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Good morning from Albany, New York?where lawmakers will return to town after a?week-long?recess.?Top of the agenda?? Redistricting.?The fate of New York’s?Congressional map now lies in?the?hands?of legislators?after the Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) formally voted to advance a new map earlier this month. The Legislature can decide to adopt the IRC-drawn map, or scrap it and come up with their own as they did in 2020. The map?advanced by the IRC?includes modest changes in Central New York—making Republican Brandon Williams’ District a bit more Democratic—and makes GOP Rep. Mark Molinaro’s District more Republican, and Democrat Pat Ryan’s District more Democratic,?but does little?overall?to help Democrat’s chances of flipping key seats on Long Island or in the Hudson Valley, leading to calls from some lawmakers for the Legislature to reject the plan. State Senator James Skoufis, a Democrat from Orange County, has been the most outspoken, calling the maps a “disgrace,”?especially because it splits Orange County?while Senate and Assembly leadership have given little indication of how they are leaning, at least publicly. Governor Hochul offered that she will remain neutral saying, “There’s a process to be played out. The next step is (with) the Legislature and let's see what they come up. I'll not be putting my finger on the scale.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has no such reservations, coming out almost immediately against the map and urging New York Democrats to do the same. In a statement, he said, “The IRC map breaks apart six additional counties in New York State, including one that appears gratuitously designed to benefit an incumbent in the 19th?Congressional District. That would be a clear violation of the New York State Constitution.” Jeffries is keenly aware that the path for Democrats to win the House goes through New York and according to the Cook Political Report, four of the seats that Republicans flipped in 2020, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22, would all still lean towards the GOP under the IRC-proposed map.?
The Senate Democratic Conference held a caucus meeting on Monday while their Assembly colleagues met on Friday, though no agreement or path forward was agreed on. Privately, some lawmakers have expressed skepticism towards the map and would prefer to reject the proposal. When the New York Court of Appeals ordered the map to be redrawn, it set a deadline for the IRC to submit a proposal, but somewhat paradoxically, did not set a deadline for the Legislature to vote on those maps or to create their own maps. Preparing for the possibility that the Legislature does reject the map, Democrats are pursuing legislation that would require any future legal challenges be filed in State Supreme Court in Albany. Republicans successfully challenged the Legislature-drawn maps in 2020 win deep-red Steuben County, setting off the whole redistricting saga in the first place.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is equally focused on New York, traveling here last week to campaign for freshman Representatives Brandon Williams in NY-22 and Marc Molinaro in NY-19.? At a Central New York fundraiser for Rep. Williams, Johnson made it clear that New York, and NY-22 in particular, could decide whether the GOP keeps their majority, telling supporters, “This is one of the districts that is going to decide the fate of the country… This district may very well be one of the decision points on whether we keep the majority, grow the majority in the House.” Democrats have attempted to use the visit to tie Republican candidates to some of Johnson’s more conservative positions that may not be as popular in New York swing districts. In a statement, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said, “Marc Molinaro played a ‘pivotal role’ in making Mike Johnson — who wants to ban abortion and slash Social Security and Medicare — Speaker of the House and now, he has the gall to bring Johnson to Broome County.” Johnson would agree with that assessment, saying he told Molinaro “I owe you, bro” in reference to his support of Johnson’s Speakership. Whether that association hurts or helps Molinaro and other Republicans in districts won by President Biden in 2020 remains to be seen.
“Marc Molinaro played a ‘pivotal role’ in making Mike Johnson — who wants to ban abortion and slash Social Security and Medicare — Speaker of the House and now, he has the gall to bring Johnson to Broome County.”-?Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee?
State lawmakers in Albany are in the thick of budget rush, with the Senate and Assembly expected to release their respective one-house budgets?the week of March 4 (though that remains fluid with Redistricting expected to consume a great deal of conference time). For many in the Legislature, this budget season will be their last. This year has brought an unusually high number of resignations, either to retire or to seek higher office. Here is the list so far:?
Senate:?
?Assembly:?
Other branches of state government will be going through personnel shakeups as well. Parks Commissioner Erik Kulleseid announced last month that he will be leaving to join the Open Spaces Institute. This week, Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos announced he will be leaving government after running DEC for more than eight years. Also, Diane Burman, a longtime Commissioner of the Public Service Commission, announced she will not be seeking another term.?
In Washington, D.C., the government will officially hit the first of two funding deadlines this Friday, meaning a partial government shutdown could follow if Congress fails to act. Lawmakers are hoping to pass the first four funding bills, Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD before Friday’s deadline, giving themselves another week before the second deadline on March 8th to iron out more controversial issues like Homeland Security and Health and Human Services appropriations.?
The GOP Freedom Caucus is pressuring Speaker Johnson to include significant policy riders on issues like border security and abortion, or to pursue a year-long Continuing Resolution that enacts spending cuts across the board. Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) said in a letter to Johnson, “If we are not going to secure significant policy changes or even keep spending below the caps adopted by bipartisan majorities less than one year ago, why would we proceed when we could instead pass a year-long funding resolution that would save Americans $100 billion in year one?”
Despite the broad disagreements and short turnaround time, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer remains optimistic they can stave off a shutdown, telling reporters, “There's broad support in the Senate — and I believe in the House, where we worked with Speaker Johnson on the last bill — to not shut down the government and fund things.” Johnson and Schumer came to an agreement in January on a stopgap measure to avoid a shutdown and agreed on a deal to fund the government at $1.66 trillion, but where that money goes and what policy is attached to it is where things get complicated.
Senator Schumer is also pushing for a solution on another unresolved issue, the foreign aid package that garnered bipartisan support in the Senate and included $60 billion in military assistance for Ukraine. Schumer traveled with a Congressional delegation to Ukraine this past week where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and urged Speaker Johnson to take up the Senate’s bill. In an interview, Schumer said, “We need Speaker Johnson to make sure that we get that aid. If he put the bill on the floor, it would pass. There are a good number of Republicans in the House who know how important it is, and he has to see that history is on his back.” Johnson has pushed back,?citing the lack of action on the border, as the reason for blocking a vote on the package.?
Which issues will dominate the 2024 Legislative Sessions from D.C. to Albany?
Jack lays it out in our annual Legislative Preview.
Read it here.
South Carolina held its Republican presidential primary election on Saturday where former President Donald Trump soundly defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in her home state, dealing another blow to Haley’s beleaguered campaign. Trump beat Haley by more than 20 points and won all but three counties in a state that likely represented Haley’s last best chance to win a primary contest over the former President.?Haley has said she plan to remain in the race through Super Tuesday on March 5th, telling supporters, “In the next 10 days, another 21 states and territories will speak. They have the right to a real choice. Not a Soviet-style election with only one candidate.”?
Finally…
As if regular soccer is not difficult enough, these Brazilians are taking to the banks of the Amazon River to play ‘mudball.’?[Read more.]
See you next week!