The Ambivalent Relationship Between a Continent and a Country

This article talks about the latest events in the relationship between Russia and African countries starting with the Russia-Africa summit last week and going back, exploring their meaning and impact in the overall geopolitical arena.

To tackle this topic, I have broken down the article into four over-arching parts:

1. The Russia-Africa Summit of July 2023
2. The Black Sea Grain Initiative: An Unrenewed Agreement
3. Africa & Russia: An Ambivalent Relationship
4. Summit Results

1.????The Russia-Africa Summit of July 2023

On the 27th?of July, the Second Russia-Africa Summit kicked off in St. Petersburg.

Out of the 54 governments on the African continent, only 17 sent their heads of state, while representatives of 32 other states (including 10 prime ministers) were welcomed in the second largest city of the Russian Federation. This is?a 60.5% decrease in attendance from the first summit, as 43 heads of state had made the trip back in 2019. The Kremlin blamed the lower attendance to Western meddling, with Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov citing that “This is absolutely blatant, brazen interference by the United States, France and other states through their diplomatic missions in African countries and their attempts to put pressure on the leadership of these countries in order to prevent their active participation in the forum.”

On the agenda of the two-day summit, the war with Ukraine and the withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative were the highlights.

2.????The Black Sea Grain Initiative: An Unrenewed Agreement

In July 2022, the United Nations and Turkey brokered a deal between Ukraine and Russia - two of the biggest agricultural producers globally - to allow the safe passage of agricultural products, which led to the re-opening of three Ukrainian Black Sea ports. 32.8 million tonnes of grains were exported under this agreement last year, leading to a stabilization of global food prices & security.

The deal also included a separate agreement to facilitate the export of Russian food and fertiliser.

According to Moscow, this part of the accord has not been met. The Russian government argues that even though their food and fertiliser are?not?subject to sanctions, they have been facing hurdles in the form of restrictions on insurance, logistics and most importantly – payments.?

Russia has, since last year, been cut off from the SWIFT international payments system. This has resulted in the country defaulting on its foreign debt for the first time since the fall of the empire more than a century. Although the Russian government had the money to service the debt payment due May 27 2022, Western countries led by the USA froze the foreign currency reserves it held outside its borders – around USD 640bn.?

The largest country in the world by area has been demanding that the Russia Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) be reconnected to the SWIFT network to facilitate the trade agreements under the Black Sea Grain Initiative - to no success.?

Another justification presented was that of the grain exported from Ukraine, “less than 3% went to poor countries” and “more than 70% to high-income countries, mainly the European Union” said Putin in an announcement to the African leaders.

To be exact, around 25% of the exports went to China and 44% to high-income countries according to the UN. The latter defended this position by pointing out to the fact that although most of the shipments did not reach poorer countries, they helped stabilize global food security and enable the decrease of food prices by more than 20%, which benefited less developed countries.?

The Russian president added that his government had been trying to send cost-free fertilizer to African nations, but that this has proven difficult due to the export restrictions they have been witnessing. It is expected that this statement was purely fabricated to justify the decision by appealing to the African leaders’ emotions.

As the parts of the agreement concerning Russia had allegedly failed to be implemented, Moscow decided not to renew the deal last Monday. It is worth mentioning that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convinced Putin to upkeep the agreement last year on three separate occasions where he wanted to withdraw from it.

The latter asserted that “our country can replace Ukrainian grain commercially and free of charge”.

On that news, the White House said that the suspension “will worsen food security and harm millions”, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stating that this would “strike a blow to people in need everywhere”.

Kenya’s Principal Secretary for Foreign Affairs called the decision a “stab on the back”, while most leaders of the continent have abstained from commenting.?

Press secretary Peskov said that should his country’s export demands be met, it will “return immediately” to the deal. Hours before the withdrawal, Ukrainian sea drones knocked out Russia’s bridge to Crimea, a major route for troops. The Kremlin refuted any links between the attack and the withdrawal from the deal. Following its withdrawal, however, Russia bombed Ukrainian grain in fracture in port cities like Reni, destroying 60,000 tons of grains in the Odessa attack last week.?

