All Change in 2019

Royal Assent for Article 50 is imminent, but I cannot help feeling that the recent series of government fumbles, gaffes, alternative facts together with the arrogance of stomping party politics all over useful dissent, means that the next two years will change a lot more than our trading relationships with the rest of the world.

Some recent pieces of news worry me:

1. Firstly, the cost of not getting good trade agreements in place means we will end up reverting to World Trade Organisation rules (although Mr. Trump seems to want to interfere with this bastion, potentially making things even worse for us). It seems that the Brexit Minister cannot calculate the costs of having no deals with EU members, even though a report showing some figures was recently leaked to the press.
2. The House of Lords have criticised the department that will be responsible for negotiating deals with the top 15 priority countries saying that it lacks sufficient resources to do its job effectively. Remember the report produced by Deloitte that said it will cost another ￡300 million to 'resource-up' the department - the report so quickly dismissed by government?
3. The SNP's timely announcement that it wants a second referendum on devolution, something that could result with Scotland leaving the Union (with Northern Ireland closely behind). This despite polls showing 61% of Scots want to stay in the Union.

All this bodes for a very bumpy ride (if it ever gets started: article 50 will neeed to be triggered next week or the government will have to wait until June). A journey I expect that will be full of pratfalls, snubs, charmless offensives and the strong belief that we are better than everyone else and they are lucky to be trading with us.

We need to export much more than we do currently: not just to turn the trade deficit around, but to provide stability to our economy. Consumer demand cannot sustain a strong economy. A typical non-mortgage debt of ￡13,000 per household is not the right means to sustain growth (but it is better than the ￡30,000 of debt Osborne wanted us all to have to help him balance his books).

I predict that by 2019 the majority of British people will see the Conservative government for what it is and the clamour for an early general election will be irresistable. I predict that the current opposition party will be in no position to offer anything credible to British voters. This leaves a golden opportunity for a party truly representing the middle ground, to step in and do something that has been lacking in politics for a long, long time: change things for the better.

In addition to increasing the value and volume of exports (particularly from small and medium sized businesses), here is my manifesto for any party willing to step up to the mark. The application of World Trade Organisation rules will add 10% to the cost of cars and 14% to the cost of food and there will be a real need to raise taxes at a time when public services will be stretched beyond breaking point. 

1. Significantly raise taxes on the super rich and on large corporations.
2. Encourage people to buy local by reducing VAT to zero for home made/grown goods and services and selectively introduce tariffs on imports that compete with our own.
3. Create a 50 year infrastructure development plan that attracts private investment funding.
4. Regionalise health and education: put the professionals in charge and stop unnecessary testing/counting.
5. Incentivise the production of home made clean energy, creating a circular economy and reducing the cost of waste.
6. Avoid trade deals with any other country that seeks to compromise our journey to becoming a high knowledge/high pay economy with an adequately resourced public services sector.
7. Empower the voluntary and community sectors to address issues of inequality, inequity and exclusion. Help us truly become one nation thriving on diversity.
8. Incentivise investment in small and medium sized manufacturing companies and at the same time protect home made innovation from foreign exploitation.
9. Implement universal basic income that will reduce the cost of poverty using crypto currencies to administer the system.
10. Reduce the costs of ownership: for example explore mobility as a service as a viable alternative to car ownership.

I welcome your feedback.