The American Involution

This article is the text version of the live lecture by Mr. Lu Qiyuan in the lecture hall of South-South University of Global University on November 7, 2020. It has been approved by the speaker and welcome to reprint. 

Lu Qiyuan, a well-known financial writer, chairman of the board of directors of Ward International Management Consulting Co., Ltd., director and general manager of Huacai Group of the Ministry of Finance; Yan Xiaohui, Ph.D. from Lingnan University, chairman of the Guorenxiang Social Enterprise Alliance, and co-founder of global universities. 

Economic changes in the post-Trump era

Moderator: Yan Xiaohui

Good evening, friends, this is the Global University Nannan University lecture hall. I am the host of this evening, Yan Xiaohui. It is a great honor for us to invite Mr. Lu Qiyuan to share on the live broadcast tonight. Mr. Lu is a famous financial writer, director and general manager of Hong Kong Huacai Group under the Ministry of Finance, and also serves as a management and consultant for many well-known companies. Mr. Lu has devoted himself to researching financial issues for more than 30 years, and many of the results have been used as policy recommendations. The most famous theories are the "General Fiscal Theory" and "General Taxation Theory", which is the theory of super rent. Mr. Lu closely integrates macro-political and economic theories with micro-social and economic phenomena. Reading Mr. Lu’s articles can always bring us unexpected shocks.

The topic Mr. Lu shared tonight is "Economic Changes in the Post-Trump Era". This topic was actually decided two weeks ago. When you see this topic, you might think that Mr. Lu has already prejudged the election in the United States. Of course, the election so far has not resulted in results. The chaos we have seen may be It will last for a while. But we know that at home, some people look forward to Trump's re-election, while others hope that Biden wins. Those who hope Trump’s re-election believe that the continuation of conservatism in the United States is conducive to China’s development of independent innovation; those who hope that Biden will win, believe that continuing to maintain a liberalized global order will help China to further promote globalization; and they are also happy to see the two fight intensified American society is torn apart and believes that it can fight for strategic space for China. Pre-judgment is only pre-judgment, and everyone can have different judgments in different positions and positions. However, Mr. Lu’s sharing tonight is not to make a pre-judgment, nor is it to analyze some basis and reason for pre-judgment. Rather, in the past four years, Trump’s governance and changes in the global economic and political landscape have led to an unprecedented fiscal crisis in the United States, and a huge credit crisis in the global US dollar. The consequences of this crisis, whether it is Trump’s re-election or Biden’s succession, are facts that are already happening and will lead to major changes in the global economy. So in this sense, the "post-Trump era" Mr. Lu talked about has little to do with this election. Because the crisis has already occurred, no matter who comes to power, they must face the consequences that have already occurred. As the leading country of globalization, the crisis of the United States itself is also a global crisis. As part of its participation in globalization, China is inevitably involved and has to bear certain costs and pressures. On this level, the fiscal crisis in the United States and the credit crisis in the U.S. dollar are also crises facing China, as well as a crisis in the renminbi. We also have to think about and respond to it and do something that can be done. And from another perspective, the experience of the bottom society in the United States is connected to the bottom of the world. Politicians are fighting with gods, but the vested interest groups or elite groups under the capitalist system, in order to pursue and safeguard their own interests, bring The widespread global political and financial imbalances are the main source of real impact on people’s livelihood and polarization.

Next, we invite Mr. Lu to enter the lecture tonight and share his research and thinking on these topics with you. Welcome teacher Lu!

Speaker: Lu Qiyuan

Thank you Xiaohui. The lecture tonight is a gift—a gift to teachers and students from Jianzhi, Dr. Xiaohui and Lingnan University. Because of the Spring Festival this year, I fell ill after returning to Hong Kong and had to be isolated. The teachers and classmates of Lingnan University are so nice! After decoction of the medicine, cooked rice and some supplies were delivered to help me through the most difficult time. Thank you very much! There is no return, you can only use such a lecture, try to make this lecture to a higher standard.

Today we are talking about the post-Trump era. In fact, what Xiaohui said just now is what we mean. We want to use Trump to talk about a drastic change in the United States with the US election. Views on China issues. Tonight I want to talk about this from four aspects. The first question is the nature of the American problem, the second topic is how to define the Trump era, and the third topic is the trend of the post-Trump era. . Finally, we want to talk about the path of China's development.

1. The nature of the US problem

We first enter the first link. In fact, we have been discussing this matter for a while. During the Spring Festival this year, we were still discussing our understanding of American issues at a small-scale seminar. Due to the Sino-US trade war and the technology war, Sino-US relations are very tight, so Chinese scholars, or Chinese experts, or Chinese people who handle Sino-US relations are in a state of tension. . Therefore, there may be some feelings of being trapped in the view of the US issue, that is, there is a feeling of the person involved, and sometimes there is a feeling of a weak side, so the nature of the US issue may not be so well grasped. At this time of today’s lecture, we re-examine the nature of the US problem, which is also the fundamental reason for Trump’s emergence or the Trump era.

When discussing American issues, we cannot do without American economists and American contemporary economics. Recently I have been reading a book, Joseph Stiglitz (University Professor). It was published in Taiwan, and the title of the book was changed to the "Declaration of Reform." In fact, it is a reflection on American issues, that is, a reflection on contemporary issues in the United States, and a response to the new capitalism that is dissatisfied with generations. The second one after Tie is a more systematic and profound thinking about contemporary capitalism. Why should we talk about contemporary American economists and American economics? The words below may be a little bit bigger, but this may be true. That is, I am very disappointed with contemporary American economists, including Stiglitz, who have won the Nobel Prize in Economics. I also feel very disappointed with contemporary American economics, because American The academic works of economists and Americans do not explain the economic problems of the United States well, and of course they do not solve the political problems of the United States well. There are reasons for this.

Maybe some friends have read "Freiburg" written by me. In fact, the inheritance of American economics mainly originated from the Austrian school. It was from 1840 to 1940 that the German Historical School and the Austrian School conducted a century-old controversy. During and after the Second World War, important German economists went to the United States, and the representative figures were basically the Austrian School. Then the Austrian school and the historical school are completely different, and even opposed in some respects. When I wrote "Across Freiburg", I mainly introduced the German historical school. The Austrian school is an important source of thought that constitutes the situation in the United States today. It is from the perspective of the Austrian school that there may be problems in two places. Economics has problems with the direction of research. The significance of this issue to China is very significant. One direction is the interpretation of morality. The Austrian school has always placed "freedom" in a very high position in moral interpretation. Because of freedom, it advocates democracy, which is different from the perspective of the German historical school. Freedom is not ranked first in Chinese morality. Chinese morality talks about human beings. We talk about "no destiny and great compassion." We talk about human beings, which is more similar to the German historical school. The German historical school inherited the Christian Protestant ethics and partly absorbed Marx's theory to form the German historical school. Where is the difference in moral interpretation? If you think from the perspective of the German historical school, it will consider seeking a balance between freedom and democracy, and the subjectivity of the state and the subjectivity of the people. Here we should mention Ludwig Wilhelm Erhard (Ludwig Wilhelm Erhard), the last head of the German historical school, and later the second chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany or West Germany. He was the first Minister of the Interior and Minister of Finance when West Germany was founded. He was also one of the few German Jews who did not escape, and lived safely until the founding of Federal Germany. The Federal Republic of Germany did not accept the Americans’ suggestions on the West German economy, especially the suggestions on the system. Therefore, West Germany established a social market economy. This is the thinking of the German historical school.

