American Crisis?

Issue #39

Are you wondering if we are living in a pivotal moment in history?

Perhaps you’re concerned with the prevailing political polarization and where things are going. Or perhaps you sense that even if history doesn’t repeat it has certain unnerving echoes. You (okay, I) wonder if there’s a framework that can make sense of history and a way to think about the future. ????????

Well, Neil Howe provides that in his latest book The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About When This Crisis Will End.

The key to his idea of futurism is that (unlike others) he focuses on how we will change rather than on how the world will change – and that hinges on a concept called the saeculum.

A saeculum is a period of about 80-100 years and is based on the interplay of two spans. One, it is roughly the length of a long-lived human life. Two, it is the length of about four generations or “turnings” (each generation is about twenty years).

By examining data over the last several hundred years, Howe (a historian and economist) demonstrates that the interweaving of these components produces a particular pattern of the seasons of history.

The generational idea was first presented by the Arab polymath Ibn Khaldun who provided a comprehensive cyclical theory in his opus Muqaddimah (Introduction to History). He observed kingdoms/dynasties following a pattern of security and prosperity that seemed to be driven by a predictable schedule of generational replacement.

See if this sounds familiar . . .

A new dynasty usually lasts 100-120 years. The first generation are founders, the second are loyal imitators of the elders, while the third has no direct contact with the founders’ experience and lacks the same passion. Traditions are invented but dynastic decline is already underway. The fourth generation doesn’t care and may even despise the spirit of the founders, often presiding over dynastic collapse. (Replace “dynasty” with “business” or “political leaders” or any suitable alternative of your choice). ????

The key factor, Ibn Khaldun argues, is a concept called “asabiyya” (group feeling or social cohesion). The early stages (when dynasties typically rise on the edge of kingdoms) are marked by pastoral manners, simple laws that are obeyed, a thirst for reputation, modest affluence, relative egalitarianism. The late stages are marked by refined manners, complex laws that are evaded, a thirst for money, and great riches, hoarded by a few, and a withering of asabiyya.

Howe (and his longtime collaborator, the late Bill Strauss) have studied the impact of generations through several books (including The Fourth Turning; An American Prophecy. By looking at Anglo-American generational data over the last five hundred years and building on the work of historians (such as Quincy Wright and Arnold Toynbee), they identify the remarkable regularity with which turnings occur. ???

While there is way too much detail to summarize the essential idea of turnings is as follows.

They are about 80-100 years long and divided into four seasons or turnings that arrive like clockwork (predictably driven by the intersection of aging and generational turnover). ?

The First Turning (High) brings a renaissance to community life, a new civic order where people want to put the crisis of the last Fourth Turning behind them. Survival fears morph into desire for growth and produces prosperity. Societal polarization is low, and wars are unlikely. The post World War II era is the most recent example (with previous ones being post-Civil War and post-American Revolution).

The Second Turning (Awakening) starts as a fierce protest against the morality and regimentation of the prior period and leads to an inner search for meaning. The 1970s is the most recent American example, though Howe traces the metronomic periodicity all the way back to the Protestant Reformation (1530s-40s).

The Third Turning (Unraveling) starts with the entire society embracing the liberating cultural forces unleashed by the Awakening. People are freer, more content, and pragmatic – eventually sliding toward cynicism, pessimism, and alienation. Recent example is the 1990s-00s (but also echoed in the pre-Civil War 1850s and pre-Revolution 1760s).

The Fourth Turning (Crisis) begins as a reaction to threats that would have previously been ignored but can no longer be deferred. The overriding consideration is that the will of the national community must prevail. Public authority increases along with a feeling of national peril. Towards its end exhaustion sets in.

The argument is that we are in the seventh Fourth Turning (called the Millennial Crisis) – rhythmically preceded by the Great Depression/World War II, Civil War, American Revolution (all the way back to the War of the Roses in England 1455-1487). ??????????

There are other political theories that triangulate toward this being a pivotal moment in time.

One lens (promoted by political scientists like Walter Dean Burnham) says that we are currently living through America’s third republic (with founding moments occurring in the late 1780s, late 1860s and mid 1930s). By that count the fourth republic is due soon. And there are two other prominent political theories that also predict this as a period of significant change. ??

Taken together what does all this mean?

Howe predicts that (if historical patterns hold) the current crisis will climax in the early 2030s, (likely around 2033, although it’s impossible to be precise). America’s future will be determined by how the crisis is resolved.

The higher chance is that it will be favorably resolved – likely in the form of one group gaining dominance and uniting the country – and eventually leading to alignment on many major issues that vex us today (such as climate change and nuclear weapons).

For a potential prototype of favorable crisis resolution see this article by Thomas Friedman on what appears to be unfolding in Ukraine. Note that “favorable” refers to America’s future and doesn’t mean easy or without strife.

But unfavorable crisis resolution is still a possibility even though most of the prior six (small sample size warning) Fourth Turnings have been largely successfully resolved. For a potential prototype of unfavorable crisis resolution see this chilling book by David French. ??????

In conclusion, if you are feeling that asabiyya (social cohesion) is fraying and polarization is at fever pitch you are not wrong. But we’ve been there many times before in a predictable way (caution – predicting backwards always has the danger of overfitting the data). This theory predicts that the current situation will be resolved one way or another within the next decade . . . ?and will be followed by a renaissance.

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End Notes

Other Perspectives –

Peter Turchin uses the field of cliodynamics to understand large historical forces.

Samo Burja has a different take.

#Fourthturning, #politicaltheory, #saeculum, #insight, #learning

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