Analyses: Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft Program

“Today, Bombardier and GDMS-C employees, as well as Canadians, political and industry leaders, and suppliers, who have very vocally supported Canadian talent, are all equally disappointed that their Canadian Government has decided to award a generational contract without an open and fair competition, and without fully evaluating its home-grown industry’s multi-mission aircraft capabilities.”

On 30th of November, we read Bombardier Statement on Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft Project upon Canada and the US reaching a deal to 16 P-8A Poseidon Multi-Mission Aircraft procurement to replace CP-140 Aurora Fleet for 7.7 Billion USD: 5.9 Billion USD for P-8A Poseidon aircraft and related equipment, the remaining 1.8 Billion USD will be used for infrastructure, simulators and weapons/ordnance.

Despite the multiple conversations between Bombardier and Canadian Government, several campaigns that lobbied a wider range of policymakers, and Bombardier’s call for an “open and fair” competition, Canadian Government did not take a step back from its decision.

In order to understand the facts of the Canadian entire process and road map, from the decision to procure the CP-140 Aurora in the 1970s to the selection of the new aircraft (P-8A Poseidon), whole process must be analyzed.

THE WORKHORSE CP-140 AURORA AND MODERNIZATION PLAN

CP-140 Aurora is a long-range Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA), with current definition a Multi-Mission Aircraft (MMA). It was originally purchased in 1980 for anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Those are considered among the best capabilities in the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), therefore CP-140 Aurora fleet is one of the workhorses of the RCAF.

When Canada needed an MPA during 1970s, Lockheed offered P-3 Orion, a land-based, four-engine, turboprop aircraft developed on the L-188 Electra commercial airliner platform with various Mission Sensors integrated on board and delivered to the US Navy in the 1960s. Over the years, several P-3 variants and updates have been developed, most notably in its electronics packages. Currently, 21 operators in 17 countries are still using these aircraft for maritime patrol, reconnaissance, anti-surface warfare and anti-submarine warfare missions. More than 750 P-3s have been built. In 1991, Lockheed shut down its production lines for P-3 Orion. Starting in 2012, The US Navy Airborne Patrol Squadron VP-40 began the replacement of Lockheed P-3C Orion with Boeing P-8A Poseidon. Last P-3C was retired in May 2020.

However, Canada did not follow its Allies and requested P-3 Poseidon as it was. Instead, they chose the P-3 air frame and modified it with a more capable mission suit of the Lockheed S-3 Viking. 18 CP-140 Aurora was built and delivered in 1980.

As done for P-3 Orion Fleet in US and other countries, The Canada has initiated to modernize CP-140 Aurora Fleet in 1998. The Aurora Incremental Modernization Project (AIMP) involves 23 individual projects to acquire, integrate and install new mission systems and sensors onto the CP-140. This project is being executed in a phased approach with four blocks. All obsolete systems, navigation system, communication system including radios, mission system components were upgraded. Last Block (IV) is currently in the implementation phase (full operational capability in 2024).

Besides, The Aurora Structural Life Extension Project (ASLEP) which involved replacing aircraft's outer wings, center wing lower section, horizontal stabilizers and all fatigue life-limited structures with new production components, aimed to extend the aircrafts' service life by 15,000 flight hours or roughly to 2030 timeframe.

The total cost for AIMP and ASLEP combined is 1.983 billion USD (2019 prices). As per The Industrial and Regional Benefits (IRB) Policy and The Industrial and Technological Benefits (ITB) Policy of Canada, Canadian Industry leaders CAe, CMC, GD Mission Systems Canada, Lockheed Martin Canada, MDA, IMP, Thales Canada gained experience during modernization activities.

CP-140 AURORA REPLACEMENT PLAN

In 2022, a RCAF team flying a modernized CP-140 Aurora won an anti-submarine warfare competition and exercise against U.S. Navy, Royal Australian Air Force, Indian Navy and the Japanese and Korean militaries which have newer aircrafts such as P-8 Poseidon or Kawasaki P-1. It was a definite example of the success of AIMP.

But maintaining an old Aircraft is not easy and depends on many factors, often costly. Structural repair or modifications will become increasingly more frequent as the age of the aircraft increases. CP-140 Aurora airframe is considered as close to the effective end of its lifespan. While rising maintenance costs, aircraft availability would drop. Therefore, it is an unavoidable situation that sooner or later replacement and transition must be planned.

Canada did so. Canada clearly stated inside “2017 Canada’s Defence Policy” document (page 65) that CP-140 Aurora will be replaced in the early 2030s with the Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft with an anticipated funding range of around 5 billion CAD.

