Analysis of the Electability,Competence and Suitability to the Job of the Various JUBILEE Governor aspirants in Nairobi County.

Analysis of the Electability,Competence and Suitability to the Job of the Various JUBILEE Governor aspirants in Nairobi County.

The Nairobi Gubernatorial Race in the coming 2017 election is promising to be a battle of titans between the incumbent CORD's Governor Kidero and whoever Will be given the JUBILEE ticket for the Nairobi County Governor's Seat.
As at Now more than 5 aspirants have declared interest on the seat of Nairobi City Governor and not suprisingly all are from the JUBILEE side. This is because the seat currently belongs to CORD and as such the incumbent is the one expected to fly the Party/Coalition ticket for the 2nd time running.

Some of the things to note about Nairobi County is that UhuRuto lost the Presidential vote to RAO in the 2013 Elections by a margin of not more than 33K,i.e RAO got 691K votes against UhuRuto's 659K votes. 
Another notable thing is that the CORD Coalition Won the Nairobi County vote whenever it voted as a Coalition and lost whenever it voted as separate Parties within the CORD Coalition.
This explains why CORD managed to win the Presidential vote and the Governor's seat where they voted as a Coalition and went ahead to lose the Senator and Women Rep Position to JUBILEE because the CORD Coalition Parties voted separately.

It is on the basis of the above that I intend to look at only 2 aspects of all the 5 JUBILEE aspirants who have so far declared interest in the Nairobi Governor's Position in the coming 2017 Elections.
These aspects are Competence and Suitability to the Job at hand and electability of each aspirant.

The 1st Jubilee aspirant I will look at is the current first time Dagorreti South Constituency MP,Hon. Dennis Waweru.
Being a Kikuyu,his biggest chance of being elected will depend on whether the CORD Coalition will go into the 2017 election as intact as it was in the last elections.
If for instance the Wiper Party opts to leave the Cord Coalition before 2017,a win for Waweru or any other Kikuyu JUBILEE candidate will not be a difficult feat to achieve. 
The Converse is also true,that it will be extremely difficult for Dennis Waweru or any other Kikuyu JUBILEE Candidate to win the Nairobi Governor's Position if at all the CORD Coalition goes to the next election as United as it was in the last election.

The only other thing that might affect Dennis Waweru's electability is his tendency to whip ethnic sentiments among the Kikuyu as his key campaign message. He has repeatedly indicated that he is seeking the Position of Governor so as to 'Protect the Property of the Kikuyu' from some perceived dangers which come when the Position of Nairobi County Governor is held by a Non-Kikuyu.
This kind of messaging is Continously isolating from Waweru's side all non-Kikuyu JUBILEE members and supporters in Nairobi County who are Not comfortable with such kind of reasoning and campaign messaging coming from Waweru's Team. This thus might end up affecting Waweru's Electability.
The fact that Dennis Waweru currently represents a Constituency that is the least Cosmopolitan out of the 17 Nairobi Constituencies and which is predominantly Kikuyu probably explains his insensitive campaign message that sounds exclusive to the Kikuyu and that leaves non-Kikuyu JUBILEE supporters feeling isolated.

As for Competence and Suitability,Dennis Waweru is well educated up to the Masters level and is an investment banker by Practice and thus is not expected to have Capacity issues in relation to managing the City.
What is of concern to many Nairobians and especially those he represents as MP in Dagorreti South is his management of the CDF during is tenure which is said not to be impressive. They opine that his CDF perfomance is much below the standards that were set by hon. Beth Mugo,the immidiate former MP who is known to be among the MP's with one of the best managed CDF's in the Country.

The other JUBILEE aspirant I will look at is Hon. Bishop Wanjiru who has also declared interest on the seat. It is the 2nd time she is doing so after her last bid was frustrated midway by her lack of the necessary academic qualifications to vie for the position. She has since graduated and is hence now qualified to vie for the Position. Having began a Christian Ministry that has grown to become international shows that she posseses some managerial acumen that might help her in running the City of Nairobi if elected.

Her electability,just like that of Waweru or any other Kikuyu Candidate will highly depend on whether the CORD Coalition goes to the next election United like last time. If it does,winning for Bishop Wanjiru just like for Waweru will be an uphill task.
The difference between Waweru and Wanjiru is that one's message is appealing to the Kikuyu's while the other is appealing to Cosmopolitan Nairobi respectively.
Bishop Wanjiru is clearly more at ease working with non-Kikuyu's than Waweru,perhaps due to the fact that Bishop Wanjiru has twice been elected on an ODM ticket,a Party where the Kikuyus are a very small minority thus her ability to cope,embrace and Work with non- Kikuyus.
Her church work might also have helped her in that aspect of tolerance to diversity.

The notion that a Non-Kikuyu running mate to any of the Kikuyu candidates will assist in wooing extra votes to JUBILEE is wrong and fallacious and is bound to fail like it did with Waititu when he picked on little known Achoki hoping to attract a sizeable chunk of the Kisii vote in Nairobi County which clearly did not happen leading to their losing to Kidero.

Hon. Johnson Sakaja is the 3rd Jubilee aspirant for Nairobi Governor that I critically examine using the parameters identified at the start,Competence and Suitability to the Job and electability. 
Sakaja's performance and eloquence as an MP and as TNA chairman has always given the image of a Competent young man.
He has so far successfully sponsored 2 youth focused bills which have already been signed into Law by the President.
Unfortunately for him,some doubts have emerged as to whether he completed his university studies and graduated. It is an issue that might work against him if it is not put to rest on time.

