An Analysis of Indian Economy post DeMo & GST? The Challenges & Recommendations?

CHAPTER 8

An Analysis of Indian Economy post DeMo & GST? The Challenges & Recommendations Published on (September 24, 2017)

1. Aim: The main objective of this chapter is to provide the readers a glimpse of the “Stress analysis of Indian Economy” as on date as some World Renowned Economists, Corporate Gurus & Financial Experts in India & abroad and also quite a few opposition leaders who considers themselves among the most responsible intellectuals in this field as subject matter experts par excellence with quite a few industry leaders, consultants in Big 4 & some financial specialists from the corporate those are strongly advocating on TV debates as well by way of contributing articles to the newspapers that Indian Economy has hit an all-time low due to the 144 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? implementation of Demonetization(De Mo) in an inefficient way & mainly in haste and then by putting the most awaited GST regime in place without carrying out adequate preparations in advance and also making it into a four slabs structure, a bit complicated in terms of filing returns. I feel that even a common man of the country now understand that if De Mo was not implemented at this most opportune time, the Economy of the country would have collapsed completely within a time period of maximum 02 years, hence, these remarks painting a negativity of the result oriented Economic reforms are certainly unwarranted. The country is moving towards an Institutionalised Ethics Based Framework involving transparency & accountability and moving away from the old practices of corruption. The analysis below:- 2. An Analysis: First of all let me make it clear that there is NO STRESS and the Indian economy is still the fastest growing among the emerging economies in the world as on date. On the onset if you look at numbers i.e. the percentage of India Economy Growth in last 03 quarters as available in the media & at GoI / RBI websites and also given in my Blogs at LinkedIn just a few days back, let me submit that though it certainly looks under decline by the numbers but it is undergoing a “Consolidation Phase” & riding on a “Stability Ladder” after a An Analysis of Indian Economy... 145 chaotic progression for a long that took place in the time when “Shadow or Black Economy” grew in equal size to the Indian Economy between 2004 & 2014. The growth % or the numbers were highest between the period from 2004-2009 or rather till 2011 but they were not the authentic or the real ones as Job Creation between 2004-2009 was merely 2.7 million and inflation was rocketing towards double-digit many times consistently. The inflation was higher than GDP growth from 2007 to 2013, hence, it had no contribution rather a trap created artificially to cover up institutionalised big scams those took place in high volumes during the period. The Indian Economy was worst hit during this period. It was a result of “Policy Crisis or Policy Paralysis” or I should call it an “Absolute Policy Failure” as the GoI policy formation took place during the time in a way to support the big-time corruption in a systematic way from the Top to Bottom, so to make it to look like that everything is happening for the good of the country & its people, but reverse was the aim. The policies were deliberately crafted for a select few in the Governments & Public, politicians, Industrialists and the Businesses & Corporate of preference. Even the office of CAG was influenced I suppose. The GoI money or the taxpayers’ money on the name of new developmental projects had flown into the 146 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? pocket of such select few in a big way in colossal amounts and the Inequality that exists today is a result of the same as the poor, farmers and middle income groups were neglected pathetically. The counterfeit notes flowing from across borders along with currency having duplicate numbers in high denomination notes as printed in excess and infused into the systems was a matter of serious most concern to the national security as well as to the financial systems of the country. But no one was bothered but focused on the loot. So, an artificial boom so created in the form of Shadow Economy that became instrumental in pushing the skyrocketing or inflated rates in Real Estate & a huge Cash Ballooning took place in daily transactions, hence, use of black money became the order of the day in every single deal in each sphere of life whether it was getting the child’s admission in a school or in an engineering or in a medical college or getting a job or getting the entitled government services or getting a Driving license or managing a reduced electricity bill or selling counterfeit or duplicates products or the adulterated foodstuff or hooch or country made toxic liquor, drugs sale in many parts of the country everything was fixed with black money. The corruption was a favourite pursuit at each level, and at each department, before the present, An Analysis of Indian Economy... 147 GoI was formed under Shri Narendra Modi. The big-time scams were taking place at topmost level frequently and the rampant corruption was prevalent and on the rise year by year at each level. The Public Sector Banks were drained ( by this Day Light Robbery or Big Bank Robbery by a Syndicate in connivance of such people as mentioned above and it resulted in the form of NPAs. The board members of the companies that are facing NPAs along with independent & other directors on board PSUs or PSBs and MNCs, politicians, Chairman’s & MDs of PSBs, CFOs, Chartered Accountants, Law Firms, Company Secretaries & the Consultants, all were having hand in getting such huge loans sanctioned repeatedly without creditworthiness & carrying out any forensic audit as they were causing frauds on taxpayers money or on national wealth knowingly with a purpose to siphon it to the safe heavens to enjoy it later. The mindset towards corruption was considered to be a proud privilege as to become affluent & considered to be a smart operator and it was flaunted also shamelessly by such gangs of corrupts and the honesty & the hardworking nature of the people was suppressed & neglected at each level. Hence, it could be concluded that there was an