The path taken by the United States is different from that taken by Germany. They have accepted some of the ideas of the Austrian school, whether it is from classical liberalism to neoliberalism, they have taken such a path, and this path itself has historical shortcomings. Or it is a structural shortcoming, which has led to the natural emergence of the US economy as it is today. A series of problems naturally arise, two directional problems. The first is moral interpretation, which puts freedom in the first position in moral theory. This is inappropriate; the second problem is about the new economy. I’m very shocked by the explanation of this, that is, contemporary American economists’ understanding of the economy, especially the understanding of the new economy, is not in place. I don’t find this strange, because contemporary economists, including Chinese economists, do lack historical depth and philosophical depth. I sum up the essence of the American problem in two words-mergers. Speaking of mergers, Chinese scholars are very familiar with it, because the history of China's agricultural civilization is a land merger-even mergers and repeated mergers. A historical process of reincarnation. If it is explained in economics, then in the age of agricultural society, land is the main carrier of capital, and land annexation is a process in which society’s benefits or gains are relatively concentrated, or even a natural process. The carrier of capital entering industrial society is no longer land, but property rights, the property rights of industry and commerce, industrial and commercial capital, or industrial capital. It still has the transfer of land equalization to mergers, but this merger has a new term called— -monopoly. This monopoly is sometimes very powerful, so Lenin defined imperialism as capitalism in the monopoly stage and imperialism.

What are the characteristics of the new economy? Usually we define 2015 as the first year of blockchain. We believe that after 2015, human society has entered the era of digital economy. In the era of digital economy, the carrier of capital is no longer land, bricks, or industrial and commercial property rights, but data, data, and data capital. Mergers will still occur. This is a very important feature and essence of the US economic problem. If you observe the top ten listed companies in the United States, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook, all are related to the digital economy. If you still don’t understand the situation of digital capital mergers, then we can see what happened recently, that is, Ant Financial and Ant’s listing, which is a very important manifestation of the development of digital capital in China. Why stop it? Because it is indeed in the process of rapid mergers, that is, in another space. If we understand the data and digital space as real estate, they are racing to encircle, rapidly forming monopolies and mergers, and forming in the process of mergers. It is very scary and even super profit! I'll talk about Ant Financial in detail in a moment. It has positive significance, and in such a special period of economic development, including land mergers, it has positive significance. If there is no land merger, the operational efficiency of land will not be so high. Concentration has the advantages of concentration. Especially when agricultural civilization is transferred to industrial civilization, large-scale land mergers will form huge capital, which is conducive to opening factories and industrialization. Create the process of industrialization. Its disadvantage is that the self-employed farmers have disappeared, become tenant farmers and even serfs.

We have all seen the problems of large-scale monopoly and mergers in industrial society, and we have all seen new problems in the digital economy era. Contemporary economists may not be sensitive to this matter and have not yet made a systematic explanation. So before we start this class, let’s talk about the structural issues. I am not satisfied with contemporary American economists and economics. Of course, we also need our economists and economics. Make some comments. We may be vigilant in two aspects. The first is the explanation of morality in economics-freedom or democracy based on freedom is not the first morality! It lacks the unfavorable benevolence of all human strata as a whole, and does not need fate. The same kind of compassion is unified, and we lack the attention to the overall destiny of mankind. The Austrian School, they pride themselves on the people of the world, they once killed their motherland, they destroyed their motherland, the Austro-Hungarian Empire no longer exists, because they are world people, they are nobles, they don’t care about the bottom, they Classes with specific interests are highly concerned about the freedom of specific groups of people. In ancient China, the concept of freedom was not mentioned, because the concept of freedom is a theory of relativity. That is, the freedom of some people may be the unfreedom of other people. The freedom of cars may be the freedom of pedestrians. The emergence of zebra crossings restricts the freedom of cars. Freedom is a relative moralization of freedom. , May cause economics to get into trouble, which is also some important reasons for the problems in the United States.

In fact, in the face of the coronavirus, many scholars and experts should conduct profound reflections. Because I think the coronavirus is an enlightenment of the reincarnation of heaven, an enlightenment and inspiration from nature to mankind, but what did you do wrong? One is a moral issue, and the other is a question of the development of productive forces for the new economy. I personally think that American economists and economics are outdated and backward, and have not kept up with the new era. The United States has never been able to solve the problem of American capital constraints after World War II, so it has the phenomenon we see today, which is the rapid merger in the era of digital capital. This situation is inevitable related to the hollowing of its industrial capital some time ago. The hollowing of industrial capital and financial capital swallowing industrial capital and transferring to digital capital is a big historical process. For this great historical process, it really requires a high degree of philosophy and a deep historical understanding.

Not only did the Americans fail to do this thing well, the possibility of failing to do this thing also included Germany and Japan. In 19 years I felt that I couldn't understand why countries like Germany and Japan fell behind and lagging behind in the new economic era, so in 19 years I visited these two countries to investigate Germany and Japan. In fact, I was shocked in my heart, because it is not simply a backwardness in technology, it is still a backwardness in thinking in a very large sense, and a kind of retardation or slowness in academics. In this direction, Americans are better than Germans and Japanese. First of all, it possesses advanced communication technology, that is, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States used communication technology for civilian purposes, and the Internet began to appear. Mobile communications have advanced by leaps and bounds, which brought the physical or material conditions of a new economy. The United States is in a leading position in technology, so it has a priority in this regard. It has also caused the US financial capital to break away from industrial capital and quickly enter this most advanced field. Because in this field, I will talk about it in a moment-as a capital carrier, its capacity is very large, even to an infinite extent. So I will talk about the US dollar, currency, and initiative in a while, and I will talk about the meaning of this asset.

As for China, since China does not have the burden of industrial and commercial capital in the industrial era, China is more likely to accept the new economy. In addition, China is a relatively young country, and younger countries are more sensitive to new things, that is, we are more fashionable and modern. At the same time, since our country does not have the burden of the industrial age, our acceptance of information technology is much faster, and our acceptance of the Internet is very fast, although we are the same as Germany and Japan in the Internet field. Because the United States has a high degree of monopoly in the Internet field, Americans also have limitations in thinking about the direction of technological development. When the Internet changes from fixed Internet to mobile Internet, in fact, communication technology is developing rapidly at this time. Changes are also taking place, and at this time China's communication technology is advancing by leaps and bounds, so China is a later intruder.

I sum up the new economy as two aspects. The first is the industrialization of information, that is, those companies that are associated with information technology. Industries such as Huawei, ZTE, SMIC, and BOE are all in the process of information industrialization. Now, China’s industrial ecology is mainly talking about this. . The second is industrial informatization. What does industrial informatization mean? It is to use information technology to transform traditional industries. China is a newcomer to the development of industry and commerce. Therefore, our institutional constraints are rarely as large as those in Germany and Japan. At the same time, we have not put individual freedom to such a high level. We have taken the lead in industrial informatization. We use information technology to transform traditional industries. For example, food delivery is Meituan, Ping An Good Doctor is medical care, ZhongAn Online is the financial and insurance industry, and Ant Financial is an important node in the transformation of the financial industry with information technology.

My evaluation of Ant Financial and Jack Ma is very high. Because Ma Yun, the traditional financial industry in China, did not criticize them wrong. They are pawnshop thinking. They eat interest margins under a high degree of monopoly, and monopolize all financial resources to eat interest margins, so that half of the profits of Chinese listed companies are composed of financial institutions. They don't have labor, they just eat the interest rate differential, and they obtain excess profits through institutional design. Because of this, they are unwilling to do business with small and micro enterprises, because the credit of small and micro enterprises is determined, that is, the assessment is the same as that of large enterprises, and even the cost is the same, so they are not interested. This poses a major problem for China’s economic development. After the transformation of information technology, big data can be used to solve the credit evaluation problems of small and micro enterprises and even individuals. Then Ant Financial has filled the gap in this field. The significance of is very, very important, and the value of this innovation is very great, but he really touched the cake of traditional Chinese financial industry. In addition, at Jack Ma’s time, I didn’t think his presentation in Shanghai was a speech. I think he was a roadshow, a public relations arrangement. But there are some things that he may not see through the problems of himself and the organization, and he may overestimate his ability. Where is it? That is, he does have a major contribution, which is the borrowing from Ant Financial. This is for small and micro enterprises. This is very good. But he only accounts for 20%, about 400 billion yuan, and the remaining 1.6 billion yuan is usury. And there are huge profits here, and it is a terrifying huge profits formed by high leverage.

