America throws away the global rules of the game it established 80 years ago—A new game begins

In 2025, the United States is upending the rules it crafted in 1945 to organise the world.

Emerging from World War II as the dominant power, challenged only by the USSR, the U.S. shaped the global order around its interests: from the United Nations in New York to the World Trade Organisation, the World Health Organisation, NATO, U.S. Aid programs, the International Court of Justice, the Bretton Woods agreement, and more. American soft and hard power peaked in the 1990s after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the USSR.

However, a shift began -at least- around the 2008 financial crisis and the first Obama presidency. Many Americans felt these rules benefited competitors like China more than themselves.

Donald Trump, in his second term, is swiftly delivering on his mandate. His actions, though shocking in their speed and brutality, align perfectly with his campaign promises. The world may be astonished, but the direction was predictable and announced.

With the cards redistributed, Europe risks being among the main losers. Yet, this new game presents both risks and opportunities. If Europeans and other forces realise that nothing is predetermined, they can seize the moment to their advantage.

History is accelerating. Faites vos jeux, rien ne va plus…

Did we just witness a modern "Nazi–Soviet Pact," this time between the U.S. and Russia? This surprising alliance allowed each empire to focus on its imperial objectives and divide Europe into spheres of influence, precipitating WW2.

Trump is ready to hand Putin a total victory in Ukraine, at the expense of Ukraine and European security. Even Putin didn't expect such a turnaround after three years of a war that looked more like a defeat than a victory. And now it is clear for most Europeans, that war will spread on the continent in a very near future.

From an American perspective, this move is rational. The quicker they can challenge China, the better. Weakening the European Union and potentially driving a wedge between Russia and China serves U.S. interests.

It was foolish of many European governments to believe a country with 340 Million people, separated by an ocean,? would always be there to protect 500 Million Europeans against 130 Million Russians.. The wake-up call is brutal, as Europe has ignored warnings for over a decade.

The new rules imposed by the U.S. are imperial, reminiscent of the 19th century. It's no longer about the rule of law, international cooperation, or prosperity through free trade. Now, it's about power, zones of influence, and a quasi-colonial race for resources. Trump focuses on his expansion zone from Canada to Greenland and his influence in Mexico and Panama, keeping Western Europe on a short leash while giving Putin free rein in Eastern Europe.

The next big question is: What will happen between China and the U.S.? Will there be a direct confrontation, or will we see a deal similar to the Yalta Conference? Putin has already proposed a three-way summit in Moscow for May, hinting at a new Yalta.

Yet, Russian weakness is evident. The operation in Ukraine, now in its third year, has drained the country's resources for minimal gains. The war economy is generating massive inflation (central bank interest rates at 21% are a sign for it), and Ukrainian resistance is unyielding. Europe is now fully aware of the danger, and the energy transition away from Russian resources is irreversible.

On the U.S. side, the current geopolitical readjustment is a significant admission of weakness. The economy is driven by consumption of foreign goods, with a massive trade deficit and national debt exceeding $35 trillion. The personal savings rate is down to 3.8% at the end of 2024, and the economic influence of the U.S. in 2025 pales in comparison to 1945 or even 1989.

So, what about Europe? Is it already out of the game?

Europe-bashing and lack of confidence suggest the continent will lose before even playing the new game. And the odds for such a scenario are high. However, Europe has solid foundations: the world's leading economic zone, a robust export industry, a strong internal market, and a wealthy -personal savings at 14,8% in 2024- , well-educated population. The challenge is the lack of unity and political courage.

The swift reaction and unity witnessed in recent days, parallel to the U.S. leaving the party and post-election changes in Germany, are positive signs. The architecture of defense is now a unifying topic across Europe, from London to Warsaw, Kyiv to Rome. Europe has the means to assert itself as a positive power, endorse its sovereignty, uphold liberal democracies and the rule of law, and continue to build collaborations and trade globally. The journey will be complex and uncertain, but there is a path forward.

Who will be the future winners?

China will undoubtedly benefit, filling the gaps left by the U.S. withdrawal. India, especially if there is a Sino-American confrontation, will be a key alternative partner for Europe. Powers that navigate intelligently, building bridges and taking regional leadership—such as Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, and Nigeria—will also emerge as winners.

There are moments in history that act as acceleration nodes, periods of tectonic shifts that have been building for a long time but suddenly happen all at once. These moments can bring geopolitical or macroeconomic changes. Recent examples include 1914, 1945, and 1989. It feels like 2025 is one of these historical tipping points, relaunching a new game with different rules and unpredictable outcomes.