Aluminium Price Trends Around China's National Day: A 2021-2023 Review and 2024 Outlook

China's National Day holiday, which spans the first week of October, marks a critical period for the aluminium market. Although many factories reduce production during this time, the combination of lower supply and pent-up demand can cause significant price fluctuations in the weeks following the holiday. In this article, we analyze aluminium price trends before and after National Day from 2021 to 2023 and provide insights into what 2024 might hold.

The chart below provides a clear view of how aluminium prices have moved around China's National Day over the past three years.

2021:

Pre-holiday: In September 2021, aluminium prices started at around 19,000 CNY/ton and climbed steadily as the holiday approached. By the end of September, prices had reached 20,500 CNY/ton.

Post-holiday: After the holiday, prices surged even higher, hitting 21,500 CNY/ton by mid-October. This was largely due to the strong post-holiday demand combined with supply-side constraints, driving prices up by over 2,000 CNY/ton in just over a month.

2022:

Pre-holiday: In September 2022, prices were relatively stable around 21,500 CNY/ton. However, unlike the previous year, a slight downward trend emerged as the holiday neared, reflecting market uncertainty and cautious sentiment.

Post-holiday: After National Day, prices dropped significantly, bottoming out at 18,500 CNY/ton before recovering slightly to 19,000 CNY/ton by mid-October. This was a result of increased supply, combined with slower-than-expected demand recovery post-holiday.

2023:

Pre-holiday: By September 2023, aluminium prices were hovering around 19,500 CNY/ton. As the holiday approached, a moderate upward trend emerged, with prices rising to around 20,000 CNY/ton at the start of October.

Post-holiday (Forecast): Based on historical trends and current market conditions, it is likely that prices will continue to rise after the holiday, potentially reaching 21,000 CNY/ton or higher by mid-October, driven by recovering demand and the usual post-holiday price surge.

What to Expect in 2024?

Looking ahead to 2024, several factors suggest that the trend of post-holiday price increases will continue:

Increased Demand: The rapid growth of sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and infrastructure projects will sustain high demand for aluminium.

Supply Chain Adjustments: As factories gradually ramp back up after the holiday, there will likely be a brief supply-demand imbalance, further fueling price increases.

Global Economic Recovery: With the global economy expected to continue its recovery, particularly in key industries that rely on aluminium, we can anticipate that the market will remain strong.

Conclusion:

Over the past three years, we have observed varying degrees of price fluctuations around China's National Day holiday. While 2021 saw significant post-holiday price increases due to strong demand and limited supply, 2022's decline reflected a more complex market environment. As for 2023, current data suggests that we are likely to see a continuation of the typical post-holiday upward trend, with prices projected to surpass 21,000 CNY/ton by mid-October.

For businesses that rely on aluminium, understanding these market patterns is crucial for effective planning and procurement strategies. At Shanghai Defeller International Trading Co., Ltd., we are available 24/7 throughout the holiday period to assist our clients with real-time price locking and supply chain management. If you have any inquiries about the aluminium market or need a reliable supplier, feel free to reach out to us at any time.