What should be done under normal circumstances? We Chinese have a set of methods to resolve mergers, and we resolve mergers in two dimensions. The first dimension is called land reform and even land. The second dimension is to transfer payments through the level of taxation, which is actually the core idea in my "General Public Finance". It is through direct taxation and the establishment of direct taxation to eliminate super rent to achieve rebalancing and rebalancing. Of these two methods, the first method is too drastic, because the land reform is usually accompanied by revolution, bloodshed, and life and death. No revolution or land reform is absolutely necessary. In a modest way, this problem can be solved through direct taxation and taxation reforms, thus avoiding such mergers. The subject of the first topic we talked about today is mergers. The problem of mergers is very serious. Because it is a natural phenomenon of social development, that is, social development usually will be like this at a certain time, it has certain natural attributes, and it is inevitable. There are actually two ways to solve this problem. One way is to revolutionize the merger, land reform, and divide the land; the other way is to use direct tax, and the tax administration forcibly return the excess profits obtained from the merger to The deprived. I would like to say a few more words here. In fact, mild land reform can also be adopted, such as the Huawei model. I describe Huawei’s governance structure as Yue Jiajun—Huawei creates new business and new property rights to distribute it to employees, just as Yue Jiajun lays down new land and liberates new land and distributes it to ordinary people Soldiers, after ordinary soldiers have obtained property rights, are very motivated to defend their homes and the country, so the Yue family army is particularly able to fight. The Yuejia Army was able to fight for the same reasons as the Red Army, the Eighth Route Army, and the People's Liberation Army. They were motivated by land reform, rent and interest reduction, and assets.

Regarding the separation of shares, the United States and Britain actually made some efforts after World War II. For example, major shareholders in the United States must not exceed 5%, Hong Kong must not exceed 30%, and the holding ratio must not exceed a certain percentage. Form a super monopoly. Because our country is not very mature in the social development of industrial and commercial development, and we are gentle on the land reform of industrial and commercial enterprises. In fact, Chinese economists discuss this issue from the perspective of management, that is, the partner, he did not from the perspective of morality. Or think about this issue from the perspective of social equilibrium. Therefore, not only did we balance the equity - that is, the equilibrium in the primary part (not done), we also did not do the equilibrium in the secondary redistribution field, which is the direct tax. Moreover, the discussion of direct tax has become extremely difficult in China. Don't talk about data tax or capital gains tax. Now departure tax, gift tax, inheritance tax, and property tax are not allowed to be discussed or discussed. Fortunately this year, it seems that the central government has made new developments and improvements in the understanding of this matter. We are now repeatedly emphasizing direct taxes, and I personally think that we may be expected to officially introduce direct taxes in 2022, and it may be delayed until 2025 at the latest. Direct tax.

We must solve the problem of mergers because we have noticed that the essence of Hong Kong's problems is mergers. If we can better understand and solve a basic understanding problem in economics, we may be better in this respect. The United States did not do well in dealing with the issue of mergers, so that after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States was completely indulged in financial capital. The external constraints and internal constraints were lost. American scholars and experts do have very big problems. People like Fukuyama have very bad judgments about history, "history is over." Therefore, under such a situation, American financial capital quickly swallowed up industrial capital and shifted to data capital. In this historic process, they wiped out the middle class in the United States. When the middle class in the United States disappeared, the US economic structure was seriously distorted. American scholars and experts do not know what kind of economic structure the best economic structure in the United States should be in the era of data economy. They believe that the economy has developed, so the service industry accounts for the main manufacturing industry and retreats to the second place. However, they do not know the relationship between the digital economy, the industrial and commercial economy and the agricultural economy, and they fail to understand the economic factors that rely on them. People and their relationship. (Speaking of this one more sentence, Xiaohui, when you are studying rural issues and rural economy, you must carefully consider the issue of capital. As a carrier of capital, if your carrier does not exist, or the carrier is insufficient, the carrier If there is a problem, then there will be problems in the distribution or distribution of talents and capital! It must be solved from the root, because this is not a wish of the village, it is a very realistic philosophical problem, or a very realistic economic problem .) After the United States eliminated the middle class, the middle class formed the employment structure of the United States today, because its industries distorted the employment structure, and this employment structure led to the division of American society. This division is not caused by Trump. We will discuss Trump's issue later when we talk about the Trump era.

But what I just said was that after the Second World War, the United States had to carry out a certain degree of socialist transformation internally due to the existence of external pressure and the existence of the Soviet Union, and split the property rights. In fact, I understand American listed companies as public ownership in a disguised form. Its public ownership is not owned by the state, but by the society. It has made some efforts, and the United States and the United Kingdom have also established a direct tax system. However, this direct tax system is structurally problematic. It is far inferior to Northern Europe, far inferior to Germany, and inferior to Switzerland. Of course, it would be better than China without direct taxes. We are in a historical process of highly concentrated capital. At this time, a high degree of capital concentration is required to obtain scale effects and rapid development. In the transition period, institutional distortions are allowed, but institutional distortions are not reasonable or normal. If you don’t recognize this, you will make subversive mistakes. There are too many countries that have made subversive mistakes. Whether it is Latin America, the former Soviet Union, the Soviet Union, North Africa and the Middle East, there is no system distortion. problem. Of course, their economists and their thinkers may have a problem. They were biased by the Austrian school. They did not have scholars who could study philosophy and economics well, and their inheritance of the German historical school was blank. In fact, there are too few people studying the German historical school in our country. We have a superficial understanding of the German historical school. This is a problem. I also hope that Lingnan University will make some efforts in this area in the future.

The time for America’s transformation has been until Reagan’s time after World War II. Reagan was a terrible politician, and Reagan economics is a kind of thing that the Austrian school has exerted to its extreme. Later, it also profoundly affected our country. The so-called supply school and supply-side structural reforms are a very bad thing! But sometimes we have no way. We will write it in our important documents. We don't know what it is talking about. In fact, the person who wrote this thing has no idea what he is talking about. We will explain it later. Reagan disintegrated the Soviet Union, but he did not know the American strategists. He did not understand the thinking of American strategists after World War II. The result of American strategists’ thinking is very clear, that is, the United States has only one ally-it Called the Soviet Union! From the founding of the United States until the end of the Second World War, and almost until the 1960s, the number one enemy of the United States has always been Britain! You may not understand this. Yes, the number one enemy has always been Britain. Throughout the history of the United States, it has been helping Germany and Japan, helping Germany, and helping the new empire compete with the old empire. Later, he and the Soviet Union formed an alliance and formed two camps. In fact, the existence of these two camps is of great significance to the external and internal management of the United States. External management means that because of the existence of the Soviet system, all Western countries are the younger brothers of the United States, and even the third world countries are forced to become younger brothers. The management is very good and easy to manage. Internal management, due to the existence of the Soviet Union, must maintain a state of competition and cannot indulge financial capital. Because if industrial capital does not develop, there will be a disadvantage in military competition without military industry. Therefore, financial capital cannot be indulged and financial capital must be controlled. Then, there is nothing wrong with each other. Reagan broke this balance. He disintegrated the Soviet Union. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the external balance was first broken, and after the external balance was broken, two Big Macs were released. One is called Europe or the European Union or the Eurozone. I call the Eurozone the Fourth Reich of Germany. One is China. These two things have grown up in just 20 years after they were released, and they have caught up with the size of the Soviet Union. The external environment has reversed, and American thinkers, strategists, and economists have not given enough historical thinking on this matter. The internal environment has also changed. Because the external pressure is gone, the internal political and economic policies in the United States have turned to the right, especially in Reagan Economics. They emphasize the market, privatization, and freedom. The Thatcherism of the same period was the same, that is, privatizing all the previously state-owned parts. Reason The social security that should be done is that publicly funded medical services like Hong Kong and Taiwan are gone, and they have become insurance. I will talk about it later. It is the United States’ use of financial means to deal with public issues, especially public health, which is the worst option.