institutionalised effort to discard honesty so that national wealth & assets could be looted freely. Some of the police & 148 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? even judiciary along with administration and the government had hand in hand carrying out such a mockery of the common man & the poorest of the poor of this country by unleashing the “Power of Corrupts(POCs)” on them so that to accept it leaving no scope for the honest to survive. So, there was no connect of the project sanction with the development, hence, no worry towards project delivery in a time frame. More time towards project completion means more money could be sucked in for loot by this syndicate. They were not concerned with the development of the country or the welfare of people or in addressing poverty but creating huge empires to themselves. So, this was the past, this GoI inherited from the last regime when they took over. Could you imagine that black money of the order of about $ 760-780 billion had flown in India between 2004-2014 from Swiss Accounts or from tax haven destinations and about $ 175 billion gone outside India as per USbased think-tank Global Financial Integrity report available in media? This all was handled by the Hawala Marketers that flourished with no checks & balances in systems on it so it thrived with a 100% trust factor as everyone was making money in the processes. This entire money was plundered from India over a period of time and kept at safe destinations. As per media reports there are 02 big An Analysis of Indian Economy... 149 private banks, 05 TV Channels or Media Groups, 02 big NBFCs & many businesses & Corporate, the famous hospitals & many educational institutions and MNCs those have come up with the money of corrupts sucked in from the government exchequer or from the taxpayers share and they are making huge profits without any audits as either the politicians or the babus or other big influential’s & corrupts do have a substantial stakes in them. A huge amount of black money was`brought back into the country via tax havens using promissory notes or instruments (PNs) and that could easily be traced as invested into the share market in a big way & also in Real Estate. The stripping of funds has been utilised in a big way as there was no fear of a regulator. The mechanism & this instrument in the form of Promissory Notes was discovered or invented by the previous regime to provide legitimacy in bringing back such huge illegal or black money back into the country and it is found only in India as to support this system without being caught or even questioned by anyone. SO, TAKING THE NATION OUT FROM SUCH A SHOCKING STATE TO WHAT IT IS NOW TODATE AFTER 04 YEARS IS INDEED NOT ONLY COMMENDABLE, VISIONARY, BOLD BUT INDEED EXCEPTIONAL ALSO. The credit to make it possible certainly goes to the people of 150 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? this country who withstood along with Modi not only during elections but also during the period of Demonetization because they knew that a firm commitment is there from his side to improve the things forever though one should consider that how difficult is to break such a corrupt system that existed for so long i.e. for about 06 decades. The people did become accustomed to deal with black money only as every class was keen to make more money through corruption as they had to pay in getting other things done for running the day to day life routines. I hope it has been made simple and amply clear for you all to understand. So, Demonetization was not only a historic, game changer, biggest radical reform in independent India & a boldest decision taken by an Indian Prime Minister ever but also it was a well thought & planned economic decision in order to carry out a reality check & bring a stability phase into the Indian Economy so that a Robust Multi-Story Building of “New India Development” could be erected on a Solid Foundation which shall be Benami Properties Free and Corruption & Black Money Resilient Economy for the generations ahead. The DeMo was done with an element of surprise in order to get it yielded into creating “Digital Trails” of the deposits made or benami properties purchased by the corrupts so that An Analysis of Indian Economy... 151 appropriate actions could be initiated later. The advantages of DeMo have already been written by me in my earlier blogs so I am not going to repeat them. The return of nearly entire amount to the banks during DeMo does not tantamount that it does not have a component of Black Money though it is fact that it has been deposited as white as of now i.e. INR 15.28 Lakh Crores against INR 15.44 Lakh Crores. About 12 -13 % less currency in circulation at present is an indication that “Digital Transactions” have increased many folds as expected. The Direct, as well as an Indirect Tax base, is also grown on the expected lines. So, it could be stated emphatically that DeMo created the desired impact on Indian Economy and it achieved its objectives completely as envisaged & targeted to create a design for a robust Economic Structural Framework & a Resilient Ecosystem. I feel there are the concerted efforts under a sinister design by some frustrated leaders to downgrade the efforts of Modi and his government made over the last 04 years as either these people were the part of the same gang of corrupts or someone within and a section of media is also in support in many ways to take this narrative of painting a gloomy picture of the economy forward. An aggression is visible on the Social Media as well. This syndicate of corrupts 152 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? are pulling up all the resources available at their disposal behind the curtains somehow to gain lost grounds against Modi and the institutionalised efforts of GoI so far against corruption & black money. But let me tell you that they won’t succeed as the people of the country know well that for the Prime Minister, the nation is first and not the party and they believe him in ultimate that he shall do what he says. I am sure that the PM is capable to deliver to meet these expectations. If he is failing in his promise what he made to the people of this great nation, the country will fail for a very long time. I am sure he will not. 3. GST Implementation Challenges: I would like to offer my comments that little more dry runs or the pilots could have been carried out to create required “Digital Infrastructure or Ecosystem” and also for creating an Awareness Impact among SMEs before putting the GST in place. There should have been more efforts to bring the SMEs on board so that they had complete clarity of Digital Returns Filing. It is also submitted that it could have been implemented only with a structure of 03 slabs (0% and < 5%, 12% & 18% only OR maybe just 02 at 08 % & 15%) as maximum and the returns could have been further simplified for an income up to 60 lakhs per year totally exempted. I shall call it a collective slackness on the part of states as well An Analysis of Indian Economy... 