America's Choice: What to look for as the polls close

The Americans of Charlotte Street Partners give their take.?

Back in July when the general election campaign finally ended, we heard all you Brits sighing with relief that a long and divisive pre-election period has come to an end. Meanwhile we Americans just laughed and said, “hold my beer”.?

When it comes to long and divisive campaigns, we are a nation of experts.??

There are a lot of unknowns as we approach the close of the polls – who will win, when will we know who wins? But there are two things we know for certain – everyone will be relieved the campaign is over, and half the country will be deeply unhappy with the result.???

As we await the results of this globally watched race, here’s seven things we’ll be watching as the polls close.?

Pennsylvania is the 'keystone', but Southeastern swing states could be early indicators

With each state in charge of its own election rules, there will be variation in how ballots are counted and when we get results. ?

Pennsylvania is rightly considered the most pivotal of all states, and it will most likely decide who wins the White House. But the east coast swing states of North Carolina and Georgia will be among the first to close the polls and, thanks to changes in how they count their vote, both are expected to report their results quickly.??

If Trump wins both states, we won’t learn anything particularly insightful early on. However, if Harris manages to win either, it could be an early indicator of trouble for the Republicans. The most recent polling has shown both are still within her grasp, so keep your eyes on what happens in these southeastern states.??

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Mail-in ballots, protracted timelines and legal action

In years gone by, Americans received projected results the night of or morning after Election Day. But those days appear to have passed. If swing states end up being as close as the current polling indicates, mail-in ballots could be decisive. But with varying state election laws, some of these ballots will be accepted days after the polls close, drawing out the timeline for decisive results.??

In the ultimate battleground state of Pennsylvania, election officials are prohibited from even starting to count mail-in ballots until Election Day itself. Meanwhile, there are already reports of overseas ballots being challenged in the state. Expect the lawyers to be involved in the ratification of the vote.??

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If Harris wins, women will power her victory

Is this the ultimate battle of the sexes? There is a 34-point gender gap among voters, with women supporting Harris and men supporting Trump. If Harris wins, it will be largely powered by a surge in turnout among women.?

This is also the first presidential election to take place after the Supreme Court overturned the law protecting abortion rights in the US, and subsequent ballot initiatives have shown abortion to be a winning issue for Democrats, even in heavily Republican states.??

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What about that Iowa poll?

A widely discussed poll released Sunday showed a surprising three-point Harris lead in Iowa , but we think it should be taken with caution. Despite high regard for the pollster, Iowa has not voted for a Democratic president since Barack Obama in 2012, and neither candidate has made much investment in the state during this election cycle.??

But with that said, the Iowa poll could be a sign that parts of the Midwest – including neighbouring swing states like Wisconsin – may be more open to shifting than they previously appeared. ?

A Harris win in Iowa would be extra padding or it could be part of a more creative victory pathway if she loses Pennsylvania. For Trump, an Iowa win won’t say much on its own, but a loss would be more detrimental.??

On polling analysis more broadly, both NBC News and polling guru Nate Silver have raised the issue of ‘herding’ and the lack of outlier polls in this election cycle. A truly 50-50 race should, theoretically, produce more variation in the data due to random chance, but that is not being reflected in the vast majority of what we’re seeing, and this may be a weighting choice by pollsters as they hedge their bets and follow the herd.?

If this is the case, whatever precipitates after election day could be quite?different than what the polls are telling us. This could be a challenging narrative if the result isn’t as close as currently predicted – we might hear that the polls can’t be trusted or worse, that this is a clear sign of voter fraud.??

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Expect disputed results, legal challenges and other chaos

The prospect of political violence still haunts the US, with flashbacks of the January 6 attack on the Capitol still fresh in minds. Extremist groups backing Trump have signalled?their intent to organise a revolt if he loses . Many ballot counting centres in the critical swing states will be equipped with bullet-proof glass and other high security measures as election workers tally the votes.?

In the absence of an early projection, both candidates will be motivated to steer the narrative in their favour. More nefariously, Trump has already made clear his intent to challenge any losing result and has alluded to an unspecified “little secret” between him and the Speaker of the House that would help Republicans win this week.

As states go to certify their respective results, there should be little doubt that Trump will attempt to circumvent the system to claim a legitimate victory if things don’t go his way.?

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Harris has put up a fight that Biden could not

For anxious Democrats hoping to put an end to the spectre of a second Trump presidency, many may question whether Harris was the appropriate conduit to victory. If she does win, she will be lauded for strategically exploiting Trump’s weaknesses and capitalising on a revitalised energy among Democrats. If she loses, some from the party may critique her with 20/20 hindsight vision.?

Furthermore, a Harris loss in Pennsylvania would surely stoke criticism of her choice for running mate, given she passed over the state's popular governor, Josh Shapiro, and his accompanying bi-partisan creds for the more wildcard pick of Minnesota governor Tim Walz.

But whether Harris is ultimately able to stick the landing, the gruelling nature of her campaign these past few months?has further reinforced the notion that Biden would not have been up to the task.??

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Pay attention to the Congressional races too

Finally, there’s an often-overlooked fact that Americans will also be voting in some critical races for House and Senate seats, with several Democrats potentially on the verge of losing, which would tip the balance of the legislative branch in favour of Republicans.??

For a Harris presidency, this could mean the difference between a productive term passing her agenda through Congress or a complete roadblock. A Trump presidency could be further enabled by a Republican-controlled branch, something he was never afforded in his first term and which helped stymie his worst impulses.?

The Senate races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Montana will be ones to watch. If Democrats lose these seats, Americans could be in for a very different looking Congress.?

Will Torness, client manager, Charlotte Street Partners

Anna Dickens , associate partner, Charlotte Street Partners