Since financial capital has dominated after Reagan, what you see today in the U.S. election and the dispute between Trump and Biden is actually not the essence. It is the glove fight. What really controls the United States Missing hand. Whether or not Freemasonry is two different things, I don't quite agree with "Currency War" and some statements and opinions of Mr. He Xin. But it does have a hand. It does not control the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, or it can be understood in this way. It controls both the establishment of the Republican Party and the establishment of the Democratic Party. Trump is a rebel of the Republican Party and Sanders is a rebel of the Democratic Party. The two of them are more inclined to the bottom, but Trump is racially inclined, and Sanders is not racially inclined. Trump now represents the working class and the proletariat in theory and form. This is ridiculous, but it is a fact. It does not even rule out that after Trump's defeat, the Republican rebels in the United States will merge with the Democratic rebels. Of course, Trump may not go to Sanders, but the confluence of the rebels within the two factions may be a general trend. When discussing post-Trump American politics, we will say a few words. . After Reagan deconstructed the US control of the global order after World War II, the United States was actually unprepared, and the economy experienced constant economic decline without preparation. Of course, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and it declined. With the strong efforts of Germany, after the reunification of East and West Germany, Germany unified Europe with the mark instead of tanks. I call it the Eurozone and the Fourth Reich of Germany. It has formed a relatively stable pole. Although it has not achieved rapid development, it has achieved relative stability. After the split of the two camps, China finally has a historic space for development. We have made brilliant achievements and achieved unprecedented development. This is thanks to Reagan. When Reagan ended an era, he was after all an actor, he was not a thinker, he was not a strategist, and he could not reach such a height, so the United States was in such a situation.

2. How to define the Trump era

In the Trump era, we have to remember two words, which is also a single word—introduction. Why is there involution or involution? The term internal volume is a concept provided by the American biologist Clifford Geertz. In fact, all living beings will roll in when they grow old and are about to die in the final cycle of their lives. The original intention of roll in is that energy cannot reach the edge area, and energy gradually shrinks toward the core. When a person gets old, the legs get old first. If the hands and feet are not good, they will roll inward, and they will begin to shrink. The United States, as a country, began to appear involute because its energy is not enough to support the current responsibilities and mission of the United States. This involution has actually started since Reagan, but in the Trump era, this involution has reached the point where we have to look directly at it, that is, we must face involution. When the United States is involu- ized, it must deal with external and internal issues in its internal thinking.

I gave Trump another name, and I called him the slitter. Today I brought up a new concept, the slitter. This is actually a sociological concept, horizontal cutting or horizontal cutting. We also call it class analysis, the method of class analysis. This is precisely an important ideological weapon of the German historical school, which may be that the historical school has absorbed important nutrients from Marx. Cross-cutting means class analysis, class analysis, and social class analysis, from which a reasonable style of national political and economic governance, or a reasonable structure, or a reasonable system design and policy design can be derived. In the five thousand years of development of this society, there has been either crosscutting or vertical cutting. The crosscutting is to unite the majority, and the vertical cutting is to divide. What is slitting? Vertical cutting is the vertical cutting of religion, ism, ethnicity, and race. When involved, slitting is an instinctive process, but Trump’s character performs this instinctive process too much and too straightforwardly. The vertical cut in national relations is the occurrence of trade wars, technological wars, and financial wars. It is separating this connection. This is what some people call deglobalization, but it is actually deglobalization caused by the involution of the United States. Trump’s vertical cut, because he is not a thinker, strategist, or economist. He is nothing. He doesn’t understand that the first cut of the vertical cut should not be given priority to the United States, but to allies first. But his first cut was too much and too selfish. He was directly the United States first. He cut not only China, nor Russia, nor Iran or North Korea. He even cut the Five Eyes alliance, and he even cut Canada. It’s a neighboring country like Mexico, and a wall is built with Mexico. The sniper Trump redefines the era of American involution. I call him the Trump era. In fact, the era of American involution has begun. It can also be interpreted as a new door to American foreign policy. Luo doctrine, but he is not as good as Monroe doctrine. Trump’s longitudinal cutting is smaller than the Monroe doctrine in the past. Monroe doctrine also includes the entire Americas, and when the Monroe doctrine is longitudinally cutting, its knife method is not simply cutting the United States. With other countries, and it uses very cruel slitting to other countries. In fact, Mahan's sea power theory is a longitudinal cut to Europe. Mahan's sea power theory has led to an arms race in Europe, that is, everyone is building battleships. After being armed to the teeth, it won’t work if you don’t fight, so you will fight to the death. The two World Wars made the Monroe Doctrine create an internally peaceful and historical time and space for the United States. In this case, the United States has rapidly grown into the world's superpower. As a slitter, Trump has performed internal slits in addition to external slitting. Internal slitting is white supremacy, because you know this nutrient

For China, he used doctrine or religion. When we talk about China, we will talk about religion and doctrine. The sniper Trump has no strategic thinking, that is, even if he enters the scroll, he must have a plan, that is, an orderly scroll and an orderly retreat. His scroll speed is too fast and the rules are too messy. Of course, because China is a kind of weak thinking or passive thinking, that is, Chinese thinkers and thinkers may lack a certain degree of subjectivity and philosophical height, so when we think about the United States, it is how we deal with its involution. A state, an emotion, or a kind of aggression. When dealing with the United States, we must clearly understand the nature of the problems in the United States. Only by accurately defining the Trump era can we know what we should do and how we should do it.

The external isolation of the United States runs counter to the new economy of the United States. The rebel Trump does not understand the general trend of global economic development. His external isolation will cut off the United States’ special advantages in the era of digital economy and globalization. It is to merge and monopolize the global digital capital to obtain super profits. The internal and external cutting will lead to the rapid weakening of the monopoly, merger or control of external digital capital in the United States. I repeat, this point is very important. It is the involution of the United States. Trump's vertical cutting will destroy the existing merger, monopoly and control of the global digital capital in the United States, which will further affect the development of the US economy. And his internal verticality is that this segregation based on ism, religion, ethnicity, and race will lead to extreme internal chaos in the United States, and he will cause more serious internal allocation of resources in the United States, especially the allocation of labor. problem. He had already had a serious problem in the allocation of resources. The allocation of resources in the United States is actually a global allocation system. Now if he cuts off the exterior and separates the interior, the political and economic structure of the US system will be in a relatively short time. All were destroyed inside.

