ALERT: Prolonged Tropical Rain Event May Materialize for Florida Next Week & Could Include Tropical Storm-Force Winds

???????? ? ?RISKAlert?# 2005 - ??October? 4, ?2024?? - State of ?Florida ?

A complex, two-part storm system is forecast to develop this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico, and the end result is likely to be a drenching rain for most of Florida next week, or even a drenching rain plus tropical storm-force winds and conditions!?

Expert a wave of low pressure to lift out of the Caribbean this weekend and move into the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, residual energy from a? dying Pacific Ocean tropical storm will move across central Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche, where a tropical depression is expected to develop from the leftover remnants. By Monday, the two features are expected to merge into a consolidated area of low pressure in the central Gulf.

The chances of this system developing into a stronger event are roughly 50/50. If wind shear is strong, the system will likely remain a disorganized tropical rainstorm, which would bring heavy rainfall to Florida Monday into Tuesday. But if wind shear is weaker, the system could develop into a named tropical storm or possibly even a minimal hurricane by early next week and then move across Florida with damaging winds, dangerous storm surge and flooding.

5:00 AM UPDATE: Model guidance today favors a stronger storm developing in the Gulf early next week. Nearly all of the models now bring a tropical storm into the southern half of Florida on Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. ?Timing and intensity differences remain and these issues are not likely to be resolved until late this weekend.

This track and strength this forecast is subject to change over the next 72 hours. We urge residents in South Florida to closely monitor this potential storm event throughout the weekend for further official updates. IF A tropical storm -- or even a strong tropical rainstorm forms, there will be little time for preparations to be completed.

Listen to local media reports or NOAA Weather Alert Radio broadcasts for the latest information or click onto www.nhc.noaa.gov.?

Regardless of what develops in the Gulf, Florida is expected to receive heavy amounts of rain from this system next week. The storm system will slowly be steered across South Florida, where it is expected to unleash heavy rainfall.

Rainfall estimates vary greatly from model-to-model, but flooding from slow-moving rain columns will be major concern before the storm exits the Peninsula later in the week. Isolated incidents of severe weather also will be possible along the storm’s track over land.

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