ANALYSIS: 10 years of major currencies v/s USD, including MUR.
Chinese Yuan vs Dollar
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 08:19 UTC
CNY/USD close: 0.148981; low: 0.139296, Sep 2019; high: 0.165549, Jan 2015.
Ratio High/Low = 0.165549/0.139296 = 1.18846
Actual % decrease from High = (0.148981 - 0.165549)/0.165549 =??-10.01%
Relative % current position in Range = (0.148981 - 0.139296)/(0.165549 – 0.139296) = 0.009685/ 0.026253 = 37%.
REMARKS:
Yuan has not been too volatile as compared to the US dollar, which is the reserve currency and is stable. China has a strong economy. +ve Trade Balance. Not trade deficit economy. The economy with the strongest GDP in 2017 for the first time, now US is back to no 1 economy as from 2018 and China in second place. China has been known to peg its currency against the dollar after the Chinese Financial Crisis 1994. Therefore from 1995 to 2005, it pegged the dollar in a range 8.2760-8.2800 against the dollar. After 2005, the yuan was compared to a basket of other foreign currencies for a fairer market value. The Yuan appreciated to 1 dollar is equivalent to 7 Yuans, on average, 0.14286 on chart. Chart maximum value: 1 dollar is equivalent to 6 Yuans; lowest value: 7.18 Yuans.
Euro v/s Dollar
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 08:43 UTC
EUR/USD close: 1.04783; low: 1.03792, Dec 2016, Jun 2022; high: 1.39303, Mar 2015
Ratio High/Low = 1.39303/1.03792 = 1.34214
Actual % decrease from High = (1.04783 - 1.39303)/ 1.39303=??-24.78%
Relative % current position in Range = (1.04783 - 1.03792)/( 1.39303– 1.03792) = 2.79%.
REMARKS:
Euro vs Dollar is trending down to parity. Recently War in Ukraine. Will Ukraine move to EU? Maybe Russia is an overpowering nation and has bullied its weaker neighbour. Euro has been weak over the last ten years as no measures from ECB to calm high inflation have proved to be efficient. Europe and UK had been in shambles as could be seen by job figures over the last ten years. Slowly the unemployment problem has seemed to be resolved both in EU and UK. Job cuts are very popular in UK. In EU, 1 in 3 youths or 1 in 5 in general were unemployed in many countries, especially Mediterranean countries like Portugal, Spain, Greece, Italy and France. Recession hit hard on the World in 2009 starting with US and then worldwide. However it was worse in EU (especially in EU countries previously mentioned)?and UK.
On a positive note, Europe has countries like Germany which is the second positive trade balance country in the world, due to its manufacturing powerhouse. Germany has a very good economy and it is placed at 4th in the world whereas France is 7th and Italy is 8th. So the EU is a powerful economic zone.
Pound Sterling vs USD
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 09:13 UTC
GBP/USD close: 1.22259; low: 1.14926, Mar 2020; high: 1.71602, Jul 2014
Ratio High/Low = 1.71602/1.14926= 1.49315
Actual % decrease from High = (1.22259 - 1.71602)/ 1.71602=??-28.75%
Relative % current position in Range = (1.22259 - 1.14926)/( 1.71602– 1.14926) = 12.94%.
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REMARKS:
Euro vs Dollar is trending down to parity. GBPUSD follows suit but GBP seems to hold stronger vs USD than EUR, if we compare the two low values. UK economy seems a bit more resilient, maybe due to more measures taken at higher level. Brexit?
The Pound Sterling has always been amongst the strongest currencies as compared to USD as the UK is the country that started Globalisation through Imperialism. We are living through the vision of what Britain had thought out for us. God save the Queen!
Canadian Dollar vs US Dollar
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 10:09 UTC
CAD/USD close: 0.765742; low: 0.685868, Jan 2016; high: 1.03257, Sep 12
Ratio High/Low = 1.03257/0.685868= 1.505494
Actual % decrease from High = (0.765742- 1.03257)/ 1.03257=??-25.84%
Relative % current position in Range = (0.765742 - 0.685868)/( 1.03257 – 0.685868) = 23.04%
REMARKS:
Canada is the country on top of the US geographically. It is well known for its immigration friendly state and has a good economy, 9th worldwide. Usually the Canadian dollar is known to have a proportional relationship with the US dollar as they are both neighbouring countries. So when US dollar goes up, usually Canadian dollar also goes up.