So the election in the United States-Xiaohui just said about whether Trump is president or not, in fact, I think the United States will take off this glove if it can't see that hand. There is a problem with this glove. However, the establishment of the United States, the establishment of the Republican Party and the establishment of the Democratic Party are the same in the general direction of the United States. It's just that the Republican rebels in the United States, the rebels represented by Trump and the rebels represented by Sanders within the Democratic Party, they hold different banners. There is the extreme left, here is the extreme right, socialism there, and Nazis and apartheid here. (Actually, they didn’t understand Hitler at all. Hitler was a master of crosscutting. He did not crosscutting. He united Germany and even the German-speaking countries around Germany very well. He was a master of crosscutting, including what we thought of Jews. Longitudinal, in fact, because the Jews belong to the property-owning class, Hitler’s cross-cutting of Junkers and Jewish capital is similar to the land reform, but this matter is morally unjustifiable, so it is a problem. People behind To learn things, he is not a scholar of the German historical school, and he does not have the depth of history or the height of philosophy, so he cannot understand.) As for Trump, he took an extreme right-wing method to solve the problem of the proletariat, while Sanders went. The socialist way of thinking. They seem to be going to two extremes, but I know that sooner or later they will merge. Of course it is not the confluence of Trump and Sanders. The two old people cannot converge. A new generation will come out to form a confluence. The establishment of the United States, the establishment of the Democratic and Republican parties may also form a confluence. In fact, this election illustrates a lot of problems. You see that the highest court in the United States is controlled by the Republican Party. In the federal court within the Republican control, three of the nine justices are the Republican establishment, three are the Democratic establishment, and three are special Trump was appointed by the rebels, so Trump thought he would have a chance in the Federal Supreme Court, but no chance! The justices of the establishment of the two parties were born in a group, and the judges pushed up by the rebels may not be with them. He cannot solve the problem at this level, nor can he solve it at the legislative level, because both the Senate and the House of Representatives are in the hands of the establishment. So Trump is actually quite difficult. He, a rebel, has climbed to a high position through Twitter, but he does not have legislative and judicial resources, nor can he fully grasp the administrative resources. He has administrative resources such as the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve. , He did something completely wrong again. I will say so much in the longitudinal section. Remember in the Trump era, that the US empire has entered an era of involution. This involution is accelerated and distorted by Trump. It is a very bad situation. . What's inside this involution, I just What I'm talking about is political involution, but in fact there is economic involution. In terms of economic insecurity, Trump has done two things. One is called tax cuts, because he really doesn’t understand economics. If I were his economic adviser, I would tell him to start tax cuts in the second half of 2019, not 2017. Annual tax cuts, the effective period of tax cuts on the economy will not exceed 18 months. The reduction is too early, coupled with the coronavirus, in fact, the United States will be in a very troublesome situation. How troublesome is the United States? You know that the annual fiscal revenue of the United States is only 3.6 trillion yuan, and the fiscal expenditure of the United States reached 6.7 trillion yuan this year. Their overdraft and deficit are 3.1 trillion yuan. That is, its tax revenue and its overdraft deficit are almost half and half this year. Up. How can such a country be governed? The US national debt is 21 trillion, exceeding GDP, and the total US public debt is 27 trillion. According to the current economic situation and the epidemic situation, the US fiscal year from 2020 to 2021—the US fiscal year is October 1st. By September 30, next year's September 30, there may still be a deficit of more than 3 trillion yuan. Then the total amount of US public debt will reach 30 trillion. I have a basic judgment that the total US public debt exceeds 50% of US GDP. Then the strength of the US dollar will no longer exist and it will be a very weak weakness, so you know why gold Go up. When the US public debt reaches 200% of GDP, the US dollar may collapse, that is, 40 trillion public debt, the United States may have serious problems, systemic financial and economic crises, and may be irreversible. One trillion yuan means that its tax revenue and its overdraft deficit are almost half and half this year. How can such a country be governed? The US national debt is 21 trillion, exceeding GDP, and the total US public debt is 27 trillion. According to the current economic situation and the epidemic situation, the US fiscal year from 2020 to 2021—the US fiscal year is October 1st. By September 30, next year's September 30, there may still be a deficit of more than 3 trillion yuan. Then the total amount of US public debt will reach 30 trillion. I have a basic judgment that the total US public debt exceeds 50% of US GDP. Then the strength of the US dollar will no longer exist and it will be a very weak weakness, so you know why gold Go up. When the US public debt reaches 200% of GDP, the US dollar may collapse, that is, 40 trillion public debt, the United States may have serious problems, systemic financial and economic crises, and may be irreversible. One trillion yuan means that its tax revenue and its overdraft deficit are almost half and half this year. How can such a country be governed? The US national debt is 21 trillion, exceeding GDP, and the total US public debt is 27 trillion. According to the current economic situation and the epidemic situation, the US fiscal year from 2020 to 2021—the US fiscal year is October 1st. By September 30, next year's September 30, there may still be a deficit of more than 3 trillion yuan. Then the total amount of US public debt will reach 30 trillion. I have a basic judgment that the total US public debt exceeds 50% of US GDP. Then the strength of the US dollar will no longer exist and it will be a very weak weakness, so you know why gold Go up. When the US public debt reaches 200% of GDP, the US dollar may collapse, that is, 40 trillion public debt, the United States may have serious problems, systemic financial and economic crises, and may be irreversible.

As for Trump, he doesn’t know how to govern the country. He doesn’t know what tax cuts and financial deregulation means. They actually speed up. The US issue we talked about has accelerated the speed of mergers and made this involute. The economic aspect is stronger and more violent, and he has done the opposite. And character, that is, in fact, the moral level of the country's governor is very important. He really doesn't feel bad about selling his land. He is willing to do everything for the election. In fact, his tax cuts and deregulation of financial supervision have hurt and persecuted the US economy as historic. For a while, we will talk about three possibilities in the post-Trump era. We don’t know to what extent and how much we can recover. We still don’t know. The foreign part of the United States on economic issues, the trade war against China, has an impact on the Chinese economy, but it does not constitute destructive damage; the technological war has an impact and cannot constitute destructive damage; the financial war, the United States actually Financial warfare cannot be fought, and it will accelerate its involution. I think American thinkers and strategists realize that there are people at the height of our lecture tonight, and they may not be able to exert important influence because the United States still has a Some great thinkers, strategists, and some scholars, like Kelton who proposed MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), still have some powerful roles, but they cannot affect the hand, nor can they affect the glove. , Does not affect Trump. In fact, to a large extent, we also have the same problem. Sometimes our thinking can not constitute an impact, or constitute a profound impact. But we are not pessimistic, because China as a whole has entered the era of the digital economy, and our self-media is so advanced. You can see that we can be heard by thousands or even tens of thousands of people in a class, so some things can still get a certain degree solve.

Regarding the involution of the United States and Trump's verticalization, I just add a few words, and I cannot say more. Please pay attention to the carrier of capital in the digital economy era-data, why is it called ants? Deep thinking in economics or a certain kind of awareness is of great significance to national progress and even national stability. We understand that some major conflicts and conflicts that are emerging now, whether they are international or domestic conflicts, can all see the vertical. Silhouette. The imperialists’ method of governing the world is longitudinal cutting. They are dealing with China’s problems or cutting longitudinally, but we originally used the cross-cutting method to deal with the longitudinal cutting method. However, a large number of slitters do appear or exist in our country. . I really feel very sorry for those who talk about patriotism instead of talking about super rent and direct tax. Because it is absurd to talk about loving the party and the country because it doesn't know how to use longitudinal methods. The reason why China is today is that all previous leaders of China have been masters of crosscutting, and they have maintained a high degree of vigilance about the vertical cutting of China by foreign forces. I am particularly pleased that our contemporary leadership is highly subjective on this issue.

