TO ARM TO ENSURE THEIR SECURITY

Moreover, NON OF THE STATES WAS WILLING TO ABANDON ITS AIMS TO PRESERVE THE PEACE:

1- AUSTRIA-HUNGARY held on the conception of a SUPRA-NATIONAL EMPIRE

2- SERBIA sought to realize THE IDEA OF A NATIONAL STATE

3- RUSSIA feared another FAILURE OF DOMINANCE OVER THE BALKAN POLICY and faced the alternative of war abroad or revolution at home

4- BRITAIN, WAVERED BETWEEN NEUTRALITY AND PARTISANSHIP (CABINET’S INDECISIVENESS, FEAR of Russian policy of offense)

5- FRANCE, DELIVERED FROM POLITICAL ISOLATION BY ITS ALLIANCE with Russia, saw this alliance as a means of bringing pressure to bear on Germany.

6- GERMANY, to ESCAPE FROM INCREASING POLITICAL ISOLATION and to help the domestically and internationally troubled Danuban monarchy to GAIN PRESTIGE, stood by its alliance with Austro-Hungary. The German General staff urged the initiation of the war in 1914 since otherwise, THE PRECONDITIONS FOR A QUICK SUBJUGATION of France would no longer be present (Schlieffen Plan p. 125)

7- FRANCE & GERMANY FAILED TO EXERT any MODERATING INFLUENCE ON THEIR ALLIANCE PARTNERS, Russia and Austria-Hungary

The War outbreak was caused by the July Crisis of 1914

28 June: Assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne, Archduke Francis Ferdinand (b. 1863), and his wife in Sarajevo by the Bosnian student Princip, who was under orders from the secret ‘Black Hand’ organization (no direct involvement by the Serbian Government.

Study & Analysis by

George Onsy-Egypt

Founder-President RRM3

With all our RRM3 500 Members' wishes for Real Peace.

Reference: Atlas of World History -

Google WWI Timelines, you can search there and provide us with more inputs:

https://images.search.yahoo.com/.../images;_ylt...