Analysis: De-escalating Ukraine-Russia War Now through Biden's Phone Call
Desperate Russia has upped the ante in Ukraine by launching a series of missile strikes in Kyiv as an immediate retaliation to Ukraine's alleged bombing of the Crimean bridge- a proud 'pet project' of Putin that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland- essentially cutting the only viable route for transporting military provisions, personnel and hardware inside Ukraine. This latest blow to Moscow's logistic capability can change the dynamics on the ground in favor of Ukraine. That's why, it's to be expected that an angry, embarrassed, vengeful Putin would order a barrage of attacks to Kyiv. This fragile scenario could potentially go out of hand and degenerate into a tactical nuclear event if no urgent diplomatic outreach to Putin is made.
Diplomacy is still the best option. This protracted conflict has not been handled well diplomatically since day one- and even prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine which the US already knew beforehand, monitored by sophisticated satellite technology. With the sheer amount of reliable intel that Biden was receiving, America and the western alliance should be in a more advantageous position, at least 3-4 steps ahead of Putin. A more careful, nuanced strategy could have been crafted and a deeper diplomatic engagement should have been done by way of frequent visits, meetings, discussions, bringing Moscow's attention away from the military option. As reported by global media, the amount of diplomatic engagement was lacking. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and President Macron of France were the only ones visible talking to Putin in person, aside from the latter's engagement with his allies such as President Xi of China, BRICS Summit, not to mention the UN Security Council and General Assembly meetings that his top diplomats like Sergey Lavrov joined. Most engagements and support (financial and otherwise) were given to President Zelensky of Ukraine. There were regular visits to Kyiv by allies from NATO member states and celebrities. However, Biden's stand-offish demeanor and incendiary media pronouncements have veered Putin away from the negotiating table, pushing him closer to Beijing and Iran whose drone technology is being deployed now to strike Ukraine.
Biden and Pentagon articulating and amplifying the prospect of an impending Russian invasion repeatedly in mainstream media during the time leading up to the actual invasion, has really put Putin off guard, compelling him to walk his talk of invading Ukraine which he was not rushing to do, as he was only using the massive troop buildup along Russia's border with Ukraine purportedly for Psy-War purpose to test the real mettle of US and NATO in protecting Ukraine. This psychological tactic is very much within the Russian military doctrine. They had employed this playbook when they tested the waters before invading Georgia and Crimea before back in 2008 and 2014 respectively. Obama's delayed and irresolute response to Russia's military adventure in Crimea effectively set the stage for its annexation. Looks like history repeats itself now with Biden at the helm.
Had President Biden showed more leadership strength by positioning and encouraging all NATO leaders to actively mediate between Ukraine and Russia, creating psychological, political, diplomatic, physical buffer that would've dis-incentivized and slowed the invasion through lengthy negotiation- there wouldn't have been any shot fired. Putin's position was crystal: he wanted Ukraine not to formally gravitate towards NATO by becoming a member.
He sees the prospect of a Ukraine NATO membership as an existential threat to Russia and its geo-political interests. Putin has showed some signs early on that he was not rushing to invade Ukraine and has only contrived a politico-military strategy to create a sequence of clever events and conditions that would lead to accomplishing Russia's expansionist objectives with less military force (they knew they could not afford it, finance and hardware-wise] . Biden's premature revelation of an imminent invasion might have clearly disrupted Putin's schedule, triggering an overreaction that fast tracked the invasion that was not meant to happen at that time yet. Putin could have set it up waiting for the US -NATO to make major announcements for giving significant concessions in the matter of Ukraine's neutrality and non-NATO membership. Russia considers Ukraine a protective buffer zone to keep Western alliance at bay. The specter of a Russian invasion could easily have been just used to strengthened Moscow's bargaining position. This move is consistent with Putin's playbook which could've not been possible under Trump.
That's the reason why their tactics to achieve their purpose is mostly psychological-political accompanied by a display of an image of a strong military deliberately-shaped by propaganda like in taking Crimea with no robust military response from Ukraine and surgical, hit-and-run approach in taking control of Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern region. The threat to invade Ukraine started 8 years ago during the Obama administration and amassing troops in the border started in February last year.
It was a slow, calculated move that was supposedly meant only for optics or show. In addition to being irked by Biden's words such as when he called him "a war criminal" and when he said, in no uncertain terms, that he has to go- Putin's calculus also changed when he witnessed the US Afghanistan exit fiasco, exposing Biden's weaknesses plus a series of confirmatory intelligence reports (albeit faulty) from his people on the ground in Ukraine that the country would not be able to stand against Russia, and that an invasion would be timely- painting a favorable scenario for Russia. His intel added that, "it would be a quick operation and they would be welcomed with open arms by the Ukrainian people."
Essentially, Biden's perceived weakness has emboldened Putin to go ahead with the invasion- with China watching at the sidelines, taking careful notes, emboldened with regards to its plan to follow suit by invading Taiwan when Russia's invasion succeeded. Putin's success would be an easy template for Beijing.
Hence, diplomacy has not been fully-explored and utilized yet from the get go. Biden's immediate call to Putin now could instantly lower the temperature of the war. An urgent armistice between Russia and Ukraine mediated by US is certainly a good idea.
Let peace reign in Ukraine through proper diplomacy.
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