CANADIAN GOVERNMENT’S APPROACH

In line with government procurement policies and 2017 Defence Policy, Canada initially planned to open a competition to replace the CP-140 Auroras starting from 2024 and conclude the tender in 2027. Accordingly, within the scope of Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft (CMMA) Project, a Request for Information (RFI) was released in February 2022 intending to benefit from industry experience and explore the potential for participation of industry in providing best capability for the RCAF. Canada received 23 responses, including from Bombardier and Boeing.

Initially the government committed to an open bid, but in late 2022 the process was changed. On March 27th, the Canadian Government released a statement that the Boeing P-8A Poseidon was the sole aircraft on the market that meets RCAF’s requirements, with an official statement:

"Following engagements with industry and Canada’s closest allies, the government has determined that the P-8A Poseidon is the only currently available aircraft that meets all of the CMMA operational requirements, namely anti-submarine warfare and C4ISR. This platform is a proven capability that is operated by several of Canada’s defence partners including all of its Five Eyes allies—the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand—as well as Norway and South Korea. Germany has also recently purchased this platform."

In line with the decision, Canada made a formal request with a Letter of Request (LOR) through US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to the US in March 2023 for a procurement of "up to 16 P-8A Poseidon aircraft and associated equipment". Green light came in June 2023 for this request. Boeing warned Canadian Government as P-8A Poseidon production can be stopped in 2025 if no new orders are received, hence pointing out a 30 November 2023 as the expiration date for the validity of the proposal.

Despite Bombardier’s, some policy maker’s and local industries complaints, Canadian Government has finalized a government-to-government agreement with the US Government for the acquisition of up to 16 P-8A Poseidon aircraft for the RCAF (14 MMA will be procured, with options for up 2). The first of the Boeing P-8A is scheduled for delivery in 2026; all others will be delivered by 2027.

According to Boeing, Canada has used this "opportunity" to "capitalize on an off-the-shelf airplane. Canadian Defence Minister said a sense of urgency driven by security threats around the globe is behind the federal government's decision to sole-source a deal worth more than $10 billion to buy a new fleet of military surveillance planes. The Defence Minister also added that Boeing has agreed to invest $5.4 billion over 10 years in the Canadian economy.

Canadian Government clearly stated that Bombardier's proposal is a "developmental option" which the federal government isn't considering because it wants a proven model that Allies are using already.

BOMBARDIER’S EFFORTS

Bombardier partnered with the Aurora’s Mission System developer, General Dynamics Mission Systems, to provide a competing alternative -a militarized version of its Global Express 6500 aircraft- to the P-8A Poseidon and responded to RFI.

Bombardier and General Dynamics said their pitch would keep jobs in Canada; the aircraft would be largely built in Toronto and then head to Montreal for final assembly. General Dynamics Canada pointed out that If Government go and move that work outside of Canada through a sole-source competition, some of those jobs will actually disappear. And added that the program will actually generate thousands of jobs in Canada as a result of it being awarded and built in Canada.

Bombardier called for an open, transparent and fair competition to Canadian Government and Boeing since March 2023, but it did not make change on the process. Bombardier executive Vice President claimed that Boeing's plane comes from a 1970s design however it’s aircraft — the Global 6500 — would contain cutting-edge technology. He also added that Global 6500 will burn 30 per cent less fuel than P-8A Poseidon, will fly higher, faster, and will stay longer on target.

Boeing’s Director of International Business Development for Mobility and Surveillance Aircraft replied that there is no need a competition because Boeing's P-8A Poseidon is the only aircraft that meets the requirements.

Finally, on 30th of November, we read Bombardier Statement on Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft Project upon Canada and the US reaching a deal to 16 P-8A Poseidon Multi-Mission Aircraft procurement.