As we can see, the US dollar seems to have appreciated much faster than the Canadian dollar over the last ten years. Therefore we can expect the CAD to appreciate likewise in the future.
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 10:32 UTC
AUD/USD close: 0.696284; low: 0.574092, Mar 20; high: 1.05799, Dec 12
Ratio High/Low = 1.05799/0.574092= 1.842893
Actual % decrease from High = (0.696284- 1.05799)/ 1.05799=??-34.19%
Relative % current position in Range = (0.696284 - 0.574092)/( 1.05799– 0.574092) = 25.25%
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REMARKS:
Australia is known to have a strong economy, 13th worldwide. The AUDUSD pair seems to have the biggest ratio of High/Low value so far. It is similar and be comparable to CADUSD, and we can notice that CAD has a lower high and higher low than AUD, hence making the CADUSD tighter. This means that AUD has gone lower than CAD vs the USD, and it has gone higher too in the past. This can be due to the reporting of data and how they affect the markets, creating higher top and lower values. The AUDUSD may be more volatile due to less trading volumes.
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Japanese Yen vs US Dollar
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 10:56 UTC
JPY/USD close: 0.00739537; low: 0.00738189, Jun 22; high: 0.0128827, Sep 12
Ratio High/Low = 0.0128827/0.00738189 = 1.745176
Actual % decrease from High = (0.00739537 - 0.0128827)/ 0.0128827=??-42.59%
Relative % current position in Range = (0.00739537 - 0.00738189)/( 0.0128827– 0.00738189) = 0.25%
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REMARKS:
Japanese Yen is usually considered a Master Currency. There are many traders and many big banks from Japan. The Japanese economy is a very successful, 3rd worldwide, and mature economy and Japan is a country that is technologically advanced in many fields such as robotics, AI, manufacturing, etc. Japan exports a lot of tech, trends and also vehicles. This is why the JPYUSD is followed. At the moment, the Yen is weak as compared to the USD. One USD can get 135 Yen. Usually some levels are 100, 110, 114, 120 and 125. So we are seeing Yen at a very low, lowest level, 135. This may be due to geopolitical tensions with North Korea. North Korea has not stopped its nuclear programme and is showing a very strong and brave fa?ade as a communist country to the rest of the world. This low Yen is very good for countries who are importing Japanese products, such as Mauritius. This will boost Japanese exports figures. Trading JPYUSD seems like a good option if there is good volume and a trend.
领英推荐
Liquidity, in other words, volumes traded is very important when looking at a Forex Pair. EURUSD, JPYUSD,GBPUSD are the three most traded currency pairs as shown on the pie chart above. EURUSD – 28%, USDJPY – 13% and GBPUSD – 11%.?
Indian Rupee vs US Dollar
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 14:45 UTC
INR/USD close: 0.0128289; low: 0.0127606, Jun 22; high: 0.0193289, Oct 12
Ratio High/Low = 0.0193289/0.0127606 = 1.514733
Actual % decrease from High = (0.0128289 - 0.0193289)/ 0.0193289=??-33.63%
Relative % current position in Range = (0.0128289- 0.0127606)/( 0.0193289– 0.0127606) = 1.04%
REMARKS:
India is part of the subcontinent of Asia. It is one of the biggest Asian economies, and is ranked 6th in the world. India stock market Nifty has performed well over the past two decades with investments coming into the IT sector. India is home to many multi-billionnaires. It is a country of dreams where people of varied cultures and backgrounds live together and anyone can become a slumdog millionaire through his hard work and perseverence. Of course the country is developing and many issues are being addressed to, e.g, treatment towards women has greatly improved, but there are still few cases of brutality towards women. The road infrastructure is well developed but it is not fully developed and in some areas, still work in progress, even in urban areas. The chart for the ten years looks like a negative exponential. The INR has fallen by quite a lot as compared to the USD. The main reason is although both economies are doing well, the US is reacting well to positive macroeconomic data, e.g, like employment data and this is driving the US dollar up.?The US has known 3 presidents since 2010, see below:
#[A]??????NAME(BIRTH–DEATH)??TERM[14]???????????PARTY[B][15]
46??????????Joe Biden(b. 1942)??????????January 20, 2021–Incumbent?????Democratic
45??????????Donald Trump(b. 1946)?January 20, 2017–January 20, 2021??????????Republican
44??????????Barack Obama(b. 1961)?January 20, 2009–January 20, 2017??????????Democratic
Barack Obama was a successful president, with his push for OBAMA-CARE. He showed off a smiling enthusiastic President of mixed black and white descendances. This was a first in the story of the United States of America. And with Barrack Obama, it was always a “Yes, we can!”