153 as they could not bring home such perspectives of SMEs before according their final consent towards GST implementation. Though it is not late & very much in hands, hence, such efforts could be put in place at the earliest with sustained & collective efforts interacting with all the Stake Holders. The problem of claiming refunds in EXIM should be streamlined ASAP. The technology issues also could be settled from the point of strategic vision rather serving short-term gains. So, there is no need for any panic as GST & DeMo cumulative impact shall propel Indian Economy to the doubledigit growth by 2019-20 for sure. 4. The Challenges in Hands: The further consolidation along with strengthening of public sector banks in order to boost their credit lending appetite, ensuring spurt in private investments & the implementation of IBC to sort out NPAs at the earliest, making every effort towards enhancing exports to control EXIM deficit, removing farmers stress by offering MSP and growth to pick up double-digit at the earliest along with an increase in job creation in sectors those are lacking presently are the challenges in hands. Though all parameters are steady & picking the upward trends, still, how to further augment them is recommended below as a way ahead purely in my views on the subject?. 154 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? 5. A way ahead: Short Terms: (a) The GOI should bring all the achievement of last 04 years those are certainly enough to create a positive buzz in front of the public via TV channels under the dedicated briefings in Hindi as well as in English at prime times by a select few experts who understand the Prime Ministers’ initiated Flag Ship Programme thoroughly. The Party Spokes persons presently are only either from the political front or with a legal background so they are neither able to address most of the questions raised in debates about the achievements of GoI nor able to explain the vision of the Prime Minister in respect of Flagship Programme from the aspect of technology & vision involved in them with a distinct clarity required during TV debates. It certainly sends an ambiguous stimulus to the people and the interested party or the persons, hence, opposition parties are able to exploit such situations in order to make comments though with no substance against the present status of Indian Economy but misleading the public connecting it to so many other issues such as No Job Creation, Credit Decline, Exports Shrinking, Middle Income Group & An Analysis of Indian Economy... 155 Poor Burdened, Farming Distress on increase and Informal Economy & Traditional Jobs is ruined totally. If such a step is taken it shall put forward a positive message for the people to feel proud rather getting stuck up with the negative narratives being run by some of these interested entities and it must be addressed on priority ASAP. (b) NPAs are to be settled ASAP. IBC has some limitations, hence, if siphoning of funds has taken place which is the case in maximum NPAs, the culprits involved without looking into rank & file must be punished with a Fast Track Mechanism under PMLA or IPC and side by side IBC formalities must be carried forward with the fastest speed possible. If IBC has certain limitations or encountering some problems in dealing with a particular sector such as Real Estate needs to be rectified at the earliest. The RERA has made a great contribution for the real state sector. The delay in sorting out NPAs has certainly taken a toll on the economy as it has resulted in a decline in credit growth. Further, it is stated that neither financial support nor a stimulus from the GOI nor the merger of some Banks controlled by States with PSBs shall serve a purpose. It is known to everyone that some of 156 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? such State-run & managed Banks might have received a huge amount of unaccounted funds during De Mo as converted black money in to white. So, it needs utmost attention & through investigations before initiating any decision about the merger of such default banks with the big PSBs as it may defeat the Clean Money Initiative. (c) MSMEs are to be paid an immediate attention to National Priority with the provisioning of adequate fundings out of way at reduced interest rates but only to those who are having a clean image, audited balance sheet & a potential either to restore operations for an increased production with quality or with those are with exports potential if affected or if their output has declined or if possibility to increase their outputs with more resources and to those who have potential for manufacturing new products for exports or to support big industries or the defence manufacturing with supply of small parts or high tech electronics systems or devices . Also, to the units which have potential to increase its output as per demand inside the country itself. An audit needs to be carried out of the loans extended under Mudra Yojna to map job creation realistically and ensuring proper An Analysis of Indian Economy... 