All-powerful Operating Systems of the Future

For those computer geeks who grew up in the 90s, you must be familiar with a plethora of Operating Systems such as Solaris, BSD, Palm OS, Linux, Unix, NeXTSTEP, BeOS, OS/2, RISC OS, the Amiga, Windows, and Macs. In contrast, the computer operating systems of today have become streamlined into mainly Windows, macOS, with most mobile devices running android & iOS. While networking & mainframes use Linux variations.

Why did this industry get condensed? And what is next?

While most earlier systems had more purpose-built operating systems, the operating systems of today are general and are used for a broad range of applications. Their use & functionality is propagated by the active development community, growing user base, & increasing hardware compatibility.

A small refresher about Operating Systems.

An operating system is the primary software that manages all the hardware and other software on a computer. The operating system, also known as an “OS,” interfaces with the computer’s hardware and provides services that applications can use.

What got me thinking?

For years I have been following android and iOS (the two leading mobile OS) observing that they are only becoming more similar to each other with every iteration. In this year's WWDC, Apple's iOS 14, added the final few pieces that were exclusive to android for a long time, such as picture in picture video, widgets in the home screen, etc. At the same event, Apple announced that future Macbooks would be powered by Apple Silicon. And that the new macs will natively be able to run all of the 1.7 Million apps from the App Store.

When I look at macOS & Windows, these have not had many feature updates in recent years. They are now mature Operating Systems for their device class.

So, is it time for mobile-OSes to also mature? What is in store for the future?

Current Operating systems are losing steam

Most advanced operating systems of today still have their roots in the first version of GUI developed by Xerox in the 1970s. I believe this is what limits them. Even the latest iOS version has its roots in Apple's Mac software which was originally written in the '90s. To get to the next level of devices and interactivity, the bridge must be crossed.

The operating systems need to be reworked starting from the ground up and having users at the center of the experience. The issue with this is this does not fit into the annual new-OS launch cycle that companies have come to follow. It is a ginormous task and could take multiple years & various iterations to get right.

Today's technologies have greater potential, it is important to have these aspects included in the foundational stone of our such all-powerful future OS!

Race to the future Operating System

With the recent announcements at WWDC 2020, Apple is well on its way to creating a stable OS for its devices & future devices of its partners. But, they are not the only ones in the race.

Microsoft had already attempted at a similar unified OS with its Windows 8 platform in 2012 (missed the timing, as always). The current version of Windows 10 is also capable of running on tablets, smartphones, PCs, and convertibles.

The other big player Google has also created Fucshia OS and experimented a lot with Chrome OS. Chrome (initially built as a browser), now powers millions of Chromebooks & can without doubt power smartphones and laptops too. Fucshia OS is also mighty scalable. Can work on anything from smart bulbs to desktop computers.

Amazon, with Fire OS, user shopping data, aws dominance, and Alexa's expertise, could also potentially jump in this race. (IoT, Cloud)

Facebook is said to be building its OS to combat android & iOS dominance. (AR/VR)

Samsung also has taken a shot at the future OS with Tizen.

But why are these highly profitable companies spending so much time and effort in a future OS? It has enormous upsides in the long run and is a part of their innovation portfolio.

The business incentive to developing the next Operating System

Putting aside the open-source operating systems, the companies that make the leading operating systems also happen to be leading tech. businesses. (No surprises there).

Though they all are going towards an operating system, the outcome they each see out of it is very different. To understand how an OS can translate into revenues, we need to look at the entire ecosystem.

(Android + Play Store + Google Ads) or (iOS + App Store + Apple services)

The operating system plays a key role in ensuring user lock-in and data generation. All this leads us to a future where all live Life-As-A-Service (LAAS).

The future won't just be lived as a service, we are also moving towards device-independence.

Going towards a device-independent future

The current Operating Systems are based on legacy architecture. This may not be helpful when trying to run them on smaller devices and with graphic-intensive applications.

Mobile OSes have evolved in the past, and their domination of the market has changed each decade. Palm OS, Symbian, have all held top spots in the past years. Android's current market dominance may not last as long as you think. The next best OS might be just around the corner. And with billions of smart devices sold each year, they may become the market leader sooner than you think.

The device-independent future is one where the OS wouldn't live on just one device. All user & application data would be on the cloud and be accessible across any device the user chooses or any screen/surface the user views. Some examples of what this could look like:

• AR/VR information on any surface
• Personalized bill-boards providing outdoor information & ads
• Voice-based interactions
• A passwordless future
• 80%+ prediction based usage

Though there have been several updates over the years to my Windows machine and your MacOS, the foundational elements remain the same. Most of these are still very device-dependent and are not and can never be as efficient as a mobile OS. And while the mobile OSes itself are not capable of handling future tasks, these desktop OSes are way behind.

3 Important factors for the success of any Operating System

• Software Developers - They are the most important people to help create products/services for various platforms.
• Hardware providers - Hardware still wouldn't be obsolete. Any company planning to build a future OS has to have its production or look for manufacturers with whom their OS would be compatible.
• Lots of $$$ - Challenging the current leaders with 80-90% market share won't be an easy task. Lots of money will have to be spent on driving adoption, getting the development community, & satisfaction of the user community.

What does it mean to dominate the future OS?

As you can see from this video, Android has enjoyed dominance for almost one full decade now. However, things could change soon, similar to the unstable market in 1999-2009. The rise of these newer OSes would challenge android, iOS in the mobile space.

There are tremendous benefits to be gained for the users as well. Some of them are:

• Healthcare & Financial info. integrated into your OS profile
• Intelligent updates with no downtime
• Even easier access to all the information on the web
• Enhanced privacy & security features
• Improved accessibility

Some less likely contenders in the Future OS race

This section is purely based on my understanding of the companies leading in trends that could shape our future and creating multiple products & services that benefit humanity at large.

1. Neuralink - Remember the device free future? Neuralink could be a significant breakthrough in that direction & could create a great new way for us to interact with the people around us & on the web.
2. Tesla - Tesla has great potential, with all the data they have collected, AI algorithms, hardware chips manufactured, they could have a more industry or transportation/sustainability specific OS offering.
3. Blockchain - Grouping the major players into the blockchain OS category. Having blockchain underlying the entire OS pipelines & applications makes it highly useful for security first applications. Some opensource offerings are LibertyOS, EOSIO, TRON, aelf, etc. These would, however, require huge investments.
4. Huawei - The company makes a surprising variety of products, services, hardware. Other than the pressure the company has had to go through due to recent bans, it is a very capable company with great promises in technology.

Conclusion

Whether one or more of these OSes dominate the future landscape, it is certainly going to be a different set of offerings from what we have today. It would take users a few days to adapt to the future OS, a few weeks for the hardware manufacturers, a few months for the developer community.

But ultimately, the conservations about privacy, ethical data usage, and antitrust would take years! And that is why it is all the more important to understand these trends and keep a check on the 'All-powerful Operating System of the Future'.