Alliance restructuring reshapes new competitive landscape | Shipping industry

According to the Shipping Industry Network, in February 2025, the global consolidation market experienced its largest alliance restructuring since 2015-2017. Shipping companies have also launched a new round of market share competition.

Analysts point out that this alliance restructuring will transform the original three alliances (2M, Ocean Alliance, and THE Alliance) into four alliances with different strategies and market shares.

In addition to maintaining stability with the Ocean Alliance, it still serves COSCO Shipping Group, CMA CGM, EVA Shipping, and Orient Overseas. Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) has started "solo" operations, launching a new independent transportation network for the Far East Northwest Europe route; Maersk and Hapag Lloyd have started operating the Gemini Cooperation maritime network; And the Premier Alliance was reorganized by Japan Ocean Network Shipping (ONE), Hanxin Shipping (HMM), and Yangming Shipping.

In recent weeks, spot freight rates have continued to decline due to concerns about resuming flights to the Red Sea after the Gaza ceasefire agreement was reached.

Analysts in the market generally expect that during the deployment of the new network, major new alliances will have the motivation to compete for market share, especially the "Gemini" may adopt "aggressive" pricing strategies in order to attract more customers.

In other words, the efforts of shipping companies to compete for market share will bring further pressure to the continuously declining freight market.

Alphaliner stated that the historic restructuring of the alliance has prompted Maersk and its competitor MSC to start lowering prices for some routes below spot market levels in an attempt to attract cargo.

Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said, "During the transition to the new network, the risk of actual price wars increases, and shipping companies may focus on competing for market share

In the previous three major alliances consisting of 2M, Ocean Alliance, and THE Alliance, shippers had three networks with similar designs and services. 2M has a capacity of 2.3 million TEUs, Ocean Alliance has a capacity of 4.59 million TEUs, and THE Alliance has a capacity of approximately 3.27 million TEUs.

After the alliance restructuring, this competitive situation may affect the market share of the East West route alliance. At present, the Ocean Alliance is the largest alliance with a capacity of 4.59 million TEUs. Alphaliner stated that it is expected that with the operation of new shipbuilding, the capacity of the Ocean Alliance will eventually exceed 5 million TEUs.

However, Sea Intelligence analysts point out that Ocean Alliance's market share on trans Pacific routes will slightly decline, "not because they are reducing capacity, but simply because other shipping companies are investing capacity at a faster pace.

Gemini has announced its 3.7 million TEU network deployment plan; MSC is expected to deploy at least 3 million TEUs on the east-west route.

Alphaliner stated that Premier Alliance will be the smallest alliance with a capacity of approximately 2.39 million TEUs. However, driven by the ONE new shipbuilding plan and cabin sharing with MSC, Premier Alliance's capacity may reach 3 million TEUs.

The different strategies of different alliances, as the new alliance network is gradually deployed in the coming weeks, provide shippers with unprecedented more choices.

Under the previous alliance structure, network design was largely similar. However, Maersk and Herbert's new CP "Twin Star" network adopts a hub&spoke network system, which reduces the number of port calls and avoids potential congestion by expanding branch and transit hub networks, with a focus on a 90% punctuality rate.

On the other hand, MSC's network focuses more on direct connections with more ports. Openness and cooperation have become the choices of MSC, Ocean Alliance, and Premier Alliance, with a focus on "direct hanging" to meet the demand of shippers for fast transportation.

Alphaliner pointed out that there is no clear "winner" in the strategies of different alliances.

The high class rate promised by Gemini is currently only on paper, and it still needs to be proven in practice that their network can achieve it

MSC's approach feels more 'natural', but due to its many ports of call, ocean routes may face the risk of delays

The differentiated deployment of a new alliance network in the freight and charter markets will have an impact on the efficiency of the global container fleet and vessel utilization in the coming weeks or months.

In recent weeks, due to ongoing concerns about resuming operations in the Red Sea, freight market rates have plummeted. This has not stopped shipping companies from continuing to compete for capacity, and the charter market is still thriving.

VHBS pointed out that despite the continuous decline in spot freight rates, the container ship rental index New ConTex closed at 1414 points on February 13, up about 106.7% year-on-year.

According to the transaction, Maersk rented the 8030 TEU container ship "Manzanillo Bridge" for a daily rent of $100000 for a period of 2-3 months. At the same time, TS Lines has leased its 7000 TEU new ship "TS Hong Kong" to Maersk for a daily rent of $99750 for a period of 2-3 months.

Dafei Group leases the 4400TEU container ship "SCI Mumbai" (built in 2008) for 6 months at a daily rent of $50000.

At the same time, the strength of the charter market is further reflected in long-term lease transactions.

According to the transaction, Maersk has been leasing the 4255 TEU container ship "Baltimore Star" (built in 2008) from Greek shipowner Chartworld Shipping for over $35000 per day for three years since June.

ZIM reportedly rented a 2800TEU "Calandra" vessel (built in 2010) for 2 years at a daily rent of $27000.

The broker stated that these two transactions indicate that the rent for long-term leases has increased by 60% compared to the transaction a year ago.

In short, the sentiment in the container ship charter market is still high at present. The future development depends on the geopolitical situation, especially whether the Red Sea can be reopened in the coming months.

VHBS pointed out, "We expect the market to maintain a slight upward trend in the short term, with transactions only hindered by limited ship supply