157 utilisation of funds at the earliest. As quality assets creation with such loans is a must. I am sure MSME with the required support in the form of Financial Stimulus, reduced interest rate loans, change in GST slabs so to give a boost & matching Quality Skill Creation can serve “Make in India” in a big way to revive the economy, especially it can serve a great deal & contribute tremendously in Defence Manufacturing under Make in India. The big emphasis must be for the manufacturing of high-tech equipments & devices starts at the earliest in a big way. Without this the defence manufacturing shall not find a success. We have to have indigenous technology incubation leading innovation in a big way to achieve much desired success in this field. (d) The Clean Money Phase-II should be now expanded to all the accounts those are under shadow or doubts by virtue of so-called the created Digital Trails during De Mo available with the CBDT at a fast speed now. It is now confirmed that the deposited money into banks during De Mo of the order of 03 to 04 lakh crore is certainly not the legitimate money though people were able to convert it into white through various illegal routes or means with the support of the corrupt 158 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? system that existed. So, it needs to be found & ascertained at the earliest so that the common & honest people can appreciate the efforts of GoI as they would like to see that someone who is staying with them and involved in a big-time corruption is having some action against as nothing has happened to them so far. It is pertinent to mention that quite a few just bought Benami properties showing payments in cash before De Mo or during it. Some have shown Farm Incomes in Crores inappropriately and quite a few bought Gold and antiques along with other costly items. Also, some paid in cash towards the renovation of their houses during De Mo showing it as paid before it. Some bureaucrats & government employees working at top positions in state governments say UP or Karnatakka rather UP under previous regime such as Secretaries or Additional Secretaries & SEs or Chief Engineers in Electricity Dept & Excise Department or as Commissioners etc or as CEOs of various States Corporations & Chairman of Municipalities, Chairman of Co-operative Banks of states or especially in PWD or in Financial Corporations etc or in Noida & Greater Noida Authorities those were in collusion with the Politicians of that An Analysis of Indian Economy... 159 government might have converted their old cash @ of about 70 to 80 % of its cash value into new currency of Rs.2000/- & Rs.500/- notes denomination & might have stocked it once again swiftly and now they are spending it without fear in cash on daily basis. Some of them even might have sent money outside the country through Hawala Rackets to their wards or relations or even some might have deposited in NRI accounts of the relations. It is a fact that a large numbers of Bank Managers of PSBs might have also made a huge amount of money during De Mo helping out conversion either through Defunct Accounts or in Some Newly Opened Accounts or putting it in some of Jan Dhan Accounts by offering some money to poor people the holders of such accounts. So, the efforts are to be expedited to unearth this money at the earliest with whatever efforts it may need. Some of the old-time politicians active from last 10--40 years, babus and the government servants including states governments employees of all class in each sphere of life were involved in corruption and every one of such people have income & benami properties many times the worth or income they had. So, easily they could be caught for having Assets 160 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? Disappropriate to their Income as not paying applicable Income Tax in the past. NCR & Mumbai does have the largest population of such corrupts and merely having a look at their houses could be made out that how much money they could have made. These potential corrupts are certainly not more than 01% of the Indian population so identifying them and then initiating an action against them ASAP is not a difficult task. Without doing it, the Clean Money Initiative shall not achieve its desired impact if we have to become a Developed Nation in true sense. It is also sure that if they are caught it may result in to disclosure of an income of about 05 lakh crores instantly. So, I recommend that Income Tax departments & ED must be strengthened to take up this task. I could but people don’t understand the constraints that why action has not been taken for such a long time after De Mo against corrupts. Though it is a fact that about 03 lakh shell companies have been caught and accounts of about 02 lakhs have been ceased. About, 01 lakh independent directors have been debarred from their job for next 05 years and a list of 50,000 out of them has been released to media as well. It is also a fact that an income of about Rs. 89,000 crores has been An Analysis of Indian Economy... 161 caught and a benami property worth Rs.11, 000 crores have been unearthed. Also, the investigations in Panama Papers has resulted in to a disclosure of an income worth Rs. 1,150 crores. The political parties out of 1768 those who have not fought elections so far till date shall be looked into and their accounts also need to be ceased forthwith without delay and cancellation of their license and their money be attached to GoI accounts. (e) A warning once again to be given by the government of India that the people possessing Benami properties in India or abroad either they declare it by 30 Nov 17 by paying adequate amount of taxes or penalties in certain percentage of cost or actual value of the property as on date decided by the GoI, otherwise it shall be taken over by the GoI by 31 Dec 17. The whistleblowers providing information about the same be compensated in India as well as abroad at least the 10% or higher of the cost of such properties, in either case, i.e. whether the penalties paid or taken over by the GOI. The whistleblower’s identities are to be protected and security provided. (f) The Electoral Reforms making all the donations to the political parties may be made ASAP either by cheque or through 162 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? Digital Transactions only is a must to send a clear message to the industry or to all the stakeholders that they need to amend ways to carry on business with Ethical Practices as per The Companies Act. It is needed to send this message to the big businesses as well as they won’t invest till then as they feel that they can mould the government the way they want. So, a most awaited political will needs to be exhibited as was done for De Mo. Some of the businesses have used government & exploited its resources rather harnessed them in the past in their favour before the present GoI took over. Their approach is still up to the ministries’ files as a corrupt element at low to middle level is still working for them in tandem with some hidden ones at the top level as well either working or retired as they are still seating in the Boards of PSUs as well, hence, they may again try to influence decisions. Though this GoI has succeeded without any scam or any corruption at the top so far. It is indeed commendable but same is not the case at a lower level.CAG may be made authorised to audit political parties funds as soon as Electoral Reforms are put in place. The corrupts & the candidates having a criminal background should be denied An Analysis of Indian Economy... 