As for electability,Hon. Sakaja's Candidature is most likely to attract non-Kikuyu votes mostly from the Luhyia Community where he hails from which when added to the Kikuyu votes in the City will easily translate into a JUBILEE Victory.
His critics though point out to the fact that Sakaja might not have the necessary clout to influence the Luhyias in Nairobi to vote for JUBILEE.
They argue that Sakaja has never Politically identified himself as a Luhyia and neither has he ever made any previous attempt to reach out to them or strongly identify with any of the issues affecting the Luhyia Community.

Sonko the current Nairobi Senator on a JUBILEE ticket is the other aspirant to have declared interest in the Position of Nairobi Governor on a JUBILEE ticket.
He is said to be among the most electable as Nairobi Governor if the number of votes he garnered in the last elections and the voting patterns of the Kamba Community is anything to go by. This is because Sonko managed to get almost the entire Kamba Community to vote for him inspite of him being a JUBILEE Candidate,a factor that ended up giving him more votes than both RAO and UhuRuto in Nairobi County.
It is clear that CORD only managed to beat JUBILEE in Nairobi courtesy of the Kamba vote which will not be in CORD's favor in the event that Sonko gets the JUBILEE ticket for Nairobi Governor. 
Just like the Kamba voted for Sonko for the Senate Position under JUBILEE,they will most likely do the same for him in the race for Governor which when added to the populous Kikuyu vote will ensure Victory for him.
His critics though rightly point out that Sonko is not able to transfer the Kamba vote in Nairobi to vote for Uhuru besides voting for him as was the case in the last election.
They opine that Sonko is in JUBILEE only for himself and Not the team. The Mathare Constituency by-election is another oftenly quoted example of Sonko's inability to influence the Kamba vote in JUBILEE's favor.

His critics however Point out that he is not competent and suitable for the Job of Nairobi Governor,notwithstanding the fact that he recently graduated with a Business administration degree from KEMU.
His CDF performance as Makadara MP is nothing to write home about just like his tenure and performance as Nairobi Senator. He is on record as being among the least active in the Senate. He seems to lack the understanding of how to use his Position as Senator and the institution of the Senate to effectively play oversight over the County Govt of Nairobi. It is this lack of understanding that makes him opt for drama and theatrics to pass his Point.
Unfortunately,this strategy only helps in making news but not in playing effective oversight,representation or legislation,the 3 main reasons why Senators are elected.
His only known legitimate businesses are Matatu's and a Bar and Restaurant which critics insinuate is not enough to equip somebody with the management acumen and experience needed to effectively manage the City as Governor.
His critics opine that Sonko's shortcomings are made worse by the fact that he is a Political lone ranger who is not able to put together a team that can help in mitigating against his weaknesses.

The last aspirant I will look at is the latest to declare interest in the Seat of Nairobi Governor,Hon. Eugene Wamalwa who also happens to be the current Cabinet Secretary for Water in the Jubilee Govt.
Just like Sakaja,it is the 1st time Eugene Wamalwa will be trying out his hand in Nairobi County Politics.
He is a well Known name in Politics having been sired by one of the Pioneer Senators in independent Kenya and having the late former Vice President Kijana Wamalwa as an elder brother and thus will not have a problem introducing himself to Nairobians.
He has been the Party leader of the New Ford-K Party until his appointment as CS.
New Ford-K Party is a Party with an elected governor for Bungoma County,several elected MP's and numerous elected and Nominated MCA's in different County assemblies in the Country. This means that Eugene has got some Political Clout of his own.
It is this clout that JUBILEE will be banking on to attract a substantive number of Nairobi Luhyias to the JUBILEE side for both the Governor and the presidential vote,his Key difference with Sonko.
In the last election,Amani Coalition's Musalia Mudavadi managed more than 200K votes from Bungoma and TransNzoia Counties courtesy of the endorsement he got from Hon. Eugene Wamalwa.
Proponents of a Wamalwa Candidature for Nairobi Governor are of the view that this time those votes will be UhuRuto's especially with the incentive of Eugene Wamalwa getting the JUBILEE ticket for Nairobi Governor.
They are of the View that UhuRuto should use the Nairobi Governors position as a bait to bring on board a strategic partner who will also be of value to JUBILEE in their quest to win the National Presidential vote.
It is this kind of reasoning that is completely not in favor of a Kikuyu Candidate for Nairobi Governor as such a move will be of zero political value to UhuRuto in as far as bringing additional Presidential votes is Concerned.
This same argument makes the Eugene Wamalwa Candidature for Nairobi County on a JUBILEE ticket the most lucrative and valuable in terms of its Potential to bring JUBILEE Party additional votes and Probably extra elective Positions in the City.

As for Competence and Suitability,No one doubts Eugene Wamalwa's Capacity to deliver on the Job.
He is a Lawyer and has previously served as Cabinet Minister in former President Kibaki's Govt. He is also currently serving as a CS for Water and as such is well accustomed to undertaking and performing executive functions which is what the Position of Governor is all about. Proponents of the Wamalwa candidature for Nairobi Governor on a JUBILEE ticket are also quick to point out the fact that Eugene Wamalwa has so far not been implicated in any corruption scandal so far despite serving in different high profile Public Positions.

The above analysis of the various aspirants will hopefully be of help in identifying the right and Winning Candidate for Not only the JUBILEE Party but also for the great County of Nairobi.
The Challenge lies with us in JUBILEE to put together a Winning Formula headed by a credible leader who can win the confidence and support of a majority of Nairobians and who once elected will be able to make a difference in improving Public Service delivery in this great City of ours.

God Bless Nairobi.

God Bless Kenya.