ANALYSIS: How the Immigration Levels Plan for this year impacts Express Entry candidates' prospects of success

The most recent Immigration Levels Plan in Canada has important ramifications for foreigners using the Express Entry system to apply for permanent residence.

The Plan states that additional seats for permanent residency have been set aside for Express Entry applicants in 2025.

These modifications should be advantageous to two categories of candidates:

Candidates in Canada as well as those eligible for draws based on categories.

In 2025, it will likely be more difficult for candidates who do not fit into the aforementioned emphasis categories to receive an invitation to apply (ITA) through Express Entry.

The combined 2025 objective of 124,680 for the "In-Canada Focus" and "Economic Priorities" categories is higher than the 2024 target as well as the 2025 target from the Immigration Levels Plan from the previous year.

In 2024, the IRCC set a target of 110,770 for the "federal high skilled" (FHS) category, which includes the three federal immigration programs controlled by Express Entry: the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), and the Canadian Experience Class (CEC).

The IRCC set a goal of 117,500 for FHS in 2025 in the Immigration Levels Plan from the previous year.

Applicants hoping to enter through programs run by Express Entry should anticipate receiving more invites in 2025 than in 2024.

Canadian candidate prioritization

The IRCC added a new category called "In-Canada Focus" to the budget for economic immigration for programs run by Express Entry in this year's Plan.

With the creation of this category, candidates who are already residing in Canada might anticipate that their chances of being invited to apply (ITA) would rise in 2025.

The IRCC established a target of 82,980 for this category in 2025, which is almost 42% of the 197,650 federal economic immigration objective.

The likelihood of earning an ITA is expected to be lower for overseas applicants for the FSWP or FSTP. We deducted the 34,500 for Quebec Skilled Workers and Business from the 232,150 overall economic immigration target. Quebec has its own admissions and immigration goals.

Currently, the categories are

competency in French; careers in healthcare;

jobs in trade, transportation, agriculture, and agri-food; jobs in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM); and jobs in agriculture.

In the Levels Plan, the federal government specifically identified the following areas as priority for 2025.

jobs in the healthcare industry, trade, and fluency in French.

Candidates for Express Entry who qualify for these category-based lotteries might have a higher chance of getting an ITA in 2025.

A applicant normally needs six months of work experience (or an equal quantity of part-time work) in an eligible occupation within the previous three years in order to be eligible for a category-based draw for an in-demand occupation.

The Background of In-Canada Focus

Immigration Minister Marc Miller declared on March 21, 2024, that the IRCC will give "domestic draws" priority in order to facilitate the transfer of temporary residents in Canada to permanent residents.

The IRCC issued 25,700 ITAs over eight CEC draws between May and October of 2024.

Since April 23, 2024, the IRCC has not conducted a general draw.

Additionally, the IRCC declared that by 2026, it hopes to lower the proportion of temporary residents in the population from the current levels of roughly 7% to 5%.