163 tickets by all parties in any election and they should be debarred once convicted by a court. It should be done by a law amending The Peoples Representation Act at the earliest. The ruling party being the biggest party in the world having about 11-12 crore membership and with about donations worth 1200 crores received in last 03 years in party fund has an onus to declare preference to such Electoral Reforms though the Hon’ble Prime Minister has spoken on the issue a number of times & emphasized towards the need of it. So, the opposition must support this initiative at the earliest in order to improve image of polity. The electoral bonds are certainly not going to serve any purpose and the changes brought through money bill by way of getting “unlimited” & “Anonymous” corporate funding to the political parties including from the foreign companies shall defeat the very purpose. So, the amendments brought in IT Act, Companies Act, The Representations of the People Act, RBI Act and Foreign Contribution Regulation Act has brought more ambiguity rather cleaning the mess. So, it needs to be addressed on priority otherwise it won’t take much longer to change the people’s perception. WITHOUT 164 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? ELECTORAL REFORMS IN A CANDID WAY AS SUGGESTED SHALL NOT TAKE FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION TO THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION. The election for the Parliament & Assemblies may be conducted together as it shall reduce a lot of expenses for all the political parties and it must be implemented at the earliest. One Nation One Poll is again a very pragmatic & timely call by the Hon’ble Prime Minister towards implementation of Electoral Reforms as desired. (g) The Panama, HSBC & Swiss Banks list is required to be made public without delay along with progress in all the corruption cases running in various courts or about the scams along with the details of updates of the cases going on at various Courts/DRTs/NCLT etc. A provision shall be bought either through Parliament or with an Ordinance from the President making a law that all the Economic Crimes & Frauds cases at any court or tribunals including the provision of appeals should be disposed of within a maximum time limit of six months. It is a must to protect the quality of assets. It shall also send a definite message to all the Stake Holders that this government is candid to take the fight now against corruption to the highest An Analysis of Indian Economy... 165 level from there is no looking back whom so ever mighty he or she may be including the babus, businessman & politicians. It is the most opportune time now then never as opportunities never come back with the same potential in order to create the desired impact for a needed Social Change which is so vital for India. Even the names of leaders or Bollywood people as per Vohra Committee Report should also be made public as the Political Probity is must now to take India ahead to the next level. A press briefing by the Law Ministry about the progress of all the cases in respect of economic frauds & scams may be done on national channel so that common man of this country will understand what action has been taken as he has a strong perception that NO POLITICAL LEADER SHALL GO BEHIND BAR OR GET PUNISHED AS HE OR SHE CAN PULL THE CASE FOR 25 YEARS IN DIFFERENT COURTS WITH THE HELP OF BIG LAWYERS AND SOMEHOW MANAGE IT, SO THIS HAS TO BE REMOVED BY THE PRESENT GOI AT THE EARLIEST as much headway has not been made in about 12 biggest scams that took place in earlier regimes. Even if the past records of Corporate & their Balance Sheets before this government 166 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? may not be looked in to but no one should be spared if Loan Money is diverted for some other purpose or a fraud with GoI money or allocated lands have been caused. SEBI should look into that which all Corporate with subsidiary companies & other listed companies have manipulated share markets with PNs invested from tax haven countries and how they are involved with speculation gaining advantages. It is a very serious issue. How the companies are able to raise money many times their worth by forging their balance sheets and manipulating assets. It must be investigated under the ambit of Corporate Governance. Some companies are selling lands allocated to them by the state governments or showing it as part of their assets which is wrong. Some have bought agriculture land and claiming tax benefits showing many inflated incomes which is not possible through agriculture means. Any Corporate which has been given a mine on lease by the government cannot mortgage the same with banks or any other financial institutions and take loans. Any corporate which is involved in such wrong practices should not be allowed to enter in to Defence Manufacturing under Make in India. (h) The new Rs.2000/- & Rs.500/- notes again are to be demonetised by a firm date and in lieu An Analysis of Indian Economy... 