Analysis: Express Entry CRS Cut-off Score Pattern for 2022

Analysis: Express Entry CRS Cut-off Score Pattern for 2022

When we are all set to welcome a new year, we should remember what we achieved in 2022.?

In terms of the global pandemic and its impact on the immigration sector, 2022 was similar to the previous 2-3 years. But it started picking up pace in the second half, where after a gap of nearly two years, IRCC released the first express entry draw in the month of July this year.?

These Express Entry draws were released for the first time since 2020. The Express Entry system oversees three programs:

• The Federal Skilled Workers Program (FSWP);
• The Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP); and
• The Canadian Experience Class (CEC).

Let us understand the pattern of CRS cut-off scores in 2022.

On July 6th, IRCC started Express Entry draws, inviting 1,500 applicants with a CRS cut-off of 557 from the Express Entry pool.

As the year progressed, IRCC increased its invitations to 4,750 eligible applicants while decreasing CRS cut-offs below 500.

In the Post-COVID scenario, Canada is going through a rough phase wherein labour shortages persist across the country.

But with the re-introduction of Express Entry Draws, a turnaround is expected in the near future. By the facts, Canada has already processed a record number of immigrants this year, nearly 4.8 million applications.

Predicting the future CRS cut-offs with past data

Predicting future CRS scores based on historical cut-offs may appear to be an easy task at first look. With the passage of time, CRS cut-offs continue to fall as draws rise. In truth, the issue is more complicated.

The challenge with predicting future CRS scores from historical data is that there is no obvious pattern in how CRS cut-offs vary. It can also be easily observed with the help of the graph shown below:

It is difficult to predict the next CRS cut-off due to its inhibited uncertainty of the number of invitations and the CRS score. CRS cut-offs vary from draw to draw.

From the graph above, you can note the irregularity in CRS cut-offs. Between July 6th, 2022 to July 20th, 2022, the CRS cut-off dropped by 15 points; however, it only dropped 3 points between November 9th and the 23rd. Forecasting CRS scores would have been much easier if these declines were constant. But this is not the case.

Another essential factor to remember about the uncertainty of CRS cut-offs is immigration laws and policies, which keep changing regularly.?

IRCC is solely responsible for implementing CRS cut-offs. It implies that the department is not required to follow patterns or trends; instead, it can select CRS cut-offs and welcome immigrants according to Canada's economic requirements.

The best example was in February 2021, when IRCC invited 27,000 eligible immigrants under the Canadian Experience Class with a CRS cut-off of just 75, which is the lowest to date.

The second aspect to consider is an increase in CRS score cut-offs due to specific types of applications currently in the pipeline. For example, candidates in the Express Entry pool, who get an enhanced province nomination through a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), can earn up to 600 more CRS points just by virtue of their provincial nomination.

Similarly, CEC applicants frequently have Canadian education and work experience, which can significantly boost CRS scores and distort cut-offs for the overall Express Entry pool.

Therefore, predicting the next CRS cut-off is highly uncertain and challenging.?

Talking about the CRS score's future, we know we cannot predict the CRS cut-offs. But there is one critical policy change coming in 2023 that will significantly influence the CRS's impact on immigration, i.e., Bill C-19.

It was passed in June 2022. It provides the authority to the immigration minister to construct groupings (based on policy goals) inside the Express Entry pool and award ITAs to applicants within those categories.

For more details, you can call our WISA Experts at 011-71600450 or drop your queries at [email protected].