AMERICA ALONE

trump has promised that he will resolve the issue of the Russian invasion of Ukraine his very first day in office. The only practical way he could accomplish that would be to sell out Ukraine. And that would be in keeping with the MAGA-Republican foreign policy goals as outlined in Project 2025. These “America First” aims call for America’s retreat from an active military presence in Europe and South Korea. Critics suspect that the United States will withdraw from both NATO and the UN under a trump Administration.

I believe that if trump does so, Putin will tighten his grip on Georgia and Ukraine, invade the Baltic States and threaten Poland. In the Pacific, I expect China to interpret this retreat by the US from its leadership of post-WWII liberal democracy as a signal of America’s willingness to abandon Taiwan.

And herein lies the rub. trump, I expect, will want to resist a takeover of Taiwan by the PRC. North Korea might well use this opportunity to threaten South Korea, especially if the US has withdrawn its 28,000 or so forces. My expectation is that trump will abandon Taiwan in return for China’s assistance in preventing a resumption of the Korean War and in exchange for some meaningless economic concessions from China. He’ll advertise this desertion of a friend as a smart deal.

In the meantime, trump’s antagonism toward Iran may prompt the tactical use of WMD by Iran’s proxie terrorists. The targets of those attacks might not be limited to the MiddleEast.

All of these developments, I reason, will be tied to the “America First” policy. As the US surrenders ground to its adversaries, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea will sign a mutual defense pact, not unlike NATO’s Article 5 agreement to treat an attack against one as an attack against all. As the dictators grow in power and strength across the globe, America’s commercial and military influence will shrink.

The thing to understand here is that these expansionist ambitions of the world’s authoritarian states are not tied to any one American Administration. They are all long term objectives than can be exploited to greater or lesser effect depending upon the particular US foreign policy in place at any given time.

What is uniquely troubling about trump is his patent admiration for the unilateral political and military authority of despots like Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Viktor Orban, etc. I worry that instead of strengthening the international alliances that have constrained our overseas foes for the last 80 years, trump will seek to imitate the tyrants’ domestic authoritarian control. trump’s stated aims under an “America First” policy would certainly favor an enormous buildup of US military and internal security forces while simultaneously retreating from international treaties and agreements.

Like the “America First” movement of the 1930s, the MAGA-Republican version today eschews international commitments, treaties, agreements and alliances. It is an isolationist policy that will result in our becoming “America Alone.”