167 more Rs.200/- and Rs.100/- should be printed and circulated. It shall be an ultimate solution to end corruption as well as Black Money generation forever. It shall further boost the Digital Transactions & the Digital Payments many folds turning towards a complete Cashless & Transparent Economy. (i) The reduction in bank lending rates, as well as an increase in conventional savings such as FDs/PPFs/NPS/Kisan Vikas Patra, may be implemented. The Direct Tax up to an income 08 lakhs per year be abolished but Indirect Tax exemption on business may be lowered to 12 lakhs per year from the 20 lakhs PA as of now. The illegal shops, vendors run without any papers with the support of police & municipalities may be brought onboard to pay taxes. The businesses and rich people having Income Tax exemptions on agriculture which have not been inherited by them but it have been purchased by them must be taxed with immediate effect as they show inflated income against agriculture. There are many who have purchased such agriculture lands with their black money component. Every class of people is there a part of this gang enjoying income tax exemptions under the garb of agriculture income. 168 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? Long-term: (a) An audit of all the PSUs production or manufacturing capacities along with schedules or orders in hands including the defence ones need to be carried out along with the Ordnance Factory Board, DRDO and other Government of India Organisations to see to it that Quality Manufacturing Output & assigned mandate, R&D and other Projects Schedule are in place, capacities do exist to deliver in time and ensuring a professional & competent leadership to lead such premier Organisations. India can’t afford delays in such project of National Importance anymore that took place in the past whether it was LCA & Dhurva Helicopter Projects, Main Battle Tank, ATV Submarrine Project & Project -15 Conventional Submarine or may be many others as lot of delays took place. The delays in such projects have put India behind at least by 25 years and loss of huge taxpayer’s money in the past before this government. It is also seen that some PSUs have deliberately delayed such projects so that the orders go in the hands of private businesses. Some big Private Businesses have come up at the cost of PSUs, hence, at the cost of tax payer’s money. It also supported the import of Defence Equipments, An Analysis of Indian Economy... 169 Weaponry and War Systems. It needs to be focused & accorded a Top Most National Priority as without this country can’t create a culture of Innovation and R&D efforts shall always be wanting. The Research into Basic Sciences is to be made lucrative with a lot of push so to gain an advantage in R&D. So, an increased allocation of funds is needed for scientific research but all such institutes are to be run by the top-class leadership of scientists to ensure Quality & Innovation. A synergy in R&D efforts is a must. It is pertinent to mention that the share of global MNCs by big corporate have been purchased through PNs routed via tax havens countries, hence inflated the share price of such companies. So, the financial honesty of such companies needs to be audited so that it is found at the earliest who all are involved in it as some companies have sustained the heavy expansion of their services for a long time with freebies with the money available to their disposal via this route. Such companies should be barred from entering into defence manufacturing. India needs to find that which all companies took GoI for a ride in the past and took maximum benefit out of it as they followed corrupt practices. So, it also needs 170 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? to be considered as a Corporate Corruption. They have created a wrong culture that needs to be galvanised with tough actions against them otherwise they shall remain in the garb that with the power of the money they can get away with anything as they can buy any amount of political leaders. (b) The Fiscal Audit of the respective States needs to be carried & taken into account as they are responsible to carry forward the implementation of GoI Flag Ship programme. I know that many states are under a huge amount of external debt so they need to be careful now that from where the finances are to be organised and for what schemes as per priority as states debt had increased considerably till 2014. It is pertinent to mention that the huge portion of such debts taken from various internal agencies or banks or from the international financial agencies were also siphoned in the past in respective states and that money also created huge amount of Black Money in the hands of select few and they used this illegal money to create their benami empires. It is pertinent to mention that DBT indeed has saved a huge amount of money of the order of about Rs.58, 000 crores still the assets quality of Toilets Construction An Analysis of Indian Economy... 171 & Digging of New Ponds or Renovation or Restoration of Old Ponds in villages with MGNREGA grants is not at all satisfactory as Quality Assets have not been created. So, still the leakages are taking place, hence, an audit of the same is needed to be carried out at the earliest. Geo tagging does not ensure the quality on grounds. The funds released for the village development is quite substantial especially in UP, Bihar, Rajasthan & MP but it reaches to the ground zero through various layers of the system. It is pertinent to mention that such funds are mismanaged to a great extent and there is the leakage of about 30-40 % and even remaining 60-70% spent for the purpose is not converting the quality assets. The same is the situation of funds released towards schools & hospitals or for other government assets’ maintenance or for the expansion & for the Mid-Day Meal Scheme and Anganwadi Scheme etc. If this corruption is stopped and it gets converted in the creation of Quality Assets which could serve for a maximum time span for what it is created shall certainly make a huge spurt in growth. The same is the situation at Municipalities or in Development Authorities as they are a hub of biggest corruption and most lethargic 172 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? organisations though they are improving now. If India has to move forward with the desired growth we need to push these two basic but the most powerful entities in India to come out of corruption at the earliest. I know it is a most difficult task but not beyond the capabilities of the present GoI. (c) I feel the village development funds should be spent by the GoI directly for the next 05 years by creating a department of “PM Village Transformation Scheme” having adequate staff to it under a minister of state. Let’s first implement it in UP, Rajasthan, MP & Haryana and Delhi for a select number of villages. I am sure it shall change the entire outlook of the development as money could be utilised 100% in such projects to create Quality Assets without any corruption. I could draw a Road Map for the same achievable with 12 months of its launch. (d) The encroachment of ponds and other types of government lands in villages especially in UP is in abundance. It shall serve a great source of extra revenue generation for the government and if the ponds are de-encroached it shall serve the greatest purpose to restore depleting water tables in these areas. It shall change the dynamics of Climate Control to the desired An Analysis of Indian Economy... 