Analysis of China-US Flight Operations and Market Trends

China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world. Flights between China and the United States serve as a vital link for economic, cultural, and other exchanges between the two countries. These flights are directly impacted by the dynamic developments in Sino-US relations.

VariFlight utilizes two sets of data to compare the operational changes of Chinese and American airlines pre and post-epidemic.

The sample time period spans from April 8 to April 14, 2019, and April 8 to April 14, 2024.

In the one-week snapshot of 2019, the total number of routes operated by all airlines in China and the United States experienced a significant decrease. China Southern reduced its routes from 13 to 10, showing the smallest change among all airlines.

Air China leads in operating the most flights between China and the United States, totaling 141 flights. China Eastern Airlines and United Airlines follow closely in second and third place. In the 2024 sample, Air China remains the top operator with 30 flights, while United Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines share the second and third positions. Notably, Sichuan Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Xiamen Airlines have seen the highest flight volume recovery, exceeding 30%.

Regarding the number of operational routes, Hainan Airlines, which once operated 33 China-US routes in the 2019 sample, experienced a sharp decline to only 4 routes in 2024. This shift is attributed to HNA’s previous focus on operating more Sino-US routes in second-tier domestic cities.

Pre-epidemic, approximately 80% of China-US routes were operated by a single airline. Post-epidemic, this proportion surged to 90%. Airlines are now more inclined to maintain only their most profitable routes rather than expanding into new markets.

Despite reducing investments in flights and operational routes post-epidemic, the nine Chinese and American airlines serving China-US routes have strategically retained their advantageous routes, ensuring a continued presence in the market. This retention strategy reflects a cautious approach amidst the uncertain recovery of the Sino-US route market, influenced by various political and economic factors.

In this context, the airlines’ consolidation strategy appears pragmatic and secure, safeguarding their economic interests and overall development.

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