On Monday, Forbes reported that three civilian cargo ships each with a different registration country ran the Russian blockade in the Black Sea and docked unharmed in the small Ukrainian port city of Izmail on the Danube Delta. The trip was watched by four NATO warplanes who were patrolling the area.?

This raises the question, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC, of whether the blockade will actually be enforced by the Russian Black Sea Fleet who had signaled that it would stop or attack any ships sailing to?Ukraine?“Russian forces appear to be unwilling or unable to forcibly stop and search neutral vessels headed to Ukraine through the Black Sea despite ostensibly setting conditions to do so,” remarked the ISW according to Forbes.

Ukraine has been trying to revamp its Danube ports as an alternative to its most important one, Odessa which is regularly bombed by Russia. Ukrainian ports along the Danube are subject to less attacks, probably due to their proximity to Romania, which is part of NATO.

3.????Africa & Russia: An Ambivalent Relationship

During the five votes concerning the invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly, 19 African countries backed Ukraine at least during one vote, whereas just two voted with Russia.?

African governments, however, either abstained or were a no-show on 52% of occasions. They largely have been trying not to take a firm stance on the situation. This makes sense, as countries of the African continent are not interested a cold war-esque situation were not siding with one power would mean supporting the other. Not showing or abstaining from vote was the only solution presented to them.

Most leaders in Africa have refrained from either condemning or supporting the invasion and are trying to remain neutral.

Last month, African leaders led a peace mission to Ukraine and Russia. The delegation of presidents and envoys met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky before flying to Russia and meeting Russia’s Vladimir Putin.?

A “positive reception” of the 10-point proposal was noted by both Russia who found the principles “very difficult to implement” and Ukraine which refused any talks with Moscow until Russian troops withdrew from Ukraine.

A big part of the second day of the summit was dedicated to talks of de-escalation and a return?to the status quo by African leaders.?

They have voiced their concerns to the host country regarding human rights, justice and food safety as their countries have been majorly affected by the inflation & increased food prices that came as by-products of the decreased supply of food and fertilizer following Ukraine’s invasion.

Putin thanked his counterparts for their inputs and added that he would be open to talks with Kiev. Azali Assoumani, chairperson of the African Union said regarding this statement "now we have to convince the other side".

Russia has been providing a lot of governments in the southern continent military help via the Wagner Group, including the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya & Mali. In a number of countries, the Russian state was also directly involved in security, along with the presence of the Wagner Group. Although the mercenary force’s aborted rebellion against the state over the war in Ukraine raised questions about its continued implication in Africa, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a statement hinting that the group will continue its operations in Africa.?

The leadership of Wagner has been in question, as it is expected that its current head & founder Yevgeny Prigozhin – who led the insurrection – will be replaced. Prigozhin has been spotted by CNN meeting with an African dignitary on the sidelines of the summit.

Russia is increasingly being isolated from its traditional trading partners in Europe and the West via economic and political sanctions. This is normal, as when you invade a country you have to assume the consequences of your actions. The West, especially members of the EU, have been trying to definitely move away from Russian oil, natural gas, food & fertilizer products they had been relying on.

Although the latter has been responding to these by trying to choke the global supply of resources by decreasing the volume of natural gas sent, refusing to renew the Black Sea Grain Imitative and more, it is interesting to see that the aggressor is not accepting its responsibility in its worsened political & economic condition.

Moscow is then now on a mission of seeking allies in Africa, which, by every economic standard, is the powerhouse of the future as the material-rich continent is also rich with the most important natural resource: human capital.

During the opening day of the summit, Putin mentioned the?“joint determination to counter neocolonialism, the practice of applying illegitimate sanctions and attempts to undermine traditional moral values”, promising his African counterparts a multipolar world order and the fight of “neocolonialism”, ending the summit by announcing that “Russia’s attention to Africa is steadily growing”.

It is common knowledge that the prevailing sentiment on the continent is that the West only sees it as a mine of resources and is only implicated for its self-interest and nothing more.?