Third, the trend of the post-Trump era

In the post-Trump era, whether Trump is or not, it is a post-Trump era. There are three possibilities, the first possibility-accelerated involution. If Trump continues to govern, he may accelerate his involution because he did not think he was wrong. Whether it was a longitudinal cut to the outside or a longitudinal cut to the inside, he did not think that he was wrong, and he did not intend to crosscut. He is also not familiar with the cross-cutting method. The best cross-cutting knife in this world is Mao Zedong, that is the master of cross-cutting knife! He may not have read the works of the German historical school, but he has at least mastered Marx and Lenin. His "Class Analysis" is very powerful, and "Analysis of All Strata of Chinese Society" is very powerful. The Agrarian Revolution during the Red Army period, the rent and interest reduction during the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, and the land reform during the War of Liberation were all crosscutting, and the crosscutting was very successful. A new China was crosscutted and industrialization was quickly realized with crosscutting efforts. Of course, there are also mistakes on the issue of cross-cutting. Even after the founding of the People’s Republic of China, he still wanted to cross-cut again in 1966. This is no longer possible. When history develops to a certain historical process, it is invisible to things. Cross-cutting, revolution in the soul. Cross-cutting the invisible is just like contemporary American thinkers and economists, who just can’t see that the carrier of capital is data. I don’t know how data is used as a capital carrier, how it is calculated, how to design the structure , Don't understand. So contemporary economics will make a lot of mistakes. Fortunately, this matter is blocked by the coronavirus. Now we need to build a big cycle, a double cycle, a whole industrial chain, and an industrial ecology. At this time, we finally understand that it is not a supply. Side issue.

There are three possibilities in the post-Trump era. The second one is the greatest. I think the United States is thinking, American thinkers are thinking, and the invisible hand of the United States is also thinking. Accelerating the involution of the United States will quickly move forward. Decline, even split. Even if you don’t become the boss, you won’t be the second child. Big problems will arise, and the outcome may be worse than the former Soviet Union, so they will prevent the process of accelerating involution. It is the second possibility-they begin to ease the process of involution, reduce the speed of involution, and find new ways to ease the process.

The third possibility is-reform and innovation or even revolution to get out of involution and enter a new development trend. In physics, there is a theory of dissipative structure—the theory of dissipative structure invented by Ilya Prigogine, which is equally important in economics. The theory of dissipative structure talks about a large amount of energy loss in the process of transition from a stable structure to another stable structure. Excessive energy loss—transformation fails and becomes discrete; energy transfer is controllable—transformation succeeds, new structure Appears, can expand, expansion can continue to develop. The third possibility is about the transformation process from one dissipative structure to another. The transformation process in the United States is far more dangerous than this in China (so we will talk about the issue of China later). Its transformation process is in a very dangerous situation, and it needs historic and unimaginable changes, revolution-like changes. What does that mean? The United States must take the road of centralized power, that is, federalism is not conducive to transformation, and the United States must move toward centralized power. Because if the United States wants tax reform, the current structure will not work. It must be centralized. Under the conditions of centralized power, the United States may still carry out the dictatorship of the strong, centralization and dictatorship of the strong. Many friends may feel shocked by what I said today. The last thing Americans don’t want to see is what he should be. The appearance he hates the most is what he should be. Many friends said that this is not China or Russia. The style? not quite.

When we were discussing economics, we discussed moral issues at the initial stage today. It is impossible to achieve morality by Austrian school, Hayek, and neoliberalism. Then it is the German historical school. The German historical school requires a responsible party government to represent the broad interests, long-term interests, the interests of the broad masses of people, and the long-term interests to carry out an overall governance, overall planning and guidance. . Is centralization really unreasonable? Is the autocracy of the strong unreasonable? Imagine that Clinton will be president for 30 years. What will America look like today? We have been contaminated on many issues, contaminated by false superstitions and habits. This superstition and habits are Austrian school, supply school, Hayek and neoliberalism, and we are contaminated by many things. For some domestic experts and scholars who are more right-handed, I don’t think they are a matter of position or ideology. I always think that they have insufficient academic standards, because you cannot establish subjectivity if your academic level is not up to a certain level. In fact, you are kneeling there to learn from foreigners, but in a specific aesthetic environment in China, these people are still highly regarded. In fact, they don't understand and cannot see such a situation in the post-Trump era. However, let’s talk about time. Obviously, before 2024, during Biden’s administration, the third situation will not occur. There may be a second situation, which is to slow down the speed of involution, seek solutions, or Seek social consensus. Is there a possibility of the third situation in 2028-large-scale institutional innovation, overall social reform! There is a 50% probability. But I still have deep skepticism about this because if the United States needs internal integration, it needs very powerful and very important thinkers to come up with a set of theories, and it needs a strong man and a very powerful hero to stand up. This hero may finally stand up by integrating the rebels of the Republican Party and the rebels of the Democratic Party, forming a new political party and powerfully achieving centralization, and completing the powerful governance of an era. The possibility of this situation may also be difficult to emerge in 2028, with a 50% probability. If it does appear, it may be in 2032. What I want to say about the time node is that this time is very important to China, because the United States is in the process of involution or slowing down involution is a period of historical opportunity for China, and the window period of society is also relatively safe for us. when. Don't think of the weak, don't just stare at the phenomenon that is happening in front of you, but think about this problem from a higher philosophical height and a farther historical depth.

Because Biden is a weak government. Trump is weak. Trump has no legislative and judicial powers. He has only half of the executive power. Biden may be a little better than him, but he is still subject to legislative and judicial restrictions, and large-scale reforms are not suitable or appropriate. Doesn't fit Biden's character, so he may be a maintenance condition. For the post-Trump era, I used two words to define it—guaranteed success. Whether Chengdu can be guaranteed is a question. What will happen to the US economy in the post-Trump era of the Baocheng period? I just mentioned that because of the problems with the tax system in the United States, because he does not understand cross-cutting, serious problems have appeared in the tax structure. He financialized taxation issues, that is, the US Treasury Department resolved the US deficit problem by overdrafting the Federal Reserve, that is, the problem of insufficient taxation, and the formation of path dependence, and now it has entered a state of inertia. It is very difficult to get rid of this path dependence, to get out of this inertia, and to break through this inertia. It really requires a very powerful thinker or economist to make this clear, and a very good politician is needed. Do you know how the Trump phenomenon came about? That is, the United States has begun to involute and the middle class of the United States has disappeared. The American people and American people especially need a hero to save them, lead them to change the status quo, to change the involute and create a new history. So their American culture is a heroic culture, so they are there waiting for the macho. In 2008, they thought that a macho man came from the sky, and Obama came, but after eight years, he was not a macho, he couldn't. They waited for the macho, this time they felt that Trump was like a macho, with characteristics-rebellion was reasonable, not afraid of the heavens and the ground, and they would beat anyone if they caught him. But after four years of really contacting Trump, you know that he is not a hunk, he is not a hero, he is a liar who looks like a hunk. So after being deceived twice, the Americans have now chosen one-let's not be a macho, let's find a more reliable old man, then Biden. But Biden is not a hero, and he can’t solve this problem. So Americans have to call heroes. Calling heroes is more complicated. Heroes can’t be met. Moreover, this era is sometimes an era of hero crushers. Yeah. Well, there are a few things left, just a few words about the post-Trump era.

