ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Meat Imports Extend 15-Month YoY Decline Streak, Reaching 534,675 mt
China’s total meat imports, including variety meats in October 2024 were recorded at 534,675 metric tonnes (m)t, based on the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.
Imports?dipped by just 1.1% m-o-m (-5,868 mt), falling for the second month, as firmer winter demand offset any significant declines. ?
Volumes were also supported by its major supplier Brazil’s beef exports hitting record highs, but its poultry exports to China have since been halted since late July. Higher local slaughter rates into the cooler season have brought about more meat into the domestic market, weighing down on import demand.
On the buying front, importers tend to build up inventories as the mercury drops toward the year’s end. Higher seasonal meat consumption is the key driver, as consumers opt for hearty meals like stews, hotpots, and barbecues.
The return of festive gatherings, such as year-end office celebrations and traditional holidays like the Winter Solstice Festival and Lunar New Year, typically boosts demand in the dining-out and supermarket sectors.
On an annual basis, imports sank 3.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) (-17,325 mt), marking the 15th consecutive month of decline. In-month figures reached a 5-year low, as economic headwinds challenge China’s position as the world’s largest meat importer.
Demand in China has been driven by its vast population of over 1.41 billion, where urbanization has increased the need for higher-quality proteins. Domestic production constraints, such as African Swine Fever (ASF) impacting China’s primary protein source, pork, have further heightened reliance on imports.
Year-to-date (YTD), cumulative meat imports have softened by 2.9% (-15,783 mt), totalling 4.37 million mt, compared to the same period last year.
Zooming into the Chinese beef sector, the market continued to draw strong inflows from South America, particularly from Brazil and Argentina. In contrast, safeguard tariffs issues put a lid on Australian’s import appetite, which saw the mechanism triggered as of 6th October.?? Volumes from New Zealand saw a modest uplift amid higher buying interest, despite low production.
Everyday dishes such as beef noodle soup, braised beef stew, and Western favourites like steak and ribs are popular celebratory options during this time, driving demand for beef imports.
Comprehensive data on October 2024 beef imports will be released by 20th November, providing deeper insights into the beef sector’s market trends as the year heads into its final quarter.
领英推荐
China’s September 2024 beef imports was last recorded at 218,199 mt, slumping 5.7% m-o-m. September 2024’s in-month tonnage was also the lowest since 2020, underscoring the ongoing market challenges faced by the world’s largest beef importer.
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The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China released a combined figure for the first two months of the year. The chart above shows an averaged figure representing the monthly data individually.
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