After the unwritten tradition held by presidents of retiring after two terms, two mandates with Barrack Obama, and USA was doing well. USA chose a Republican President this time. Frank, sometimes brutally honest, Donald Trump was known to be a businessman. Maybe that was the reason that part of USA wanted Trump as President, it is because of his experience as an experienced businessman. His niche: Real Estate. In 2017, Donald Trump was elected. During that year, China GDP overtook that of USA and China became the 1st GDP rank on the planet. The Chinese obviously celebrated with their show of military prowess. They celebrated with the launch of its first domestically built aircraft carrier Nimitz by smashing a bottle of champagne on its prow. They were showing their Supersonic Drones, along with their aircrafts, tanks, bombs, missiles on TV. China was getting more powerful. They were building artificial islands illegally in the China South Seas to reclaim territory and also act as bases. What were the Chinese upto? The USA reciprocated with warnings. In the end, the USA decided to impose taxes on China Aluminium so that the US Aluminium can get a domestic advantage. Fair trade/ unfair trade. China decided to retaliate on a series of taxes for the US. Also President Trump was the first President to visit enemy state North Korea in a friendly but desperate attempt to bring peace in that region, between North Korea and South Korea first and also for the North Korean to stop their missiles testings which were humbling the Japanese. Peace is on a thread in that geopolitical area. Many people applauded president Trump. But many people also ridiculed. Effort is effort. He put in good intentions. To date, North Korea is still continuing its nuclear programme. Also President Trump had announced his resolution to bring the troops back home. Everyone who is decently educated knows that the USA is on a war economy, since World War 1. Iraq, Afghanistan, Arab Uprising, Tunisia, even Syria (“the big nation”) and now, maybe the crown jewel of Islam, Iran. President Trump showed that he was in tune with the Rest of the World. PEACE, no WAR! The arms industry is too big in the USA, a trillion dollar industry. <<WASHINGTON — The world spends nearly $3 trillion a year on arms, and the United States drives the bulk of the globe’s weapons trade — about 79%, according to figures compiled by the U.S. State Department.>> God Bless America! President Trump had taken some serious actions and we can tell that the US dollar was going up. The USD kept rising against its counterparts.
In 2021, President Trump lost to Joe Biden, and the Democrats are back in power. President Biden said that he will continue and pursue America’s activities in the Middle East. Still, USA kept churning positive macroeconomic data. And the USD kept appreciating itself as compared to its other counterparts. Even though there was Covid-19, the US economy kept expanding and economic growth was healthy. Note that Covid-19 originated in Wuhan, China. The Chinese was terribly affected and the Chinese had promised to pay back to partner countries losses to businesses. The US despite having the most number of casualties kept thriving.
As explained before, this is thus as Unemployment figures kept improving as well as NFP figures were better than expected. The NFP data had been positive and in good range for most of the time. At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, there had been a big issue as everywhere else in the World; however that was quickly addressed.
So, India was booming over the last ten years and the USA has shown tremendous economic growth to stay at the 1st place in world ranking by GDP. Therefore the USD is strong as compared to India, 6th in GDP world ranking and its rupee. On top, this is great news for India’s manufacturing and BPO booming business. They would increase in revenue as they are getting more INR for their services and goods in USD. This is how the world works. It is top to bottom world but can be analysed bottom to up.
