Is Amazon Driving the Real Estate Market In Arlington?

We ran across a click bait post today that the real estate market in Arlington, Virginia is up 17% since Amazon announced their HQ2 last November. Whoah! Amazon is blowing up that market, right?

Wrong. No, of course it isn't. Let's take a look. Here's a full Altos Research report for Arlington, Virginia.

The real estate market in Arlington is indeed super hot. The economy is booming, supply is low. Prices are up year over year. The Altos Research Market Action Index answers the question "How's the market?" with one number, by analyzing local supply vs. demand characteristics. Over 30 is Seller's Market conditions. The Arlington, VA real estate market is strong in seller's market conditions. Amazon certainly hasn't hurt that, but the trend predates Amazon.

The Arlington real estate market has strong seasonality, with a pricing peak March 31 each year. Much of the price climb over last fall is due to normal seasonality, rather than Amazon.

It's certainly better to be in Arlington, VA over Arlington Heights, IL, where the tepid Chicago economy keeps most of those suburbs in a buyer's market with plenty of supply. (try it: Use the search box in any Altos Research real estate market report to see local market data anywhere in the country.)

Arguably the market in Arlington, Texas is just as hot. With home prices up 10% year over year and very little seasonality.

Anyway, beware the click-bait headlines. The data is usually more complex, even if the story doesn't feed our confirmation bias as well.