Analysis from Kevin O’Donnell, Lexington Associate Director

Looking back

On the morning of April 18th, Scotland’s new First Minister Humza Yousaf huddled in his office with his closest advisers - that day, in a statement to the Scottish Parliament, the SNP leader would attempt to ‘reset’ his government’s fortunes following a series of policy setbacks. A mere two hours from getting to his feet, the news broke that Police Scotland had arrested party treasurer, Colin Beattie MSP, as part of the hugely damaging and still ongoing investigation into the SNP’s finances.

Yousaf would go on to make his statement, but no-one was listening, and that day’s news cycle was dominated by the fall-out from the latest developments in what has since turned into an existential crisis for Scotland’s governing party. In many ways, the events of the morning of April 18th aptly sum up the legacy bequeathed to Humza Yousaf by his predecessor. Since taking office, he has witnessed the arrest of the former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, the arrest of her husband and former SNP Chief Executive, Peter Murrell, and he has been forced to make often embarrassing statements to camera; in one such moment, he had the unfortunate job of confirming to one lobby journalist that he did not believe he was presiding over a ‘criminal enterprise’. Rarely, if ever, has a newly elected national leader had to steer his or her party through such turbulent political times from the outset; some opponents have even spoken about feeling sorry for Humza Yousaf.

Looking forward

So, to take two. Today’s Programme for Government finally offered Humza Yousaf the opportunity to define himself in his own terms as Scotland’s First Minister. Yousaf, however, delivered the statement against a backdrop of division and infighting; only yesterday, Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster Leader – and someone not known for being coy about his ambitions to one day enter Bute House – reshuffled his group of MPs. Flynn, it is reported, is frustrated by Yousaf’s leadership; he believes that in the absence of any meaningful route to securing a second referendum, the SNP should fight the next election on the economy and the cost-of-living crisis. Yousaf, by contrast, has said the national question must be front-and-centre of any future SNP general election campaign. This schism between the two most important figures in Scottish nationalism is indicative of the general air of malaise which lingers over their party. Consistently falling in the polls – and preparing for a by-election drubbing in Hamilton and Rutherglen West – the party is seriously questioning its position as the hegemonic force in Scottish politics for the first time since Salmond’s landslide of 2011. The tension between Flynn and Yousaf merely highlights the seriousness of the situation in which the party now finds itself.

What the Programme for Government Statement will mean for families

This helps explain the balancing act performed by the First Minister during today’s Programme for Government Statement. Announcing a total of 14 new Bills to MSPs – covering everything from childcare to agriculture – Yousaf carefully spoke about tackling poverty and the need to drive forward and facilitate economic growth. He is acutely aware of how his Green Party coalition partners are viewed by some in the SNP, including by Kate Forbes, his still influential rival from the leadership contest earlier in the year. Yousaf was careful, therefore, not to fall into the trap of being seen to be beholden to his junior partners in government. This was authentic Humza Yousaf, speaking the language of social justice - home territory for him - while simultaneously attempting to display the outward pragmatism which came so naturally to Alex Salmond. The legislative agenda is, as you would expect from a Yousaf government, redistributive; the First Minister eyes an expansion of childcare, he has pledged to reform Scotland’s land ownership laws and has confirmed an Expert Steering Group will report to him on the feasibility of a Minimum Income Guarantee.

What it will mean for business

Crucially, Yousaf also sought to placate the business community, although controversial plans to crackdown on short-term lets have caused outrage amongst leaders of the Scottish tourist industry. Yousaf announced that the recommendations of the New Deal for Business Working Group will be implemented in full, including a revision of the non-domestic rates system in Scotland. He also pledged to bolster Scotland’s green renewable industry; in particular, plans to halve the consenting process for new onshore windfarms will be music to the ears of an industry which has lamented the laborious nature of the Scottish planning system for many years. Yousaf also confirmed that the Scottish Government will continue to invest in and implement Scotland’s Hydrogen Action Plan with the aim of making the country a centre of excellence for hydrogen technology. Opposition leaders then took to their feet to criticise the unambitious nature of today’s Programme for Government, but Humza Yousaf, for once catching a break, will hope today’s announcement marks a belated introduction to the country as a whole. He hopes it will sufficiently set him apart from his predecessor while enabling him to govern in the social democratic mould which informs his politics and his outlook.

What next?

With Labour neck-and-neck in the polls, and with rivals Stephen Flynn and Kate Forbes being so open about their future ambitions, Scotland’s First Minister knows there is little room for failure. In Scottish politics, for the first time in a long time, it really is everything to play for. ?