ALERT - Mass Migration Event – Caravan 46 (Day 1: SUN - 26JAN25)
Background: This is an alert to report a mass migration event regarding the formation of Caravan No. 46, that began forward movement on or about Sunday, January 26, 2025, comprised of at approximately several thousand (2,000) migrants that departed Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico with the intention of reaching the U.S. border at an undisclosed crossing point. ???
This is the 46th caravan that has been detected through open sources and tracked by the U.S.-Mexico Center of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Houston since we began tracking the migrant mass movement phenomenon in 2017. Of particular interest to our continuing analysis and reporting is whether migrant caravan organizers, including individuals, charity organizations or non-profit organizations, are forming caravans as a result of impending or actual U.S. government immigration policy changes or if the cartels are forming caravans for their own operational purposes, or any other purpose.
Critical Facts
Caravan Name(s): None identified.
Date of Departure: January 26, 2025
Destination: Caravan 46 is expected to march to Mexico City.
Place of Departure: Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico (Mexico-Guatemala Border)
Number of Migrant Marchers: 2,000 at onset.
Demographics: Men, women with infants and children, family groups.
Nationalities: Venezuela, Cuba?
Unofficial Spokesperson: None identified.
Pull Factors: None identified
Push Factors: Unemployment.
Traction (Day 1 / 26JAN25):
Caravan 46 (C46) is the fourth migrant caravan that has taken foot from Tapachula in 2015. C46 is comprised of approximately 2,000 marchers and departed Tapachula on Sunday, January 26, 2025.
Policy Developments Since January 20, 2025 – President Trump’s Inauguration:
1.???? The CBP.gov website has posted the following notice about the CBP One App, “Recent Updates. Effective January 20, 2025, the functionalities of CBP One? that previously allowed undocumented aliens to submit advance information and schedule appointments at eight southwest border ports of entry is no longer available, and existing appointments have been cancelled.[i]”
2.???? Militarization of the U.S.-Mexico Border. ?The U.S. Northern Command published a Press Release on January 24, 2025, relating to the active-duty deployments to the U.S. southern border with Mexico.[ii]
From the U.S. Army:
Headquarters, 89th Military Police Brigade, Fort Cavazos, Texas
Headquarters, 720th Military Police Battalion, Fort Cavazos, Texas
401st Military Police Company, Fort Cavazos, Texas
202nd Military Police Company, Fort Bliss, Texas
Headquarters, 716th Military Police Battalion, Fort Campbell, Kentucky
23rd Military Police Company, Fort Drum, New York
549th Military Police Company, Fort Stewart, Georgia
530th Combat Engineer Company-Armored, Fort Stewart, Georgia
977th Military Police Company, Fort Riley, Kansas
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41st Combat Engineer Company-Armored, Fort Riley, Kansas
569th Combat Engineer Company-Armored, Fort Carson, Colorado
Headquarters, 759th Military Police Battalion, Fort Carson, Colorado
66th Military Police Company, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington
From the U.S. Marine Corps:
Detachment from 1st Combat Engineer Battalion, 1st Marine Division, Camp Pendleton, California
Detachment from 7th Engineer Support Battalion, 1st Marine Logistics Group, Camp Pendleton, California
USNORTHCOM further reported that these approximately 1,500 active-duty personnel from the U.S. Army and the U.S. Marine Corps are deploying to the southern border to augment the approximately 2,500 service members already deployed supporting Customs and Border Protection’s southern border mission. These military forces will support enhanced detection and monitoring efforts and repair and emplace physical barriers.
3.???? Designation of Mexico’s Cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
President Trump issued an Executive Order citing that “the Cartels have engaged in a campaign of violence and terror throughout the Western Hemisphere that has not only destabilized countries with significant importance for our national interests but also flooded the United States with deadly drugs, violent criminals, and vicious gangs. The Cartels functionally control, through a campaign of assassination, terror, rape, and brute force nearly all illegal traffic across the southern border of the United States.? In certain portions of Mexico, they function as quasi-governmental entities, controlling nearly all aspects of society.? The Cartels’ activities threaten the safety of the American people, the security of the United States, and the stability of the international order in the Western Hemisphere.? Their activities, proximity to, and incursions into the physical territory of the United States pose an unacceptable national security risk to the United States.” Other criminal entities may be similarly designated within or after the 14 days of the order.[iii]
President Trump issued additional immigration policy executive orders that are being tracked to assess their efficacy. Reporting will follow.
Policy Impacts:
No Effect on Mass Movements.? It is noteworthy to mention that despite the enactment of these and other immigration control measures, the over 2,000 marchers that comprise Caravan 46 have apparently not been deterred in their drive to reach the United States. Unfortunately, unless a marcher declares his participation in a specific caravan, after their arrival in the U.S., there is no method in place to track these marchers and thereby better assess policy impacts such as those being implemented by Trump.
Repatriation Flights. In the week since the inauguration, Trump also immediately began repatriation flights of criminal and other migrants by transporting them in U.S. military aircraft to their countries of origin. Some countries have waived off the U.S. flights and the repatriation of their own citizens, requiring those who were rebuffed by their own nations to be dropped off in countries not their own.
On January 26, 2025, Colombian President Gustavo Petro offered the use of his presidential plane for the return of migrants from the US after refusing the entry of two U.S. military aircraft carrying Colombian citizens that were expelled from the U.S. Petro also called for a meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) to address the migration crisis, echoing call from Mexico’s Sheinbaum for an urgent meeting to discuss responses to Trumps migration Policies.[iv]
Updates: This mass movement alert will be amended if, or as, the Caravan gains traction and information becomes available.
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[i] CBP One? Mobile Application
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[ii] Active-duty forces to bolster security at U.S. southern border
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[iii] Designating Cartels And Other Organizations As Foreign Terrorist Organizations And Specially Designated Global Terrorists, EXECUTIVE ORDER, January 20, 2025.
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[iv] Colombia: Petro offers presidential plane for the return of migrants from the US and calls for a CELAC meeting.
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