All to play for: What Ireland’s Government shakeup means for the next general election

10 months or less? In a possible signal that a general election in Ireland may in fact come quicker than expected, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris of Fine Gael opted for minimal changes in his recent Cabinet reshuffle.??

The newly elected Taoiseach has left all existing ministers in their current portfolios and only filled the positions vacated by himself and Enterprise Minister Simon Coveney, with Ministers Peter Burke and Patrick O’Donovan being promoted.?

This continuity means that Cabinet ministers can focus on delivering on their work plans, rather than learning a new brief and department, in the remaining time of this Government’s term. This desire to claim as many ‘quick wins’ as possible could signal an earlier than required election.?

At junior ministerial level, Taoiseach Harris was more ambitious, promoting three backbenchers Emer Higgins TD, Alan Dillon TD, and Colm Burke TD to junior ministerial ranks for the first time. He has also shuffled two of Fine Gael’s sitting junior ministers, Deputies Jennifer Carroll MacNeill and Neale Richmond.?

With a new Cabinet in place, Harris will hope to hit the ground running and he will be determined to make his mark. Fine Gael will also hope that the change of leadership will re-energise the electorate and put pressure on rivals Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in advance of the upcoming Local and European elections.?

Although Tánaiste Micheál Martin enjoys high public popularity, the question of his leadership will inevitably re-emerge in the media, as we get closer to the general election. Meanwhile, main opposition party Sinn Féin struggles as it is increasingly held to account by the public on issues such as immigration, hate speech, and the recent referenda.

If Harris sees progress on key issues and this is reflected in polling, a snap general election could be called.?

Harris Hop

The new Taoiseach will quickly turn his attention to the Local and European Elections due to be held on Friday 7 June to put Fine Gael in the best position for electoral success. Harris hopes that assuming the role of Taoiseach, and the leadership of the party, will give Fine Gael a much needed bolt of energy after 13 years in Government.?

His ascension comes as the party has suffered major setbacks through a series of high-profile announcements by senior figures not to run in the next election.??

The Local and European Elections will act as a litmus test for each of the Government parties. Over the coming weeks, lessons will be learnt about what matters most to the Irish electorate and what messages are likely to land best ahead of the General Election, which must be held no later than March 2025.??

Data from our Penta Group Live platform allows us to examine the sentiment towards the new Taoiseach and what is driving forces behind this. In the graph below we can see Harris’ neutral sentiment rating in advance of former Taoiseach Varadkar’s announcement that he will be stepping down. While sentiment towards Harris spiked positively as it became apparent that he was the front runner, media scrutiny of his historic political record and his chances of positively progressing key issues quickly drove this downward.?

Media were quick to remind us of Harris’s failings as Minister for Health on scoliosis waiting lists, A&E overcrowding, and cost overruns on the National Children’s Hospital, in particular. Amid broader uncertainty for Fine Gael, media queried Harris’s potential to bring back stability, but the Taoiseach’s conservative approach to the reshuffle may deal with that.

Of the issues associated with Harris in the media, it is no surprise that education gets the most mentions, with his recent portfolio as Minister for Further & Higher Education. In this role, Harris introduced many new initiatives that sought to boost access to further and higher education for lesser represented groups. His time as Minister was marked, however, by significant protests by PhD students over inadequate funding, issues in retaining trade apprenticeships, agitation by students unions and governance problems at universities.

The Taoiseach’s stated intention of tackling crime is a positive driver for Harris. His brief time covering the portfolio for Minister for Justice Helen McEntee’s maternity leave was deemed a success and this will speak to both his base and the electorate following a series of recent justice related events including a riot in Dublin.

One can also see the importance of immigration policy and the large proportion of neutral coverage shows that how Harris handles this issue will be greatly important to Fine Gael’s electoral chances.

300 Day Race

Taoiseach Harris faces a tight timeframe of roughly 300 days to make a difference. Headline commitments to deliver more housing, prioritise law and order, and assist SMEs struggling with the cost of business, were flagged at the party Ard Fheis (National Conference) in recent weeks. Short term policy wins will be prioritised given the limited timeframe available.

The new Taoiseach is faced with a dichotomy: deliver on key priorities as quickly as possible to ensure his party is well placed to face the electorate, while potentially seeking an opportune moment when his political rivals - Sinn Féin in particular - are vulnerable.