An analysis of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

ASERO expresses our sincerest condolences to the family of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and to the people of Japan for their tragic loss.

On July 8, 2022, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot from behind by a lone gunman while giving an election campaign speech in the southern city of Nara, east of Osaka.?He was airlifted to hospital and pronounced dead at 17:03 local time.?Although no longer Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe remained among the most influential leaders in Japan and his assassination has sent shock waves throughout the world.?

The armed assailant has been identified as 41-year-old Tetsuya Yamagami who was arrested at the scene and admitted to shooting Abe using a homemade gun.?

In the immediate aftermath of the attack, it became very clear that there were gaping holes in the security plan and deployment, currently under review by the Nara prefectural police.?

Due to the strict gun laws in place and highly uncommon gun violence in Japan, Security Police officers (SPs) are trained to protect primarily against physical threats.?Dignitaries in Japan typically travel with modest security details which are supplemented by local police.?

When he was shot, Abe was standing at an intersection outside of a train station.?He was facing a crowd of hundreds while, at the same time, buses and vans passed behind him on the road where the assailant appeared.?Photos circulated in the aftermath of the shooting show that the suspect was able to reach within a few meters of Abe without any sort of checks or barriers.?Furthermore, video footage of the attack appears to show that while there was security deployed around Abe, there was no one facing backward where the people and vehicles were moving freely.?

According to reports, no one, including security personnel on site, understood what was happening until the second shot was fired.?Based on video footage, the first shot appeared to have missed Abe.?Had security reacted to the first gunshot, the outcome of this attack could have been different.?We know that in dignitary protection, one shot can make all the difference.?

It unfortunately must be said that had a sufficient number of security personnel been deployed, and properly deployed, it may have deterred or foiled the attack.?

There is much to be learned from this tragic and unnecessary death and many takeaways which should be put into practice on a global scale.?Among the most impactful lessons which may be put into place include performing routine threat assessments for dignitaries and specialized assessments for all public events in which high-profile persons will be in attendance and reevaluating the threat criteria which will help determine what you are trying to protect against, taking into consideration the environment, evolving threats and modus operandi and adversary capabilities.

It is also necessary to ensure that sufficient security personnel are deployed on-site comprised of both specialized security officers complemented by local police, who are able to utilize the familiarity of their everyday working environments toward the early detection of potential threats.?Furthermore, a visible security presence has been known to deter potential assailants.?

In the same way that 1994 assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, a case study from which we can draw many parallels, served as a watershed event for how Israel carries out event security and dignitary protection, so too will this tragic attack change forever how dignitaries are protected not only in Japan, we imagine.?This attack should serve as a warning for many countries believing that strict gun laws can protect them and their leadership from similar attacks and will have far reaching consequences for protective security practices throughout the world.

ASERO Worldwide, Ltd. is an expert in the fields of protective security, large event security and dignitary protection.?ASERO lists among its team former senior ranking security practitioners and regulators who were responsible for conceptualizing and implementing Israel’s policies and best practices for protective security both within Israel and for Israeli assets and dignitaries abroad.?To learn more about ASERO and to read more insights and recommendations about this case study, among others, please visit our website at www.asero.com.?