173 level and it must be accorded a Top Most National Priority. (e) Even some big sugar factories owners in Uttar Pradesh are not clearing payments to the farmers as they use such funds in share market to earn about 30 to 40 % profits, hence, a technique i.e. could be called stripping of funds. Such owners who are having many sugar factories under their banner or group have made fortune is last few years, hence, increased number of factories many times beside creation of assets through diversion of funds. (f) The Hon’ble Prime Minister is requested to revamp Education & Medical Facilities in the country and he may get it analysed and then announce a big Flag Ship programme towards much awaited & badly needed revamping of Basis Education & the Basic Medical Facilities Infrastructure in the country in a big way especially in neglected rural areas so far. It is keeping at least 80% population of India away from these basic parameters of development. The audits of all the existing government’s schools & the hospitals are to be carried out at the earliest and a comprehensive report of the same be brought within a month so that required resources could be supplemented in 174 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? the existing schools & hospitals in order to improve their services at affordable rates for the poor, farmers and low-income groups of the society. The teachers’’ vacancies could be filled at the earliest with quality teachers without any corruption as Basic Shiksha Adhikari are involved in big-time corruption. Also, at least 500 new schools up to 12th standard with a minimum teaching staff of 50 teachers & other needed staff and 500 government hospitals with a staff of 50 including 15 doctors at each may be constructed & made operational by 2022 by 15th Aug only in Rural Areas so that an affordable basic but top class education & medical facilities could be provided to all. IT IS PERTINENT TO MENTION THAT A SIMILAR CURRICULUM & BOOKS SHOULD BE APPLICABLE TO ALL SCHOOLS WITHOUT ANY DEVIATION AS IT IS MUST AND BE DONE WITHOUT Losing TIME AS PRIVATE SCHOOLS ARE CHARGING HEFTY FEES & PROVIDING AN EDUCATION WHICH CREATES BREAD EARNERS AND NOT THE BREAD PROVIDERS WITH NATIONAL CHARACTER.It shall need about 75,000- 95,000 crores as capital investments and about 5,000 crores PA as recurring expenses which An Analysis of Indian Economy... 175 could be made sustainable & affordable. This money can come from 09 PSUs which they have in Cash i.e. about INR 2.43 lakh Crores with them. It shall change the entire dynamics of the country development, especially in rural areas. It is also added here that entire Basic Education must be amended & made India Value & Culture-specific With a lot of impetus on our great past of the nation in old times, great philosophers, poets, brave kings and the freedom fighters and the martyrs so that young generation feels proud of India past rather getting driven to western schooling at primary age. The age for primary education for Class -01st be made at least 07 years as a minimum so that the kids could enjoy their childhood to the maximum in order to become mature & intelligent human beings rather becoming earning machines. Before 07 years but above 03 years can be part of Primary Education and that shall be only playing games with each other so that strong ties or inculcating a habit of helping each other could be foster. We need to understand that India was Torch bearer till 1200 century in every field and at number 01 economically as it was called “Sone Ki Chidya”. Such an effort shall go a long way in revamping the Rural 176 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? Development as well as in ensuring an increase in literacy rate there along with covering the poorest of the poor with decent but affordable medical & education facilities. It could be the biggest Financial Inclusion Initiative launched on this earth so far in addition to the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yozna, Pradhan Mantri Awas Vikas Yozna, Social Security Schemes and other Rural Development Schemes. It shall uplift GDP by at least 2% as lot of associated activities with plenty of job opportunities will emerge. All the school buses shall be the Electricity run and Quality Food is to be given to all. All these hospitals & schools must be run on Renewable Energy. Though, there is an urgent need of revamping Higher Education as well by bringing stiff regulations especially cutting down their fees in Private Colleges, Institutions, Business Schools and Medical Colleges as it was a creation during the time when a lot of corruption was there and the wards of such corrupts could afford such a costly education but not now when the country is moving away from the corruption. It needs a drastic change within a year and also to carry out an Audit of Such Institutions at the earliest to fix a discipline and the financial prudence for them. An Analysis of Indian Economy... 