Analysis on the Governmental Castling

The current situation

Exactly when we were ready to witness the handling of the leadership of the Executive from PNL to PSD, the leaders of the Coalition decided to postpone the government castling, in the context of the crisis in education. PM Nicolae Ciuc? based this decision on the importance of social stability, specifically by continuing the dialogue with the education unions. Even future prime minister, PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu, mentioned that this is a "correct" decision, which the three leaders assumed together. Additionally, UDMR president and Deputy prime minister Kelemen Hunor also called for predictability and responsibility, in order to “strengthen trust in society”. We recall, however, the initial statements of PM Nicolae Ciuc?, who was ready to resign on May 26, so that Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) would take over the leadership of the Executive by June 1. The Prime minister had even announced that it was decided, within the coalition, that the future Government would have 18 ministries, instead of the current 20.

It seems, however, that the decision to postpone the castling came not from the leaders of the Coalition, but from President Klaus Iohannis, who called for the resolution of the crisis in education before PNL hands over the baton to PSD. The head of state emphasized that, at this moment, it is not important whether the castling will be done in a week or two, as there should be stability before anything else. And thus, the dialogue between the Government and the education unions continued this week, with a first meeting held on May 29, when an offer of the Executive was presented. According to the political leaders, an agreement in this regard will be assumed, followed by a Memorandum that will be adopted and published in the Official Gazette. This offer comes in addition to the budget allocations regarding the maximum increase of the grids provided by Law 153/2017 for all staff in Education. Additionally, with the role of a negotiator between the politicians and the civil society, President Klaus Iohannis invited the leaders of the governing coalition for consultations about the strike in education, today, May 31. On Tuesday, the head of state met with a delegation of education union leaders in the context of the general strike launched in education.

What next?

Even if the crisis in education will be solved today, there is no time for the government castling to happen until tomorrow, June 1, as the political leaders expected, which is great news for the social democrats. After all, PSD is not the kind of party that would take over a government with such a crisis as the first item on its agenda. In fact, Marcel Ciolacu himself stated that "is the right decision not to enter into political discussions until we resolve this teachers' strike, and then find, together, the best calendar for the castling." However, according to the information published in the media, the approach of the education unions regarding the initiation of the general strike is gradually expanding to all other public sectors, including health and transport, against the background of rising inflation and dissatisfaction with the way the Government is managing this social crisis. And the chances that the next strikes will take place at the beginning of Marcel Ciolacu's term as PM are quite high.

Although we do expect this political move to be completed perhaps next week or in a maximum of two weeks and this is because the Coalition has a solid majority in the Parliament. This is of a great importance given that, after the political parties go to consultation at the Cotroceni Palace and the President puts forward a proposal for a new prime minister (in this case the proposal will be Marcel Ciolacu), the new leader of the Government must sketch its future governing team and present it to the Parliament, for approval. Yes, there will be hearings of future ministers, in parliamentary committees, but with such the majority held by PNL-PSD-UDMR, this procedural step is only a formality – the future Government will pass the vote of the MPs without problems. Most probably, this whole governmental castling will not last longer than a few days. After the appointment of the future prime minister, the new Executive will have to reconsiders its organization, given the wish of the political leaders to reduce the number of ministries – which means the issuance of an emergency ordinance until the Parliament ends its ordinary session (July).

Implications

From a social point of view, what is now important is the end of the strike in education, which is delaying national assessments and the baccalaureate exam, causing problems even for college admissions. Politically speaking, the wage law is still waiting to be submitted to public consultation, while the social partners are also waiting for a dialogue with the governors on this topic. At the same time, the projects undertaken through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan are also under discussion, especially the issue of special pensions, which Marcel Ciolacu wants to take on as future prime minister. And this crisis in education, if it will be solved poorly, will cost dearly from an electoral point of view, especially for PNL. It is possible that even the social democrats will not escape the loss of some electoral percentages, as it is obvious that Marcel Ciolacu is running away from the responsibility of taking over the mandate of prime minister with a strike as the first item on his agenda. The problem is that, by losing electoral percentages, the only winner of this crisis is likely to be political extremism - in this context, the AUR party, which is rising alarmingly high in the political preferences of Romanian citizens anyway. On the other hand, if Nicolae Ciuc? solves the teachers' strike in a good manner, PNL has every chance to make a good political mark, while Ciuc? could, at least for a while, be perceived as a leader who solved several crises – an advantage for him and its party if he will consider to run in the 2024 presidential elections.

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