Amazon is Coming

Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1 (at Amazon). - Jeff Bezos in his letter to Amazon's shareholders

With Amazon’s increased foray into diverse industries and its single minded plan to disrupt the status-quo where-ever it operates, it is no exaggeration that businesses shudder at the mere thought of the tech behemoth casting its eye on their kingdoms.

Amazon does not define itself by its products, or by its competitors or even by the type of customers it serves; not even by the problems it solves. It rather considers it its mission to be everything to everyone every time, everywhere. Make no mistake, Amazon will leave no stones unturned in its quest for world dominance as Earth’s most customer-centric organization. All businesses have customers and by that definition are potential markets for Amazon.

Winter is coming and it is real. Days will be long, nights longer.

Many will die. Some will survive. A few will emerge larger than life.

What can businesses do to stay in DAY 1 in this Amazonian winter?

For starters, businesses can take better care of, no, anticipate and fulfill the needs of the people they serve. Continuing the same way as before is no longer an option.

To survive, businesses will end up doing one or more of four things (Let’s call it the ‘disruption response strategy framework’ to sound all consultant-like).

2. Offend

How do you kill Achilles? Aim for his heels.  

How do you stop the White Walkers from turning you into ice zombies?

• Danaerys Targaryaen: Dracarys! (Reduce them to ashes with my Dragon)
• Jon Snow: Slash them with a Valaryian sword. Then burn them.
• Samwell Tarly: Stab them with Dragon glass. Then burn them.

How do you counter Amazon in your industry?

Take the fight to Amazon. Do the things that Amazon does poorly, well. Do the things that Amazon is good at, better. The number of aspects these are, their potential to create significant business impact, your expertise in those areas, the scale at which you do them, will all determine how much of a threat or annoyance you will be to Amazon in your market space.

Be warned, however that if you choose to go on the offensive, it is an all or nothing game. It is a game of speed, cunning, timing and patience; oft times ruthless to the cogs in the business machine. Get ready to bleed, slowly and painfully.

The frightful five (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) owning rare dragons in our increasingly inter-connected world. Walmart with its recent activities is very Jon-Snowy in preparation for a showdown with Amazon in the war for retail dominance. Perhaps, it may not be such a bad idea for Walmart to look for help from one of the dragon riders? I hope, you do know something Walmart!

Could Alibaba be the dragon to Amazon's White Walker?

2. Defend

OK, so you are not one of the frightful fives or the undisputed leader in your industry like Walmart or geography like Alibaba. But you are proud of what you have built, have resources at your disposal to give a good fight and have people (customers and employees) who will stand by you.

How do you prepare for this winter?

• Bran Stark: Build a wall - A massive magical wall.
• Children of the Forrest: Go into stealth mode. Share know-how with those who can defeat the enemy.

Your sustainable competitive advantage IS your wall – keep investing in it. Put your best people to man the wall 24 X 7. Look for help within and without. Learn from those who have faced Amazon and also those who have been part of Amazon to know its strengths, weaknesses and its general modus operandi. Do the things Amazon is poor at, exceptionally well.

Keep finding ways to delight your customers. These ways may not necessarily be expensive and over the top, but they must always be thoughtful, useful and relevant to the customer. If it is also something unexpected, even better.  

Rethink everything putting the customer at the heart that thinking. This may mean overhauling set mindsets, strategies, operations and even business models. You might have to kill off some of your babies in order to realign your focus and protect the rest of your business. You might have to part ways with some key decision makers and business partners who do not have the same priorities. You may even have to choose not to serve certain types of customers in order to provide a superior experience to your core customers. You may have to take on temporary hit on the top line and bottom line while you regroup and conduct your business.  

Put in place robust infrastructures, backend processes and the right people to provide consistent scalable customer experience. All three are vital. However, businesses can choose to excel in one while being good enough in the others to consequently carve out a distinctive brand identity that is synonymous to a unique kind of customer experience.

Collaborating with business partners is no longer enough. A business’s vendor ecosystem must have synergy and a shared vision even when there are one-time or transactional relationships in play. Otherwise, precious business resources will end up sucked into negotiations, meetings and root cause analyses than delivering key business outcomes.

3. Submit

You have built something amazing in your industry, and your customers love you for it. But you sadly don’t have the resources to continue to grow and deliver greatness in the changed landscape. If your can’t beat them, why not join them?

Bend the knee. To the Ice Gods. Or may be to the fire God. The Old Gods. Or the Seven.

Look for opportunities to collaborate, not combat. Make Amazon part of your business ecosystem through meaningful partnerships. Alternatively, make yourself an ally in Amazon’s grand scheme of things for your industry.

If the timing is right and circumstances demand it, allow your business to be acquired keeping your long term business interests in mind. But take your time to choose the right partner prudently – it may or may not be Amazon. For a merger to succeed, not only must there be product and operational synergies, but also strong compatibility in terms of strategic intent, mission, vision, values and culture.

This is the route Whole Foods seems to have taken.

Will Slack follow suit?

4. Retreat

All other businesses, not falling in any of the above three categories, are better off moving out and exploring opportunities in adjacent unsaturated markets.

Flee and look for greener pastures like the Wildlings.

That way, you will have a fighting chance of staying in business, though serving a different customer need, instead of dying an untimely death.

Markets are evolving at a breakneck speed. A few businesses like Amazon are actively shaping our future in ways unimaginable. This warranted a closer look.

These are my personal views, what are yours?