An Analysis of the Current Russia and Ukraine (and Global) Conflict

So, what is this conflict between Russia and Ukraine and where does NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) fit into this?

Key points to note –

·???????NATO also called as (North Atlantic Alliance) is an intergovernmental military alliance made up of 27 European countries, 2 North American countries and 1 Eurasian country. It was formed in 1949, after Work War II (more details about NATO - https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_139339.htm)

·???????Ukraine is not (yet) a member of NATO but may want to join the NATO in near future.

·???????The Minsk Protocol is an agreement which sought to end war in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It was written in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, with mediation by the leaders of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format. After extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, the agreement was signed by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of any status, by the then heads of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. The agreement, which followed multiple previous attempts to stop the fighting in the Donbas, aimed to implement an immediate ceasefire. It failed to stop fighting in Donbas and was thus followed with a new package of measures, called Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015 (source: Wikipedia).

?One thing is for sure – Every side involved in this conflict has a lot to lose, along with rest of the world community, if this conflict turns to war. The reason – We are talking about several large nuclear powers involved in this conflict. That is scary in itself.

With that being said, there is ego on both sides of the table, that needs to be kept aside, while peace negotiations are in progress.

As far as negotiations is concerned, any and all legitimate concerns that exists on both sides needs to be focus of the negotiations. This will ensure that peace prevails.

The current situation is that Russia has been amassing its troops and advanced military equipment around Ukraine, while NATO countries have been very quick to dispatch (sell?) arms to Ukraine. In short, this is not a win-win situation at all, given the tactical and strategic nuclear capabilities of the countries involved.

?The Situation -

Russia’s View - NATO (with primary support from USA) has been steadily expanding its influence across Eastern Europe, as per its principles. This has been one of the major pain points of Russia; and Russia has regularly highlighted this point. If Ukraine joins NATO, then Russia, as a big brother of the erstwhile USSR, feels that USA is on its door, and nothing would stop the big-brother attitude of USA from enforcing its interference in Russia. This also boils down to the ability of the big NATO powers to sell more weapons to the smaller NATO countries.

NATO’s View – As per its tenets, NATO is keen to support (its format of) democracy in the former Soviet countries, if and only if, they support the West’s interests. This enables the big NATO countries to sell arms to these East European countries and keep the pressure on Russia. USA would like to see a depleted Russia, while Russia (major part of erstwhile Soviet Union) is keen to get back on its feet, like a wounded tiger would, and show the world that they're down, but not out. The breaking up of Soviet Union, at the end of the cold war, is still fresh in Russia's mind. Added to this, Russia in the last decade or so has rebuilt its economy and is a much stable country as of now.

(image source: Aljazzera)

The other thing to note is that residents of Donetsk and Luhansk, primarily supported by Russia, can create major problems for Ukraine, as Russia has its supporters who are ready to separate from Ukraine (read Minsk Agreements above). This is another on-going challenge for Ukraine. Crimea has already been annexed by Russia in 2014.

Germany has much to lose too, if this war goes ahead as the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will come to an end, even before it has commenced operations. USA has been warning that it will interfere in the gas pipeline and make sure it does not go ahead as planned. Much of Europe will suffer if this war goes ahead if the pipeline is shelved. There are huge sums of money already invested in this pipeline and it would be a major blow to both Russia and Europe economically. European countries could freeze during the on-going winter as they would suffer immensely with lack of power and heating.

(image source: euractiv)

USA has gotten to work to secure emergency gas supplies to these countries from Australia, Japan, and Qatar. However, what happens on the ground may be completely different. It's not easy to replace approximately 30-40% gas supply to Europe from Russia at the drop of a hat.

?So, where does India stand?

India is a major world player that has the capability to play a part in the peace process. India has very good working relationships with both Russia and NATO countries (including USA). However, India seems to be following its principle of non-alignment. The point to note is that India is currently facing its own challenges posed by China in the North and Pakistan in the East. The world is witness to what happened during August 2020 - while India was busy trying to contain the Covid virus spread, China’s PLA deceitfully tried to occupy India’s Ladakh region in the North. While they were unsuccessful in their attempt and were pushed back by India, there was loss of lives (soldiers) on both sides. This mis-adventure by PLA was after their failed attempt to occupy Dokhlam region in the N-W part of India a few years ago. Back then, India had successfully stopped PLA's bullying tactics.

(image source: Wion)

Adding weight to the current conflict is the bilateral meeting that China and Russia had at the start of the current Winter Olympics. No one knows for sure what was discussed during this meeting; however, China has come out in support of Russia. China's conflict in the South China sea (the nine dash lines claimed by China – a.k.a the South China Sea conflict) is a completely different topic in itself, that needs a write-up on its own. However, with the current Russia-Ukraine conflict reaching peak levels, China is perhaps hoping that the world will move its focus away from China. In fact, China has more troops built up against India, towards India's North, but NATO countries don’t seem to be as bothered by this. Is it because India is a military superpower, and the West has more to lose with Ukraine than with India? Maybe or maybe not.

(image source: c3india)

One thing is for sure, the tectonic plates of the geo-political powers is shifting, and this means that the world needs to be prepared for changes in case the war goes ahead. In the last decade or so, we have seen the economy of several countries multiply, thereby giving these countries increased capacity to buy more advanced and precision weapons; and, that makes any conflict around the world more deadly.

Coming to the key point of the article, we're currently unsure if Russia will invade Ukraine as it would lead to massive (unwanted) deaths on both sides and increase the number of refugees across Europe. So far, the Normandy Format of talks has not really yielded the results that the world was hoping for. Neither has talks between the powers of NATO and Russia. Now, Ukraine has sent out a message to Russia for talks. The world is on the edge.

Having said the above, peace talks might be the only way forward as the world, after being battered by Covid for the last 2 years, cannot afford another major economic crisis. The poorer countries will suffer massively by this war as the world economy is sure to take a massive hit. No one wants this war.

Thinking out loud, can Ukraine become a buffer zone (friendly) state between Russia and the West (NATO) to avoid similar conflicts in future?? Perhaps.

Whoever brings peace to the region could be recommended for the Nobel peace prize :)

(image source: flags international)

Open to hear your views on my current analysis.

?- Dhananjaya Naronikar

(An Australian-Indian who takes keen interest in global geo-politics)