177 I have a plan towards the same. It could alter the future of the nation and could contribute a great deal in New India Development. (g) The Divestment plan in PSUs including in Air India be held in abeyance as it is worth mentioning that GoI industries & PSUs were created once upon a time in order to address regional imbalances in order to create jobs & carrying out required development in such regions and there were so many PSUs those are doing well and some are Nav Ratnas also. We need to look into that some Private Industries have come up at the cost of the Public Sector. A company getting created from the Hindustan Zincs and some Refineries are getting the share of GoI Refineries and there are plenty of such examples including telecom companies at the cost of BSNL & MTNL. The GoI has given a lot of support to the Private Industries in the past from the taxpayer’s money. India needs to look from a practical point of view that why the PSUs became sick & incurred losses and how they could be reviewed rather ending them with divestment. The leadership is the core issue as Objective could be changed & managed. Why some of them could not function to the capacity created is a matter of great concern to the people of this country 178 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? and why the DRDO projects or other Projects of India Security Concerns got delayed? It is must to investigate first that what happened to Air India and how the corruption in big deals took place and how the money sanctioned for a revival of Air India got siphoned off to some people is indeed a matter of investigations. Some reports made rounds in media that One Private Bank has come up with the money that some politicians who have pocketed the money from Air India purchase of aeroplane deals. So, such matters need an investigation rather disinvestment otherwise the things are not going to change and the people shall again be fed up with GoI attempts to eradicate corruption.GOI has to make sure that the past practices are forgotten by the PSUs & PSBs ASAP and an effective leadership should head all these organisations by removing the tainted board of directors, chairman and MDs at the earliest. It is must with top most priority as India is now taking a big lead towards Defence Manufacturing in Make in India under PPP & Technology Transfer Regime. The entire nation knows that why the indigenous efforts towards Defence Manufacturing were curtailed in between or deliberately delayed in the past so that huge amount of spending An Analysis of Indian Economy... 179 could be done for the procurement of Defence Weaponry, Equipment, Platforms & Systems so that huge amount of money could be made as a commission through a route of corruption. We need to change the mindset of top leadership heading best laboratories of DRDO or GoI, PSUs and select the best leaders to run them so that desired results could be obtained within a given time frame in order to achieve National Objectives. This must be the topmost priority of the GoI as we do not need pushovers or timid or corrupt leaders anymore to head PSUs & PSBs. It is to be weighted that why an inefficient leader become a good leader in private moving from the government? It is not difficult to fix the issue. Once, it is fixed, many Private Organisations shall follow ethical practices and become the best Organisations in the world. We need to achieve that ASAP. So, the accountability of Private Organisations should be an agenda in New India Development and towards ensuring that a lot needs to be done. The efficiently run PSUs with honest leaders at the top management shall have tremendous potential to contribute towards Defence Manufacturing under Make in India. Even, the GoI should have stakes in the deals 180 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? for Defence Manufacturing those have been signed between a foreign company and the Indian Private Sector under Make in India either without Transfer of Technology or with it as GoI is going to buy the products, hence, it has to be of best quality and at reasonable price otherwise once again the monopoly of Private Sector shall prevail. (h) The road ministry should create Electric Charging Stations along the Highways before the Electric Cars & Electric Buses are run. First, the AC Electrical Buses on long routes more than 200 km should be introduced. Even the long electric trucks of higher capacity with overhead Electrical Lines on both the sides of Highways may be created as part of An Integrated Logistic Network with 30 fit broad routes with fencing on both sides. I am sure electric run regular trucks running on defined roads on both the sides can revolutionise the Supply Chain in India. It can be innovated. We, India need such Innovative Solutions rather we copy any other technology.The Elevated Cycle Tracks & Pathways can revolutionaries public health and avoid traffic congestion along the highways. It shall create a new culture of running and cycling which is the order in so many vibrant & developed An Analysis of Indian Economy... 181 countries. So, we need to be futuristic in our thinking. (i) The Honourable Prime Minister has done a tremendous hard work in last 03 years in negotiating and signing Civil Nuclear Deals with so many important nations in this field, so India must make use of it and boost the Nuclear Power programme so that at least 1/4th Energy requirements must be met with Nuclear Power by 2030. I have formulated a plan for this initiative also. A leadership shall make a difference in this field as we have Thorium in abundance, hence, Thorium based big reactors along with advanced stage SMRs could make a huge difference along with 3-stage indigenous Nuclear Power Strategy is being pursued by the DAE. (j) It is also recommended that GOI should keep track of such issues very seriously that incident of Gold Import from South Korea and later from Indonesia does not recure as it gives a feel either of incompetence or deliberate overlook as it provides windfall profits to a select few within a very short time. Conclusion I am sure that even without the above recommendations as I have made above, the Indian Economy shall grow 182 India: A $20 Trillion Economy by 2035-2040? steadily, strongly & certainly @ 6.8 to 7.1 % in 2017-18 and @ 7.7 to 8.2 % in 2018-19 for sure. It is presently undergoing a Consolidation Phase & riding on a Stability Ladder upwards as part of a Systematic Design of Economic Structural Reforms away from the Corruption & without a component of Black Money as explained above, hence it is sustainable for a long time with an increase year by pear. It is moving to Double-Digit Growth shortly. However, if the above recommendations are also taken into consideration it shall push the growth a little faster i.e. @ 8.0--8.5% in 2018-19 and @ 9.0 -10 % in 2019-20 and higher then onwards may be @12% in 2020-21 if the same government gets elected in 2019 and Modi is heading it. I am sure it will.?