#AMRG Presents: Summary of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) - Airport Shuttles or City Taxis?
David Ison PhD
Advanced Air Mobility Researcher, Aviation Planner, Academic Publishing Expert, Pilot, Writer, and Educator, Aviation Expert Witness
What?
While Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has garnered significant attention to date, uncertainty persists regarding the specific types of commercial services (e.g., airport shuttles or city taxis) that will be introduced first. Also of interest is the price point deemed affordable by travelers. This article estimates passengers' valuation of travel time savings for various UAM services, utilizing advanced discrete choice modeling based on data gathered from a large-scale survey campaign in the Milan metropolitan region (Italy). Results indicate a 44% to 57% more robust readiness to pay for UAM services to and from airports than travel within a metropolitan region. Furthermore, the desire to pay for business travel exceeds that for other purposes, ranging from 31% to 44%, suggesting that such clientele are the logical early-entry customers to be sought by UAM operators.
Who?
Pierluigi Coppola, Francesco De Fabiis, & Fulvio Silvestri - Politecnico di Milano, Department of Mechanical Engineering
Where?
The full report can be found HERE .
Summary
The global urban population has grown significantly, from 750 million in 1950 to 4.2 billion in 2018, and is projected to reach 6.7 billion by 2050. This growth presents challenges to cities, services, and the mobility system, including increased traffic congestion, travel times, and air pollution. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has gained popularity, with advances in sensors, communication systems, and electric batteries crucial for developing electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Manufacturers like Joby Aviation, Airbus, Volocopter, and Archer are competing to bring their eVTOLs to market to conduct commercial services.
An important consideration when introducing any new type of service is to explore consumer sensitivities to service costs. This study investigated passengers' value of travel time savings for UAM services, comparing airport shuttles and city taxis. The results could be generalized to other metropolitan contexts with similar multimodal transport systems and urban fabrics.
The literature on UAM has accelerated recently, with industry announcements about eVTOL flying certification processes. Technology is the driving force behind this new mobility concept, and electric propulsion technology is identified as a pillar for reliable VTOL vehicles. Two primary UAM service clusters are air taxi and airport shuttle services. Air taxi services operate in metropolitan urban areas or connect different cities, while airport shuttle services connect city centers to airports, providing travelers access and egress air connections.
The study focused on understanding users' sentiments about future UAM services through a questionnaire design, data collection, and travelers' behavior modeling. To ensure a level of knowledge base among participants, recruited individuals were shown a short video describing UAM services and travel experience. A questionnaire including sixteen questions based on socio-economic data and travel habits was used to collect the primary data for analysis. Interviewees were presented with six-choice situations based on their typical trip duration, number of people they travel with, and car availability.
The demand for air taxis and public transport in Milan, Italy, was analyzed. Eight designs were created based on trip durations, travel alone or with others, and the availability of a car as an enabler for the car modal alternative. The time and cost levels for car, taxi, and public transport modal alternatives varied around the existing characteristics of the Milan area transport system. The in-vehicle times and costs were tailored around estimated values obtained by assuming eVTOL technical specifications and unit service fares. The data collection campaign lasted 3 months, collecting 2,145 interviews for modeling estimation. The modeling framework relies on discrete mode choice models under random utility theory.
The study investigated the behavior of travelers based on their spatial trip patterns, specifically from/to airports and metropolitan journeys. The researchers used machine learning (ML) and random parameters to simulate the population of time and cost coefficient ratios, using inferential statistics to determine underlying distribution properties. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted for each identified demand segment, combining ML-estimated in-vehicle time and monetary cost parameters for four modal alternatives, two spatial trip patterns, and two trip purposes. Results showed behavioral differences among travelers based on the spatial pattern of their trips.
Here are the median non-business affiliated costs outlined for each travel mode described in the study:
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Note: Business trip costs (not shown here) ranged from 30 to 56% higher.
Passengers prefered UAM services over cars and public transport but prefer traditional taxis for trips accessing or egressing airports.