The cultural condescension that is felt by many Africans from Western countries has caused countries all around the continent to be wary of the West. However, it is not cozying up to Russia either, as most governments have been trying to stay on the sidelines of global heavy-weight matches.

In?an aim to avoid exactly that, the participants of the summit penned a joint declaration for?“the establishment of a more just, balanced and stable multipolar world order, firmly opposing all types of international confrontation in the African continent”.

Many of the dignitaries at the summit thanked Russia’s help in their battles for liberation and independence during the 20th?century. The host country promised it will help them in their restoration efforts of plundered cultural heritage and in seeking compensation for the de-stabilization and damage caused during colonial times.

Both the leaders of Mali & the CAR thanked Russia “for helping us to oppose foreign hegemony” according to the CAR’s president Faustin Archange Touadera.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who condemned “Wars of hegemony” while not mentioning the war in Ukraine said that “The only justified wars are the just wars, like the anti-colonial wars”.?

These statements by African leaders echo the perception of sentiment of not only their respective people, but of the continent as a whole.

In the past year, Europe and the USA have been pushing African nations - who form the largest UN regional voting group - to take a firm stance regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine –preferably theirs.?One example was France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s statement that he had “seen too much hypocrisy, particularly on the African continent” regarding the war in Ukraine during his visit last year to Cameroon.

This has not gone particularly well with most governments as it was seen like an obligation rather than a choice – which felt “patronizing” according to South Africa’s Minister for International Relations and Cooperations, who added that?“One thing I definitely dislike is being told either you choose this — or else”. “I definitely will not be bullied in that way, nor would I expect any African country worth its salt to agree.”

The repeated targeting of African leaders by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the fact that the USA, who is not a member of the court, has sanctioned a number of African leaders have led some countries to pulling out of it and pointing to hypocrisy by both the EU and the US.

This feeling has also been exasperated by the conditional aid that the West has been providing Africa and the condemnation of most leaders who do not align with their political interests.

In Kenya, Russian ambassador Dmitri Maksimychev condemned an offer from 13 Western embassies in Nairobi to mediate between the opposition and the government following opposition-led anti-government protests against a new tax hike, tweeting “If it is not interference in internal affairs, what is it?”

African governments are keen, however,?to limit Russia’s influence on them as well. They are trying to remain equidistant, with a best-case scenario being allies with the US, Europe, China and Russia and not taking any stance regarding high-level conflicts between the world powers.

They are aware that Russia’s promises are also in self-interest.?As an example, Russia pledged in the first summit in 2019 to double its trade with African nations to USD 40bn. So far, it is USD 22bn short, with total trade stagnating at USD 18bn per year, most of which is with four countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco & South Africa. The trade is also disproportionate, with the continent importing eight times what the country does. fDi intelligence also shows that Russia only accounts for 1% of all foreign direct investment to Africa.

The Second Russia – Africa Summit comes a month before Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa meet for their BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

Two weeks ago, South Africa announced that Putin would not attend the event “by mutual agreement”, as his presence in the country will force it to arrest him due to the current arrest warrant against him issued by the ICC.

4. Summit Results

At the end of the summit, Putin announced?the write-off of nearly USD 23bn of debt from African countries.

He also promised to help African countries deal with food security. “I have already said that our country can replace?Ukrainian grain,?both on a commercial basis and as grant aid to the neediest African countries, more so since we expect another record harvest this year,”.?

The host country intends to send 25,000 to 50,000 tons of grain aid to each of Burkina Faso,?Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and Central African Republic in the next three to four months said the Russian leader.

The White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre replied to this statement, saying that “A handful of donations to some countries cannot replace the millions and millions of tons of grain exports that help stabilize food prices around the world,”.?

Vedant Patel, US State Department spokesperson mentioned that half of the World Food Program budget was paid by the USA compared to Russia’s contribution of less than 1%, adding that “So it’s pretty clear to us who is actively committed to addressing the dire concerns of food security,”.

Sources:

cnn.com, cbs.com, washingtonpost.com, apnews.com, reuters.com, theguardian.com, economist.com, aljazeera.com, euronews.com, ctvnews.ca, time.com, lemonde.fr, foreignpolicy.com, forbes.com