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED

• Military procurement, especially such type of special Programs, are carried out on a “knife edge” of international relations, industrialization considerations, meeting end-user requirements, schedule pressures, budget constraints, availability/capacity issues and many others. It is questionable whether the Canadian government has considered all factors before the decision.
• Governments around the world rely on government procurement policies that support their National Industries. In another words, governments must be fully aware that its procurement policies and investment decisions have significant implications for the national industrial and technology base. Indigenous System Development must be considered a priority to stimulate economic activity and support industrial development, if you do not have a valid reason. Before moving to a sole source contract, the full range of capabilities of own aerospace industry must be investigated.
• Over the years, Canadian Governments have spent hundreds of millions of dollars developing a domestic industry. Besides, Canadian Industry has gained enough experience in ASW, ASuW and C4ISR, during CP-140 Aurora modernization. Now, Canadian Government has created a risk for loosing this experience. Past experiences clearly showed that Governments must secure its own industries capabilities and knowledge, and program requirements must be evaluated together with national capabilities pool.
• As a result of Canadian Government decision, it would be difficult for Bombardier to explain to other potential customers why its own government did not consider Bombardier solution for such a “special” military contract. Therefore, it is not easy to sell a system found "unacceptable" in your own country.
• Sharing non-recurring costs is a good opportunity when industrial participation to the Program and attaining key technologies or capabilities are clearly defined. Boeing’s and Canadian Government’s explanations present that the companies who are already working with Boeing will benefit from Offset commitment. What Canada will gain “new” from this procurement is not so clear.
• Lobbying activities are valuable in influencing government decisions. From 2020 onwards, Boeing lobbied the Canadian government, presenting the opportunity to acquire the last P-8 Poseidons on their production line which will be stopped in 2025 if no new orders are received. Boeing’s efforts seem successful when Canadian Government’s decision is concerned.
• Using the available platforms manufactured within the country must be the key issue for all Governments. This can be selected from military or civil type; narrow-body or wide-body or business jet; turboprop or turbofan aircraft and customized for the needs.

• If Canada was serious about developing a MPA or MMA, the Project should have been started at least a decade ago. US’s P-8A Poseidon decision is a good example. The studies for a P-3 Orion replacement were started in 1980s, finalized in 2004 with the selection of Boeing’s P-8A Poseidon MMA solution. Besides, this type of multi-billion Dolar competitions usually lasts several years to conclude. So, if there is no doubt that Canadian Experts and Decision Makers are aware of these facts, it seems that the "Development Option" might have never been on the table since the beginning of this Program, since it is impossible to catch the schedule for 2030.
• Canada’s Government’s approach to Industrialization is questionable if its Allies’ competitions are concerned. Within the scope of P-3 replacement project, BAe Systems proposal with Nimrod MRA4 withdrew from the competition, recognizing a lack of production partner based in the US. This is a correct approach needs to be followed by all Governments to secure industrialization.
• This is not the first time Bombardier and Boeing have faced each other. In 2016, Bombardier took a firm order from Delta Air Lines for 75 C-100 (plus an option for 50). Just a year later, claiming the order as a threat to the US industry, Boeing filed a petition against Bombardier for having sold the aircrafts at approximately $24 million each, below their production cost of $33 million. Although, US Department of Commerce decided a total 292% anti-dumping duty for Bombardier, The Canadian Government objected at the World Trade Organization against US, and finally, US International Trade Commission cancelled the mentioned duties. This conflict ended with losing business and forced Bombardier to make joint venture company “Airbus Canada Limited Partnership” with Airbus and Bombardier C-Series was named as Airbus A220 family. Today, Bombardier is not in the Program and Canada has only 25% share. Airbus benefited from this, acquired the off-the-shelf design at a very low price and opened a Final Assembly Line in US. This time, the Canadian Government left aside the previous conflict with Boeing and itself caused Bombardier to miss this opportunity with the decision it made in the CMMA Program.

• Without getting into a full and detailed aircraft comparison, it's quite clear that the Boeing 737-800ERX (Modified to P-8A Poseidon) and Bombardier Global Express 6500 are totally different aircrafts. Leaving aside the aircraft types, Boeing 737-800ERX nearly triple in payload capacity with larger cabin height, width and length. This provides more capacity for mission system integration. Although Global Express 6500 has a better ferry range specification (after MMA modification, due drag rise, naturally range will reduce), P-8A Poseidon provides 1200 Nm range with 4-hour time-on-station during ASW Mission profile. No doubt, P-8A Poseidon is one-of-the best MMA aircraft, delivered more than 160 to six customers around the world, selected by Korea and Germany also. However, “the sole aircraft on the market that meets RCAF’s requirements” statement still needs to be clarified. Since no RFP exists, it is clear that current RFI requirements (including 13 High Level Mandatory Requirements) can easily be satisfied by Bombardier’s Global Express 6500 solution which questions the Government’s decision.
• Many Countries are starting to disaggregate Missions/Roles from platforms (especially Special Mission Aircrafts) for several reasons (cost, maintainability, complexity, operational availability, operational security etc.). Therefore, instead of one big platform to do all Missions/Roles, networking/teaming (improved TDL, SATCOM, etc.) allows several separate platforms (including manned-unmanned teaming options) to perform mission cooperatively. There are unmanned solutions like MQ-9B Sea Guardian which have a capability to drop sonobuoys and capable of acoustic processing. Governments must consider alternate solutions taking into account the changes and developments in the Operational Field and Operational Concepts, during the recent years.