Alternative Data from NIQ
This month features insights from: COIN, WING, ASC.L, CELH, SAMSUNG, SN, QCOM and INTC
Coinbase (COIN): Monthly New & Transacting Users continued to demonstrate a positive YoY change of +65.4% & +6.9%,?respectively. Moreover, Deposit AOV experienced a sharp decline this month due to a high Order Count volume; Deposit Order Count has outpaced Deposit Order Total since December 2023. This reflects that people are depositing a smaller amount each time but depositing more often, potentially due to sweepstakes that Coinbase is running.
Wingstop (WING): NielsenIQ has monitored Digital Sales growth across WING’s digital channels (Wingstop App/Website and 3rd Party Delivery Service Providers). WING Digital Sales were up 42.1% YoY in January 2024, on the tail of a strong FY 2023. Digital Sales growth over the last year and into January 2024 can be attributed to WING growing to over 2,000 locations in 2023 (+13% YoY), investing in new markets, and strong consumer activity in the Food Delivery Service market which is currently led by Uber Eats and Doordash.
Asos PLC (ASC.L): NielsenIQ’s Average Discount Value estimate for Asos (ASC.L) showed MoM growth in each region in January, meaning that Asos increased discounting this month versus December. This appears to be a seasonal relationship caused by a post-holiday drop in orders; Asos must discount more to get customers to shop after the holiday season. This January, orders were down -16% MoM compared to December, versus -14% last year and -6% in 2022, suggesting that this pattern of decreased post-holiday spending is becoming more severe.
Celsius Holdings (CELH): Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) reported strong 4Q23 Revenues and became a “$1 billion brand” in FY 23 with Total Revenues of $1.318 billion, up +102% YoY from $654 million in FY 22. NielsenIQ RMS point-of-sale data is well situated to track this growth, with CELH accelerating sales on strong volumes due to their distribution partnership with PepsiCo that began in late 2022. On average, CELH increased price per ounce on its top-selling 12oz base size items by +10% YoY in FY 23, higher than price increases of +6% YoY on top-selling items from competitors Monster and Red Bull. NIQ data will show if and where additional price increases take effect in the Energy Beverages category in 2024
Cold + Flu Season: A count of distinct orders containing both “cold” and “flu” was up 42.5% YoY for the month of January. Trends for orders containing “Kleenex”, “nasal spray”, “Advil”, and “Tylenol” were also all up significantly YoY.
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Samsung (005930.KS): The latest generation Galaxy S24 Series Smartphones has started with a fairly successful launch, with GfK data showing robust YoY growth for the new phones. Upside has been driven predominantly by strong growth for the high-end Plus and Ultra variants, particularly in developed markets, which is noteworthy given the S24 Series is the first from Samsung to feature the new Galaxy AI; this marks Samsung as the first major entrant into the GenAI Smartphone market
SharkNinja (SN): Thanks to strong growth for its Air Fryer lineup, SN is expected to see strong sustained YoY growth in international markets throughout 2024, according to GfK data. Upside is expected to be further bolstered by its expansion into new product categories, such as Personal Care, where GfK has seen a rapid rise in SN share after a recent entry to the market.
Qualcomm (QCOM): GfK saw in the Samsung A25 teardown that QCOM provided the RF power amplifier content, which is notable given QCOM has only limited exposure to the Exynos-powered A Series. This also shows a willingness from QCOM to pursue growth by participating in the lower-cost segment of the market, a divergence from Qorvo and Skyworks who generally play more so in the mid-to-high-end range of the hyper-competitive RF market.
Intel (INTC): 14th generation Core CPU adoption has been robust for INTC thus far in 2024, thanks to rapid adoption within the PC market for the lower-end Raptor Lake Refresh architecture after a significant channel fill for the new product in late 2023. This upside has come at the expense of the Meteor Lake architecture, however, which is Intel’s first to feature an NPU, and might bode poorly for Consumer interest in on-device AI within the PC market.
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