All eyes on Jackson Hole
Matt Curda
Helping Investors Understand Blockchain | Forbes Web3 | Blockchain Blue Chip Investment Fund | Market Updates | Lessons For Beginners
Dear Investors,
A big event is starting today, and we will closely watch the situation there, especially Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow.
Let’s explore what is happening and why.
Read online: https://newsletter.metainvestor.gg/
All eyes on Jackson Hole
Inflation, interest rates, and the FED…
A never-ending story we keep hearing from all sides for the last 12 months.
Today starts the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
What is it, and why should I care?
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an exclusive annual event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City that gathers central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and market experts from around the world (learn more).
The reason why investors care about it is because major policy announcements, especially from the U.S. Federal Reserve, are often made there.
Markets will be closely monitoring any signs of economic support, especially in the form of rate cuts, and talks around inflation and recession.
The caveat.
Markets anticipate rate cuts — so much so that 69.5% expect a 25 bps rate cut, and 30.5% expect an even bigger 50 bps rate cut*.
This means that if the FED signals rate cuts, markets will react positively, taking it as good news.
However, if the FED remains neutral or negative, the markets will take it as very bad news, which can lead to significant sell-offs —> both traditional stocks and crypto especially.
We should know more on Friday at 2 pm UTC time during the Fed Chair’s Jerome Powell speech.
Do you expect good news or bad news from the symposium?
Leave a comment and let me know! ??
BlackRock’s ETHA Crossed $1 Billion.
We are closing the first month since the ETH ETFs started trading on 23 July.
And we are down $458.5m.
Still the same reason —> high outflows from ETHE (Grayscale’s ETF) because of A.) high fees and B.) investors have been locked there for years.
Only 30% of ETHE has been sold; we still have another 70% that can either rotate into other ETFs with lower fees or be removed from the market.
However, there is a silver lining — BlackRock’s ETHA crossed $1 billion, making it again the biggest among other ETFs.
Meanwhile, BTC saw 8 positive days out of the last 10 trading days, bringing in $326,9m of net inflows.
My Thoughts
There are still forces pushing the price lower:
Mt. Gox is repaying creditors what they lost in its 2014 collapse. It has already returned 76%, with 34k BTC remaining (track here).
The German government has already sold its seized BTC, but there is a risk of the US government selling its Silk Road holdings.
Market makers made a big splash during the Monday crash, showing how much power they have on the price.
However, unless we see a big surprise from the macro (like Powell’s speech tomorrow, see above), we should be on a good track to have a strong September.
I’m waiting for a clear sign from the FED about the rate cuts.
Once we get that, I’ll increase my leverage going long ETH, Avax, and Solana.
Meanwhile, exploring DeFi protocols:
Regards,
Matt Curda