All Fall Down

November 6, 2023?

Dear Leaders,?

Fall – the season of change.? We watch the trees change from a uniform green to a series of shades of red and orange, admiring the colors while sometimes failing to notice the reason therefore:? the leaves are dying.? As they fall from the trees, the reality sets in when we see the bare branches and piles of dead vegetation and feel the cold in the air.? This change is inevitable, as it is for organizations, and leaders who fail to read the signs, prepare, and react will fall to their end much like the leaves, while those who remain rooted in reality will endure.?

When times are good, it’s easy to forget that it never lasts, and that the change of seasons is inevitable in the professional world as it is in nature, including that which is beyond your control.? One minute, the sun is shining, your organization is humming along with high productivity, revenues are up, the people are happy, and the sky’s the limit.? Nothing can go wrong, until it does.? A virus breaks out that affects your people’s ability to work, your supply chain, your entire business model, and suddenly, the skies are dark and cloudy, you’re out of cash, you lay off workers, and before you know it, you’re in liquidation.? As the chilling reality sets in from the rapid change, you wonder if the sun will ever shine again.?

Even at my home in Southern California, it’s not always a warm sunny day at the beach.? Leaders know to watch not only the weather forecast, but also watch the skies and smell the air for harbingers of danger that can turn good times into bad, and also know to prepare not only for the predictable storms, but also for the earthquakes that strike without warning. ?Operational planning goes beyond the routine, for it must cover contingencies in expectation of the unexpected, and in consideration of three perspectives:?

??????????? Area of responsibility:? That for which you have direct control and accountability for what happens therein.?

??????????? Area of impact:? The circle in which that you do affects what happens beyond just your responsibility.??

??????????? Area of influence:? The sphere of things and events that affect your organization and operations and over which you have little to no control.??

As we noted in last December's Letter Expect the Unexpected, you cannot plan for every possible variable and event, as each of the three areas to consider expand, contract, and change constantly.? The scourge of covid taught us that even organizations that deal with public health were neither prepared nor ready for the magnitude of what they faced, and many a business with no backup plan withered and fell like the leaves from the trees.? While we recognize the inability to discern events such as a massive outbreak, leaders can plan nonetheless based on the realities of history and awareness and make contingency plans to not only survive in the event of abrupt changes but go beyond to thrive and come back stronger. ???

It is here where leadership makes the difference by knowing the history of your organization and factors affecting it, having plans in place, and keeping a weather eye on the horizon and beyond for danger.? The Boy Scout motto Be Prepared might seem simplistic in speaking, but it remains profound in practice, for the prepared leader is not only ready for the predictable, but better survives the unpredicted.?

So, what happens to the leader who falls from the tree?? If you choose to be the leaf, you simply wither and die, and become mulch mixed into the soil, and while you might provide a spot of nutrition, the tree doesn’t give you a second thought, and likewise the leader who lets failure be their end.? Leaders who choose to be seeds sprout anew and grow strong through the seasons to come, weathering every storm, standing strong through fire and flood alike.? Those who see this strength will seek shelter in it, for much like the strong and tall tree, you are an admirable and reassuring presence.?

The change of the seasons is like the passage of time for leaders, days of sun and warmth give way to clouds and cold, and days of calm are interrupted by calamity.? Those whose roots go deep grow strong and tall in the eyes of others and remain a respite of reassurance regardless of circumstances and stand season after season. ?????

Sincerely,

Tim