Analysis of Presidential Election Petition Tribunal Prediction

The Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT) will rule on petitions filed by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) challenging Bola Tinubu's victory in the 2023 presidential election, tomorrow, September 6, 2023.

The petitions have sparked intense debate, with some analysts predicting that the PEPT will rule in favor of the petitioners, while others believe that Tinubu will be declared the winner. It is premature to make predictions about the PEPT's decision, as it is ultimately up to the tribunal to evaluate the evidence and make a fair decision.

For example, in a similar case in 2019, the PEPT ruled against the petitioners challenging President Muhammadu Buhari's victory, stating that they failed to provide sufficient evidence of irregularities. This precedent suggests that the PEPT may prioritize concrete evidence over mere speculation or allegations in their decision-making process. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether the petitions against Tinubu will be successful or if he will be declared the rightful winner of the election.

In this article, I will examine the petitions and offer my personal assessment of what the PEPT will likely decide. It is clear that the petitioners have the burden of proving that Tinubu was the victim of electoral fraud, based on the precedent that the PEPT established in the Buhari case. It is doubtful that the PEPT will rule in favor of the petitions against Tinubu without solid evidence, which could lead to his being declared the legitimate election winner. It is important to remember that this is only a prediction and that the PEPT will make the ultimate call.

The Petitions

• Atiku's petition is based on several charges, including massive anomalies, voter suppression, and electoral fraud. He also argues that Tinubu is ineligible to run for office because of his perjury conviction in 1993.
• Obi's petition is also based on allegations of irregularities, but he does not challenge Tinubu's eligibility to stand for election. He also asks the PEPT to declare him the winner of the election, rather than ordering a rerun.
• The APM's petition is the most narrow, and it simply asks the PEPT to declare that Tinubu did not win the majority of the votes cast in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

The Analysis

• The strongest of the three petitions is the one from Atiku. His claims of irregularities are backed up by a significant amount of documentation, and he has also brought forth witnesses to testify.
• It is important to remember that Atiku must prove that the anomalies had a material impact on the election's outcome. This is a high standard, and it is uncertain whether he can meet it.
• Obi's petition has a lower chance of success. He lacks Atiku's level of proof, and it is unlikely that he would succeed in having the election declared for him.
• The APM's petition is the least likely to succeed. It is based on a very narrow set of grounds, and it is unlikely that the PEPT will find in its favor.

The Prediction

My evaluation of the petitions leads me to believe that Tinubu will likely win the PEPT's decision. I believe that Atiku's evidence is insufficient to show that the anomalies had an impact on the election's outcome, and I also think that Obi's and the APM's petitions are too weak to be successful.

I am willing to admit that I may be wrong. I respect the PEPT's decision, no matter what it may be, as it was made by an impartial and fair body. I believe that the PEPT will carefully analyze all of the evidence presented before making their decision. If Tinubu does win, it will be a significant victory for him and his supporters. However, if the PEPT rules in favor of Atiku or any other petitioner, it will be a blow to Tinubu's political career. Regardless of the outcome, I trust in the integrity of the PEPT and their commitment to upholding justice.

Conclusion

The PEPT's impending ruling will have a significant impact on Nigeria's democracy. The verdict in the case would significantly alter the political climate of the nation and signal to the world that Nigeria is committed to holding free and fair elections.