The US is the Reserve Currency. People will keep buying the currency to buy goods such as Oil and Gas. Hence it keeps appreciating.
India has a lot to do to become a developed country. It is certainly a BRICS country and is developing at a fast rate. It needs to invest in Infrastructure projects and Agriculture more. It is already doing well. Same as JPY, INR is at its lowest vs USD. However maybe, INR can learn from JPY and CNY, and plan ahead for the future, with USD being the benchmark, GBP being the old head and EUR the new superpower. On a positive note, this is good for investments and further economic growth. We should look at the past and learn from it, live in the present and provide for the future. The future is the result of what you do now by keeping in mind things of the past. After that India will have to decide to be great again.
Mauritian Rupee vs US Dollar
Jun 22, 2012, 00:00 UTC - Jun 19, 2022, 16:35 UTC
MUR/USD close: 0.0220753; low: 0.022067, Apr 22; high: 0.0341064, Mar 14
Ratio High/Low = 0.0341064/0.022067= 1.545584
Actual % decrease from High = (0.0220753- 0.0341064)/ 0.0341064=??-35.28%
Relative % current position in Range = (0.0220753- 0.022067)/( 0.0341064– 0.022067) = 0.07%
REMARKS:
The MUR is usually directly proportional to the INR. Many mauritians import all types of goods, like textiles such as fashionwear from India. There is a good trading bond between the two countries. As we can see, the two charts INRUSD and MURUSD are fairly similar and are negative exponential type. The Mauritian economy is similar to the Indian economy in that it has grown over the last ten years. In the case of the Mauritian economy, apart from Covid-19 pandemic period, the economy grew healthily year on year. Even the taxes levied by the government which is used for running the administration, the forces and the legislative, even the amount of taxes govt receives grows year on year. The country does well.
If we look at the SEMDEX, the stock exchange of the island has grown year on year as volumes of shares traded has increased greatly. The main companies always do well. And it is rare that a reknowned company makes losses. It makes sense as the economy is always growing year on year.
<< SEM's transformative momentum took a new turn in 2010 when the Exchange undertook a fundamental shift of its strategic orientation, embarking with the internationalisation of its operational and regulatory framework. The outcome of this strategic shift has been quite compelling. 200+ securities are listed on SEM, cutting across different asset-classes and issued by a diverse group of local, African and international issuers. SEM's market capitalisation to GDP ratio is 90%+, which makes it the highest in Africa (excluding South Africa). SEM today boasts a streamlined listing regime catering for the specialist nature and requirements of a variety of asset classes. These cover equity products (ordinary/preference shares), debt products (fixed income/floating rate debt/specialist debt products and Eurobonds), ETFs, ETNs, DRs and Structured Products. The above products are issued and listed by domestic Issuers, International Issuers, Investment entities, Specialist companies (including GBCs), Mineral & Exploration Companies and Public sector issuers.>>
The reason why the Mauritian Rupee has depreciated against the US dollar over the last ten years are similar to those given for the Indian Rupee.
The Dollar which is the Reserve Currency grew stronger year on year and appreciated for many reasons, political and good news driven by data.
Same as for India, this is good for the Mauritian economy in terms of foreign investments and for the Mauritian manufacturing, textiles and other industries such as financial industries. We are looking to improve our exports figures.
Other Charts to look into at later time:
For example, look at the Singapore currency (SGD) and Hong Kong (HKD) how tight they are against the US Dollar, especially the HKD. The PEG: HKD still on peg (7.75 to 7.85) since 1983, SGD same as CNY used to be on peg. The Singapore Monetary Authority, same as Chinese Central Bank look closely over their currency.
We will look into the other remaining charts later and try reach some explanations and conclusions. This work for a later time.
South African RAND (ZAR)
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Russian Ruble (RUB)
Swedish Krona (SEK)
Singapore Dollar (SGD)
Hong Kong Dollar (HKD)