Travelers were more sensitive to cost for metropolitan journeys, except for public transport and taxis.
Income played a significant role in shaping traveler preferences for UAM, with travelers with a gross annual income exceeding €120,000 more inclined to choose UAM over other transport modes.
Gender differences also influence UAM preferences, with females showing less inclination towards UAM for metropolitan trips than males.
The study revealed that users value UAM airport shuttle services more than metropolitan air taxis, with approximately 40% higher time savings.
The analysis shows that airport shuttle services can yield a more favorable financial result compared to air city taxis, making them the preferred choice for the initial launch of UAM. UAM fare policies could be tailored to market segments, offering differentiated mobility services tailored to each traveler category. UAM travel time savings is key to making the service a competitive alternative to ground-based taxis for airport shuttles. This could lead to a significant modal shift from ground transit to UAM services.
Takeaways
This study investigated the value of travel time savings (VoTT) for UAM airport shuttle and city-taxi services. Results suggest that UAM airport shuttle services could be the most financially sustainable type of operation, especially during the initial phase when new aerial mobility services are expected to have high fares. Users' willingness to pay for UAM services was 8% higher than for traditional ground taxis.
Comments
It really isn't a surprise that people SAY they would prefer to use the faster, cooler UAM service. I'd garner people will normally choose a more attractive option when the question is THEORETICAL. There are many latent variables that come into play when faced with the ACTUAL, real-life decision. So, I'd take the preference indicated in the results of this study with a few grains of salt. Also, the differences among modal costs presented seem a bit on the low side. Moreover, the willingness to pay an 8% premium over traditional transport doesn't sound very financially sustainable. So if Uber costs me $60, I would be "willing" to pay only $65 to go via air? I'm guessing that won't pay UAM operators' bills. Although the uncertainties around the whole AAM paradigm are slowly melting away, there are still too many to know for sure how things will play out in the long game.
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1 周Its really very informative post.....i would like to share my latest research report updates on UAM Industry @ https://lnkd.in/gFUc_z_C
Its electrifying!
3 周One always has to ask who are the customers now for airtaxis (private air charter) or commuter aircarrier services (airport airshuttles and regional air services) and will it really change even if its half the fare of a helicopter or fixed wing aircraft respectively. Airtaxis are for HNWIs, Airport air shuttles for business travellers, but Regional airservices tend to be the same demographic as airlines.
https://youtu.be/WFxvf1du4Ms?feature=shared Both in the beginning... I always advocate for more transport options; the industry will shake out as the public settles on its preferred safety tradeoffs, schedule frequency (freedom), cost, and real-world mobility and accessibility. Most transport service seekers' goals are less friction, more convenience, and lower costs. The below is a bit dated, and there is a version somewhere in which Scott Galloway riffs on Professor Arun Sundararajan's comments and compares choosing a life partner to an AV service. It won't be about the most attractive or endearing, but, indeed, about the one you trust the most. Please take a look at Professor Arun Sundararajan's comments beginning at 3:22.
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3 周The optimist in me hopes for options, the realist in believes AAM will end up transporting cargo from major airports to regional delivery centers. Possibly seeing use in the personal/business space in a Part 91 type operating environment. They will have to prove safer than helicopters for that role. Cost will always weigh in, and as governments invest more and more into the sector, they will eventually expect to see some returns in use taxes and fees. Optimistic affordability forecasts at this point are based on not paying the inevitable infrastructure fees. AAM is in a race against autonomous vehicles in tunnels. Autonomous vehicles using tunnels or skyways have much less to prove in safety, and far less regulation to navigate. It is possible that we see ground based options with multiple destinations in urban areas running completely on demand. Will shared AAM shuttle rides require security? Anyone interested in AAM should be fully behind JSX at this point and pushing hard on their representatives. If a shared ride will require TSA, go ahead and stick a fork in any time savings, if a shared ride does not have TSA will passengers feel safe with strangers sitting on lithium?