4. China's development path

I will leave a few minutes last to talk about the relationship between the China issue and China's path. There are also problems in China, but the problem in China is the troubles of young Werther. We are the problems encountered during the transition from teenagers to youth. We are not involved, and we are still growing. We are an adolescent, with pimples, full of curiosity about the outside world, full of fantasy, and even a teenager who wants to fall in love very impulsively. Our political and economic problems in China are summed up in two words as impulse. We are blind and impulsive. In fact, we don't understand, but we are also very anxious. Sometimes we engage in little superstitions. There are also feudal superstitions. You see, we do business with gods, gods, and Buddhas. Some of our politicians sometimes can’t control themselves. They are also gods, gods, and Buddhas. Our thinkers and scholars have even learned from the Austrian school. Delivered to the main stage of God. We have our problems, but our problem is a problem in growth. This problem can be solved and overcome. Also, the youth in growth can learn and is willing to learn, because he has an understanding of the outside world and the unknown world. Full of interest. In addition, thanks to the previous leaders of China over the past 70 years, the first generation of leaders completed the reorganization of assets through the land reform. The cross-cutting method was very fluent, and the industrialization was quickly achieved on top of the cross-cutting. The second-generation leader Deng Xiaoping thought deeply about the shortcomings of state capitalism and decided to use social capitalism to carry out a limited transformation of state capitalism. China’s current state is-state social capitalism, more like the German social market economy. It has not only gained some of the benefits of the market economy, but we have gained part of the freedom that the Austrian school said, and we have also maintained the German historical school. Regarding the part that must be maintained for the subjectivity of the state and the subjectivity of the people. It may be unintentional or conscious, because many of our leaders do have a master level, and their depth of thinking is very deep, although they may not be able to use academic language to summarize. But if you think about it carefully, they just happened to take care of it, and they did it very well.

We face four new problems. The first question is to reinterpret ideology. Trump said that we are revisionism, and the West defines us as communism and socialism. Scholars and experts in China subconsciously understand communism, socialism, and centralization as derogatory meanings. In fact, this is not the case. Marx’s ancestors were all Jewish rabbis, so you can see the rabbi’s temperament in Marx. He is like a missionary. But his father converted to the Protestant Lutheran, and his father used the Protestant Lutheran to baptize Marx. He was deeply influenced by the Christian Lutheran when he was young, and when he was young, communism originated from the Protestant Lutheran. Zong. Do you know that all countries and regions with Christian Protestant ethics have completed industrialization, entered modernization, and possessed modern civilization. This is the case in Britain and the United States, Western Europe, and Northern Europe. Marxism spread to China and formed Chinese socialism, or it is called Mao Zedong Thought or Deng Xiaoping Theory. I personally think that they are the best or purest of the development of Protestant Christianity. If God comes to the world today, I believe that he prefers communism. Of course, we are still okay in terms of doctrine, but we may not fit in that way or fit in that way in many aspects. This is another matter. We have to explain ideology, why does China not violate communism? Because communism is a Protestant Christianity. Why is there a Protestant Christianity in Europe? Why is there a Renaissance and Reformation in Europe? The explanations of modern Western philosophers and thinkers are wrong. Without the Renaissance, how could there be a Renaissance? How can art be revived? How can religion be reformed? It was the iron hoof of the Mongols who sent Chinese Confucianism, mainly Mencius, to Europe, which profoundly influenced the rethinking of ideology in Europe, and part of it became the ideological weapon of ordinary people and ordinary people. Because of the Mencius branch of Confucianism, the Si Meng school is based on the people. This kind of thinking deeply influenced Europe, formed the Renaissance, the religious reform, and formed the ideological foundation of European industrialization. I have been saying that an important mission of our generation is to welcome Mencius back from Europe. This is what I mean. We should not make a simple separation and opposition between communism and Western capitalism, no! Above a certain source, we have identity and consistency, so we are all advanced. Don't simply define it as why centralized autocracy and other things. They don't understand communism. We want to tell them that we are the purest and most advanced branch of the Christian Protestant ethics. I think the ideological explanation is very bad.

The second China question, one is to reinterpret ideology, the other is the evolution of political and economic systems, or the cross-cutting method. That is, we must understand the super rent. In any case, China has to start direct taxation in 2022, and it must not exceed 2025 at the latest. If 2025 is delayed, China will also begin to fall into involution. This is a very serious problem. It is not an economic problem, it is a political problem. We must be proficient in using cross-cutting and longitudinal cutting. We must be aware that others are slitting us. We must cross-cut ourselves and externally, especially to deal with internal problems in China. Direct tax reform is a landmark event. It is a watershed in history. Once direct tax reform is on the way, our political and economic systems will be evolved and complete, and we are not afraid at all. If this matter is resolved in 2008, how can there be a trade war? Where is the technology war? There will be nothing. It is because we let this matter go after 2008, and it took a full twelve years to delay the backlash during the involution of the United States. We ourselves almost made historical mistakes on this issue. Because we did not carry out direct tax reform, China will have a capital loss of 3 trillion US dollars, and almost went wrong. Now this situation has finally been contained and resolved. So much to say here.

The third problem we need to solve is the understanding of the new economy. We need to know that we have gone from land mergers, property rights mergers and finally to digital mergers. We must not repeat historical tragedies, nor repeat American mistakes. From the very beginning, we have solved this problem with foresight from the design of the system and policy. We must consider both the first and second levels. We must encourage the Huawei model and make strong constraints on the differentiation and socialization of property rights. First, we must have a mechanism for our own internal mergers and monopoly. Containment; secondly, we must use the most severe means to prohibit or contain external forces that are foreigners' merger and monopoly of Chinese digital capital. If this matter is not handled properly, China's new economy will overturn. The ant incident gave us a very deep thinking process. The spectrum of society is that they have opinions on Jack Ma and the Ant Group, but they do not know the margins and can't grasp the essence of the problem for a long time. We must not only let it develop, but also see its benefits for development, and at the same time, we must also have some kind of restraint, which is to let Monkey King fight the fairy and wear a tight-knit spell. This matter is very simple to say, but in fact, it is very difficult to deal with the political system and economic system design very extensively.

The last question is the new world. The new world after the new economy is the relationship with others, that is, how China handles its relationship with the United States and its relationship with other countries. Here I want to say one thing. In fact, the past 300 years have been maritime politics and there is no geopolitics. Now we really need to think about geopolitics, that is, we return from maritime politics to geopolitics. As the Eurasian plate condenses and the edges are broken, countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan become unimportant. How can China radiate its subjectivity to solve the East Asian problem, and further solve the problem of East Asian integration from the perspective of East Asian problems and East Asian integration , This is a big subject. When I gave lectures in the past, I always brought out a map. That map was given to President Xi by Merkel. It was President Xi’s first visit to Germany and Merkel gave it to President Xi. That map is the map of the late Ming Dynasty, drawn by the Germans. There is no Japan on that map. China has only a part of the southern border, and the north and the west have no borders. The Germans are sending out invitations to China—that is, going west. I wrote the article "The Road Facing West". We must have a new understanding of geopolitics, the center is condensed, the edges are broken, the center is broken, and the edges are condensed. Why is the United States always slitting China, continuously slitting it? The British Empire knows more about longitudinal cutting, so if you look at North and South Korea and North and South Vietnam, they almost divided China into two parts. Later, they wanted to divide China into seven parts. Imperialism is a master of vertical cutting, so we have not dealt with it geographically. Of course, in the new era, how do we deal with the new world in the new economic era? For everyone to think.

It took 1 hour and 40 minutes to talk, and there are 20 minutes left. Let's chat. Thank you everyone, please ask Xiaohui to ask questions.

interactive session:

Okay, thank you, Teacher Lu. We enter the interactive link below, and we have collected several questions.

The first question is that Mr. Lu just emphasized and repeatedly emphasized the methods of longitudinal and transverse cutting. Could you please explain a little bit about the method of transverse cutting and longitudinal cutting? ?

The second question is that a friend asked about the involution in the United States. What do you think about the social problem of involution in the Trump era that is so serious? Trump still gets nearly half of the votes when he is so bad?

The third question: I would like to ask you to analyze how likely it is that the United States will start a world war to solve its domestic and foreign problems? Or how likely is this problem to be passed on?

The fourth question: It is also the rebels. You just talked about Trump, the rebels within the Democratic Party represented by Sanders. Does he have the energy to grow and develop in the United States? Let's focus on these four questions first.

