Ambiguity Aversion: Why Uncertainty Keeps Us From Making Better Choices

“We all complain about it, and I present alternative options, yet time and time again, we continue to stick with a solution that no longer meets our needs.”

Sara, a procurement manager, shared with me her frustration that while her organization complained endlessly about its existing project management software when alternative options were presented, no one wanted to try them.

“Why does this keep happening?” she asked me.

Why do we stick with inferior options?

The human brain is a fascinating organ. Our brains encounter around 11 million bits of data per second and make around 35,000 decisions per day. As you read this newsletter, your brain also senses information beyond the screen. It is also regulating your temperature, making sure you are breathing, and all the other activities that need to happen to keep you alive. Pretty impressive, huh?!

While our brain can do so much, there is one job it prioritizes above all else: keeping us alive. So, our brains are wired to avoid risk, and ambiguity is risky. Instead, what our brains crave is stability and predictability. While this avoidance of ambiguity might be helpful in keeping us alive, in the modern world, where we need to embrace new opportunities, it can lead us to make poor decisions.

What is ambiguity aversion?

Ambiguity aversion is the tendency for people to avoid situations with unknown outcomes. Our brains are wired to seek certainty and avoid risk. For our brains, new options and things we are unfamiliar with present risk. This means that when we are presented with two options, one familiar to us and one not, the tendency is to select the familiar one. This explains why Sara’s organization struggles to decide on a new software solution even though they know their current solution is no longer effective.

While this bias exists to protect us from danger, it can also lead us to make poor decisions. In our current world, ambiguity is unavoidable. Every day, we have to make decisions that require us to navigate uncertainty.

Lessening the ambiguity

While we cannot rid the world of ambiguity, we can work to minimize the uncertainty around our decision-making to make it easier for our brains to make decisions. I often talk about the superpower of blending brain science with design thinking. Here are…

• Empathetic Exploration is about taking time to understand a problem from the perspective of those experiencing it. One way we can reduce ambiguity is to go out and speak to the people who would be impacted by the decision. Specifically, in these conversations, you want to focus on understanding their needs, wants, and pain points—a solid understanding of these three things can help narrow down the options.
• Curious Experimentation is about learning by doing. It requires testing options to see how they might work in the real world. When we can tell our brains we are going to try something, if it doesn’t work, we have a way out, it significantly reduces the risk for our brains. There are many different ways to experiment with options, and how you experiment will depend on the context of the problem. The key is to be transparent that it is an experiment, set time frames, and make sure you record the outcomes so you can share them.
• Visual Communication is all about giving life to abstract ideas. The visuals you create can range from crude sketches using lines and shapes to process flows, journey maps, etc. When we embark on something new, our brains struggle to picture what it will be like. So, if we are able to paint a picture of the future state, this can also help to minimize the ambiguity.

Notice that I talk about this in terms of ‘lessening,’' minimizing,’ and not eliminating. This is because, in the real world, it isn’t possible to eliminate ambiguity, so we have to frame it as lessening. What also happens when we talk about potential decisions (through empathetic exploration), physically engage with potential options (through curious experimentation), and see what the solutions might be (through visual communication), we start to make the new thing more familiar. The more familiar something is to our brains, the less ambiguous it is, and the less our brains perceive it as a threat.

Podcast Round-Up

Want to hear more about how brain biases can get in the way of decision-making? Last week…. Check out the replay of the live stream here ????

https://youtu.be/81C9_On8xoc

Hack of the Month

Create a simple prototype of your idea or solution, even if it's just a rough sketch or mock-up. Focus on not making it pretty. Then, share your prototype with 2-3 people and see how they respond. Pay attention to whether your crude and simple prototype makes it easier for you to communicate your ideas. Does it help increase interest in the idea?

Till next time,

Dani

Hello, I'm Dani. I help leaders unlock their organization's potential by identifying and moving beyond the stuck points holding their organizations back. My career has spanned Fortune 500 companies, large corporations, and government agencies across the USA and NZ. Ready to make stuff happen in your organization with evidence based practices? Let's chat! Book your discovery call today https://calendly.com/dani-chesson