Speaker: Lu Qiyuan

I will try to answer the question in 20 minutes.

Let me talk about Sanders first. In fact, Sanders almost swept a thousand troops when he was elected within the Democratic Party. If the leaders of the non-Democratic establishment have come forward to coordinate, it should actually be Sanders, that is, the two rebels are fighting, the Democratic rebels and the Republican rebels are fighting. But Sanders is 80 years old after all. In addition, the Democratic establishment may have reached some compromise with Sanders on certain things, so in the end Sanders withdrew and became the Democratic establishment and the Republican rebels. Showdown. The people, when the people are not the people but the masses, they are very blind. There have been countless peasant uprisings in Chinese history, and their leader is a gangster, and the United States is no exception. That is, when the proletariat in the United States has not been organized and mobilized, and it is not the people, he is very blind. He would choose Trump, because Trump is too much like a macho, too like a hero. I am not surprised that the United States has given so many votes to Trump, because the student who asked such a question may be thinking about the problem from the perspective of an intellectual. If you really understand the people at the bottom, you can understand what will happen in this election, and there may even be more serious situations than this, and the United States does not rule out the possibility of civil war and revolution in the future, and there may be The situation is outrageous than it is now. this is a problem.

The second question is about the issue of war. The involution of the United States did not begin during the Trump era. The involution of the United States began during the administration of Bush Jr., because when Bush Jr. took office, he used one term The Secretary of Defense is a very powerful financial expert in the United States. I forgot his name (Leon Panetta). He is very old. Why invite financial experts to be Minister of Defense? This is also amazing. It is because the US national defense must make a structural adjustment in accordance with US national capabilities. Therefore, the United States began to be controlled by the face. Bush Jr.'s face was controlled by Obama's line. It controlled the main traffic lines. If the face couldn't control the line, it would control the line. The Trump line control could not be controlled. Once the United States falls into a point of control, it will no longer be able to carry out a world war. There is a possibility of a local war. A world war is unrealistic because its national power cannot support it. And because it has entered the new economy, new era, and digital economy era, it is the style of war in the information age, which is different from the aircraft cannon that we previously understood. It is not aircraft or artillery. Controlling electromagnetic power determines the outcome of war. In terms of controlling electromagnetic power and even heaven, China has actually reached a considerable level. There is no possibility of other countries competing with the United States, only China. At this level, it is actually very difficult to manage. That is, the United States has already missed the best window period for containing China by military means, and it will not be time to solve the problem by fighting.

As for the issue of involution, in fact, the involution in the United States is not to the extent I said. In fact, I personally think that what I said is not that exaggerated, because we end up with lectures or lectures, but it is enough. In fact, the bigger problem with the American involution is that it is natural rather than conscious, that is, the energy of the United States as a whole is not enough to support, that is, the blood supply energy cannot reach the toes when the age is older. If it is conscious involution at this time It is conscious that some measures will be taken to increase energy and increase exercise so that the blood supply can be normal. The United States is now in a kind of natural involution. Natural involution means to ignore it. If you don’t get it, you don’t need it. It’s in a process of natural involution. And people like Trump are still accelerating the process of natural involution. I didn’t start talking about the economy today. Actually, when we talk about the US economy, you know how serious the US involution is. Today I talked about US Treasury bonds and the US dollar. I also talked about the timing of the issue. In fact, if I were an American, I would have been worried. Of course, it is also very helpless. When the United States needs thinkers and strategists the most, American thinkers and strategists seem to be blocked and buried. This is a kind of sadness in this country of the United States. I hope that our country will not be like this.

As for cross-cutting and longitudinal cutting, I just use these two more vivid words to explain a method of learning. In fact, the method of class analysis was not started by Marx, it has been in Chinese history. Cross-cutting and longitudinal cutting can actually be explained by other knowledge. As for the deepest things in the heart of the slitter, such as Obama. Let me put it this way, usually people who use the slitting knife method are those with vested interests, and those who protect vested interests use slitting, and safeguarding vested interests is just an expression of involution. In order to take care of the interests of white people, white people are supreme, this kind of verticality about race and ethnicity will appear. In fact, where the slitters are running rampant, this is the embarrassment of the crosscutters. In fact, it is easy to understand the longitudinal section in Hong Kong. As for the sociological or economic theorization of longitudinal section and transverse section, it may take time and a long process. Today we can only click to the end. Today I used some rare or our new concepts or new vocabulary to explain the problem. When we have time in the future, we will reorganize and systemize some statements.

Thank you everyone, thank you Xiaohui, thank you teacher Jianzhi! I am very happy today, and I don’t know if this gift I gave will satisfy everyone. Thank you for your hard work!

Moderator: Yan Xiaohui

Thanks to Mr. Lu for sharing. Mr. Lu has a broad and clear thinking, and clearly divides the topic tonight into three small topics to share with us one by one. If we look back briefly, the first one is that Mr. Lu’s views on the United States’ own problems actually have a deep historical depth, especially based on the analysis of the history of economics and the context of economic schools, and the starting point is based on morality. Perspective and humanistic care, as well as a philosophical perspective. From an institutional point of view, Mr. Lu believes that the United States has not restricted enough capital since World War II. In the new digital capital era, that is, the new economic era, there is no timely prevention and no means to prevent it. This has led to large-scale mergers. phenomenon. Teacher Lu especially emphasized the word merger, so capital quickly concentrated, leading to the lower middle class in the United States and the involution of the social economy.

Then this phenomenon and situation is the second issue, about Mr. Lu's definition of this Trump era. This definition does not refer to the period of Trump’s tenure, but just at this stage of his tenure. American society has features of the era of involution or this feature is particularly obvious. Then Trump as a rebel is the definition of Teacher Lu. He used a longitudinal approach, but this approach lacked a strategic vision and implemented the protectionist policy of external isolation and external cutting. These practices cut off the relative advantages of the digital economy and digital finance era of the United States, and capital mergers were blocked. The combination of involution and external cutting have caused great damage to the United States itself. Coupled with the loose financial supervision during Trump’s tenure, the domestic debt of the United States has skyrocketed, which has deepened the risks and crises of this era in the new economic era. Of course, Mr. Lu believes that the post-Trump era America faces the most important thing. Its job is to prevent fragmentation, to do a good job of internal integration, to slow down or eliminate its involution.

The third topic is about China's path. When talking about the first topic, Mr. Lu mentioned that because China does not have the historical burden of the Western industrial capital period, it is easier to accept and innovate the new economy. This is development. An advantage of the new economy, but when talking about the second topic, Mr. Lu thinks that China should prevent the use of American-style vertical cutting methods, which may also bring risks to China itself. On the contrary, we should seize the window of opportunity for the United States to deal with the Trump era, that is, to deal with involution in the post-Trump era. Mr. Lu defines China as a viable country now in a growth period. It should use some of its own historical experience in dealing with external challenges. Mr. Lu also gave several suggestions on the specific path. One is adjustment. Ideology or breaking the inherent ideological opposition; the second is to pay attention and understand, this is also the problem of Mr. Lu’s research for decades is this phenomenon of super rent, so Mr. Lu suggested that the tax system reform should be accelerated to prevent China from further internal The third is to deepen the understanding of the new economy and prevent the invasion of China by external financial forces in the process of entering the era of the digital economy; fourth, in fact, Mr. Lu is very confident that we must face this bravely In the new world, to properly handle the external global relationship, we must adjust and learn some of this strategy from our own historical experience, such as crosscutting. In general, Mr. Lu is full of confidence and expectations for the future of China. We thank Mr. Lu and learn from Mr. Lu!

Thank you, Teacher Lu, thank you everyone!